Market evolution: Dog or cat food retail (CN 230910) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade dynamics of dog and cat food prepared for retail sale (CN 230910) by the European Union with non-EU countries from 2015 to 2025. The analysis focuses on identifying the main trends in trade volumes, values, prices, geographic patterns, and underlying structural shifts. The data reveals a market characterized by robust growth, significant price inflation, and a strategic reorientation of trade flows, which have collectively reshaped the EU's global position in this sector. The full scope and definitions of the product can be reviewed in the dashboard overview.

1. Robust Growth Fueled by Rising Unit Values

The EU's trade in pet food has expanded substantially over the decade, with the total value of trade (exports + imports) more than doubling. This expansion was driven by a combination of increasing physical volumes and, more significantly, by escalating unit values.

1.1 Exports Outpace Imports, Widening the Trade Surplus

The EU has maintained and strengthened its position as a net exporter. The trade surplus grew from €927 million in 2015 to €2.37 billion in 2025, an increase of 155%. This was primarily fueled by exports, whose value grew by 134% to over €4 billion, outstripping the 109% growth in import values to €1.66 billion.

1.2 Price Inflation Outstrips Volume Growth

The increase in trade value was largely driven by rising prices rather than proportional volume increases. Export volumes rose by 45%, while export unit values increased by 61%. The effect was even more pronounced for imports, where a 27% rise in volume was accompanied by a 65% surge in unit prices. This points to broader inflationary pressures, a shift towards premium products, or increased costs in the supply chain.

A detailed breakdown of these trade flows is available in the general overview section.

2. Geographic Reconfiguration of Trade Flows

The decade witnessed a significant reorientation of the EU's key trading partners, characterized by deepening ties with some neighbors and a rapid rise of new suppliers.

2.1 The UK Remains the Anchor Partner

The United Kingdom is by far the EU's largest trading partner for pet food, accounting for the top share in both exports and imports. However, its role has evolved. While the value of EU exports to the UK grew by 86% to €1.37 billion, imports from the UK saw a slight contraction of 8%, suggesting a strengthening of the EU's competitive position or shifting supply chains post-Brexit.

2.2 Rapid Ascent of New Import Suppliers

The most dramatic shift in the import landscape has been the rise of China and Serbia. Import values from China surged by 507%, from €67 million to €409 million, while imports from Serbia exploded by 857%, from €10 million to €94 million. Thailand also solidified its position as a major supplier, with import values rising 153% to €336 million. This diversification has reduced import concentration, as shown by the decline in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) from 2,236 to 1,596.

2.3 Export Growth Driven by Ukraine, Turkey, and Switzerland

Export growth has been geographically broad. The most explosive growth occurred with Ukraine (+471%) and Turkey (+585%), reflecting deepening economic integration or market capture. Mature markets like Switzerland (+122%) and Norway (+96%) also showed strong performance. Russia, once a key market, saw a marginal decline (-11%), likely influenced by geopolitical events.

The geographic concentration of both exports and imports has decreased over the period, indicating a more diversified and potentially resilient trade network. You can explore the evolution of partner countries in the by-country section.

3. Industrial Expansion, Increased Specialisation, and Selective Vulnerabilities

Underlying the trade figures is a story of significant EU industrial expansion and changing market structure, coupled with new vulnerabilities in supply chains.

3.1 Domestic Production Booms

EU production of pet food grew massively in value (+228%) and quantity (+78%) between 2015 and 2025. This expansion underpins the strong export performance and has made the EU increasingly self-sufficient. The net import reliance ratio turned increasingly negative (from -6.5% to -15.3%), confirming the EU's status as a strong net exporter in this sector.

3.2 Increased Specialisation in Key Member States

The production boom has been led by specific Member States. In 2025, Hungary, Poland, Lithuania, and Czechia showed the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA), indicating strong export specialisation. Poland stands out, combining high specialisation (RCA of 2.35) with a large production share (15.6%), and its exports grew by an exceptional 948% over the decade. This indicates a rapid industrial take-off in Central and Eastern Europe.

3.3 Price Shocks and Supply Chain Volatility

The period was not without disruptions. Notable price shocks were detected in the data. For instance, the unit value of imports from Thailand spiked abnormally in 2022, contributing to broader import price inflation. Similarly, exports to Ukraine show high volatility (coefficient of variation of 0.40), reflecting the unstable environment following 2022. While overall trade patterns are robust, these events highlight the sensitivity to geopolitical and supply-side shocks.

The evolving industrial structure and specialisation patterns can be further investigated in the market structure section.

Conclusion

The EU market for retail pet food has undergone a transformation over the 2015–2025 period. It has evolved into a highly industrialized, export-oriented sector characterized by strong value growth, rising unit values, and increased geographic diversification of trade flows. The growth has been underpinned by a significant expansion of domestic production, particularly in Central and Eastern European Member States, which have developed strong export specialisation. While the EU's overall trade position is robust, the data also reveals vulnerabilities, such as high price volatility with certain partners and sensitivity to geopolitical shocks. The decade's trends point towards a mature yet dynamic industry that has successfully adapted to global market conditions, consolidating the EU's role as a major global player. A more granular view of the product segments driving these trends is available in the product breakdown.