Market evolution: Dog and cat food (CN 23091011) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in dog and cat food preparations containing starch, glucose, or similar ingredients (customs code 23091011) between 2015 and 2025. The period was characterized by robust expansion in both trade flows, fundamentally strengthening the EU's position as a major net exporter in this global market. Based on the provided data, we will examine the primary dynamics driving this growth, the shifting landscape of trade partners, and the EU's evolving level of market autonomy.
I. A Decade of Strong and Accelerating Growth in Trade Value
The 2015–2025 period witnessed a dramatic expansion in the absolute value of the EU's trade in this pet food category. The growth in exports significantly outpaced that of imports, leading to a substantial increase in the trade surplus.
Exports grew faster than imports, widening the trade surplus.
The value of EU exports surged from €563 million in 2015 to €1.57 billion in 2025, a remarkable increase of 178.8%. During the same period, import values grew by 130.7%, from €414 million to €954 million. This differential growth rate meant the EU's trade balance strengthened from a surplus of €150 million in 2015 to €617 million in 2025, an increase of 312%.
Price increases, particularly for imports, fueled value growth alongside volume expansion.
While trade volumes also grew, a significant portion of the value increase was driven by rising unit prices. Export volumes grew by 77.7% (from 411,571 to 731,558 tonnes), and the average price per tonne increased by 56.9%. The dynamics were even more pronounced for imports: volumes grew by a more modest 27.2%, but the average price per tonne spiked by 81.4%. This indicates inflationary pressures or a shift in the product mix of imports towards higher-value items.
| Flow | Value Change (2015–2025) | Quantity Change (2015–2025) | Price Change (2015–2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports | +178.8% | +77.7% | +56.9% |
| Imports | +130.7% | +27.2% | +81.4% |
II. Shifting Geographies: Diversifying Imports and Consolidating Exports
The geographical composition of the EU's trade in this sector underwent a profound transformation, characterized by a major realignment of import sources and a consolidation around key export markets.
Import sourcing shifted dramatically from Europe towards Asia.
The most striking trend was the decline of traditional European suppliers and the meteoric rise of Asian ones. The United Kingdom and Switzerland, top suppliers in 2015, saw their share of EU imports fall sharply. In their place, Thailand and China emerged as dominant sources. Thailand’s import value grew by 174% to become the largest single supplier at €325 million in 2025. China experienced an even more dramatic 892% increase, reaching €294 million. The rise of Liechtenstein is also notable, though this may reflect intra-group transfers or changes in trade classification.
The United Kingdom cemented its role as the EU's primary export destination.
While the import side diversified away from the UK, the UK's importance as an export market for the EU intensified. Exports to the UK doubled in value, rising from €354 million to €709 million, accounting for roughly 45% of the total export value in 2025. This suggests the UK market is highly integrated with and reliant on the EU for this product category, likely amplified by post-Brexit trade dynamics.
Evolution of Top Trade Partners (2015 vs. 2025)
| Imports | Exports | |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 Top 3 | 1. United Kingdom 2. Thailand 3. Switzerland |
1. United Kingdom 2. Switzerland 3. Ireland |
| 2025 Top 3 | 1. Thailand 2. China 3. United Kingdom |
1. United Kingdom 2. Ukraine 3. Russian Federation |
III. Strengthened Production Base and Increased Export-Led Autonomy
The growth in trade was underpinned by a massive expansion of the EU's domestic production capacity, which in turn has enhanced the bloc's trade autonomy and export propensity.
Domestic production growth outpaced trade, reducing net import reliance.
EU production quantity grew by 78.2% (from 5.68 billion kg to 10.12 billion kg), while the production value grew even faster by 228.3% (from €5 billion to €16.5 billion). This robust expansion allowed the EU to service its growing export demand from its own production base. Consequently, the net import reliance ratio deepened from -6.5% to -15.3%, confirming an increased surplus and greater self-sufficiency.
The EU has become more specialized and integrated into global pet food markets.
Production growth translated into a significant increase in the EU's export propensity (export share of domestic production), which rose from 13% to 23.4%. The overall trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) also increased, indicating a more globally integrated sector. Within the EU, Poland and Hungary have developed a strong specialization in this product category, with Poland becoming a major exporter.
Conclusion
The EU's market for CN 23091011 has undergone a significant transformation from 2015 to 2025. It is no longer just a large market but has solidified its role as a major net exporter with a strengthened production base. The key dynamics have been: (1) aggressive expansion of trade value driven by both volume and price, (2) a decisive geopolitical shift in import sourcing from Europe to Asia, and (3) a massive scaling-up of domestic production that has increased the EU's export capability and market autonomy. The sector now appears more resilient, more export-oriented, and more deeply integrated into global supply chains, with the United Kingdom remaining its most crucial partner on the export side.