Market evolution: Pet food (CN 23091051) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyzes the trade dynamics of EU external trade (i.e., trade with non-EU countries) for the specific pet food product under customs code 23091051 between 2015 and 2025. The period has been characterized by robust growth for the European Union as a net exporter. Key trends include a strengthening trade surplus, significant price appreciation, a notable shift in import sources, and a substantial increase in domestic production, underscoring the sector's growing economic importance and evolving global supply chains.
1. A Decade of Export-Led Growth and an Expanding Surplus
The EU's trade in this product segment has grown markedly in value terms, though the growth in volume has been more moderate, indicating a significant role for price increases. The EU has solidified its position as a major global supplier.
The EU's trade balance has strengthened considerably over the period.
The EU's trade balance for CN 23091051 grew from €427 million in 2015 to €678 million in 2025, an increase of nearly 59%. This persistent and growing surplus reflects the EU's strong competitive advantage in this niche of the pet food market.
Export value growth has significantly outpaced volume growth.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export Value (EUR) | 520,236,197 | 811,056,424 | +55.9% |
| Export Quantity (tonnes) | 343,597 | 361,885 | +5.3% |
| Export Price (EUR/tonne) | 1,514 | 2,241 | +48.0% |
This data, viewable in the General Overview, reveals that over half of the export value growth was driven by a near 50% increase in unit value, rather than by selling vastly larger quantities.
Domestic production has expanded dramatically, supplying both internal and external demand.
Production figures, available from the Market Structure section, show that EU production quantity increased by 78.2% (from 5.68 to 10.12 billion kg) and production value surged by 228.3% (from €5.03 to €16.5 billion). This expansion indicates a scaling-up of the industry and a likely shift towards higher-value product mixes.
2. Shifting Trade Partnerships and Geopolitical Realignments
The landscape of EU trade partners has undergone significant reshuffling, reflecting broader geopolitical and economic changes. The market has become less concentrated on the import side while key export destinations have diversified or changed.
Import sources have diversified away from traditional partners.
The concentration of imports (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, HHI) decreased by 32.7%, signaling a less concentrated supplier base. While the United Kingdom remains the dominant import partner, its share has fluctuated. Notably, imports from China (+599%), Serbia (+325%), and Türkiye (emerging from near-zero) have grown substantially, partly offsetting declines from the United States (-79%) and Canada (-28%).
Export destinations highlight strategic shifts and volatility.
The top export partners table reveals stark contrasts:
| Partner Country | Export Value Change (2015-2025) | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | +107.7% | Post-Brexit trade continues to be robust. |
| Russian Federation | -96.4% | Near-total collapse, likely due to sanctions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. |
| Ukraine | +285.0% | A major new market, potentially linked to EU support and closer economic ties. |
| Australia | +92.0% | Significant growth in a distant market. |
| Japan | -39.2% | Decline in a traditionally strong market. |
This shift underscores how geopolitical events and trade agreements directly reshape commercial flows in this sector.
3. Price Dynamics, Production Concentration, and Strategic Vulnerabilities
Underlying the aggregate trends are clear patterns of price inflation, concentrated production within the EU, and a changing profile of the EU's trade autonomy.
Price shocks have been identified, with the UK being a major driver.
The Volatility & Shocks analysis detected a significant price shock in imports from the United Kingdom centered on 2020, with an abnormality score of 8.5 and a 19% price shift. This coincides with the onset of Brexit-related trade adjustments and the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting major cost or logistics disruptions in this critical supply line.
Production is highly concentrated in a few specialized Member States.
Data on specialization reveals that in 2025, Hungary, Czechia, Poland, the Netherlands, and Germany were the most specialized producers (based on Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage). These five countries collectively accounted for over 72% of the EU's total production value, indicating a high geographical concentration.
The EU's net exporter position has strengthened while trade openness has increased.
The net import reliance ratio fell from -6.5% to -15.3%, confirming the EU's deepening role as a net supplier to global markets. Concurrently, both trade intensity and export propensity increased by 64% and 81%, respectively. This shows that the EU's pet food industry has become more integrated into, and reliant upon, international trade.
Conclusion
Over the 2015-2025 decade, the EU market for pet food (CN 23091051) demonstrated strong export-led growth, marked by a significant increase in value driven largely by rising prices. The trade landscape was profoundly reshaped by geopolitical events, most notably Brexit and the war in Ukraine, which redirected trade flows away from Russia and the UK and towards new partners like Ukraine, China, and Serbia. Domestically, production underwent a major expansion, becoming more concentrated in Central and Western Europe. While the EU's net exporter status has solidified, the increased trade intensity and price volatility highlight the sector's growing exposure to global market dynamics and supply chain risks. The period concludes with the EU as a larger, more valuable, but also more interconnected player in the global pet food trade.