Market evolution: Pet food (CN 23091031) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of European Union trade in a specific category of retail-ready dog or cat food (customs code 23091031) over the period 2015–2025. The product is defined as containing glucose or similar syrups and a moderate starch content (over 10% but not more than 30%), with little or no milk products. The analysis is based on annual trade data, focusing on the EU's trade with non-EU countries. Over the decade, the sector has demonstrated robust growth, significant geographical diversification, and a strengthening of the EU's competitive position as a net exporter.

1. Sustained Growth Fueled by Rising Prices and Expanding Production

The EU's trade in this pet food category has expanded substantially in both value and volume, though growth dynamics differ between exports and imports. The overall increase is characterized by a significant rise in unit values, indicating a move towards higher-value products or inflationary pressures.

Export performance has outpaced imports, leading to a widening trade surplus.

EU exports grew dramatically from €407.8 million in 2015 to €961.8 million in 2025, an increase of 135.8%. While export volume also rose by 48.9% (from 265,475 to 395,418 tonnes), the growth in value was driven largely by a 58.3% increase in the average export price (from €1,536 to €2,432 per tonne) (View general trade overview). EU imports also grew, but more moderately, rising from €165.8 million to €381.0 million (129.8% in value). Import volume grew by 28.1%, accompanied by a sharper 79.4% increase in import prices. Consequently, the EU's trade balance improved by 140.0%, from a surplus of €242.0 million in 2015 to €580.8 million in 2025.

Domestic production growth underpins the strong export capacity.

The expansion of EU trade is supported by substantial growth in intra-EU production. Production quantity increased by 78.2% from 2015 to 2025, rising from approximately 5.68 billion kg to 10.12 billion kg. Production value grew even more sharply, by 228.3%, from €5.03 billion to €16.50 billion (View production volumes). This indicates a significant increase in the average value of output within the EU, which is reflected in the rising export prices.

2. Geographical Diversification and the Rise of New Trading Partners

The landscape of EU trade partners for this product has shifted markedly, with traditional relationships evolving and new, high-growth partners emerging. This diversification is evident in both export destinations and import sources.

EU exports have pivoted towards Türkiye and Asia, while some traditional markets declined.

While the United Kingdom remained the largest single export destination, its share grew only modestly (+43.7%). The most striking developments were the surge in exports to Türkiye (+638.0%, from €13.7 million to €100.8 million) and Ukraine (+381.2%). Japan also grew steadily, becoming the second-largest market. Conversely, exports to the Russian Federation collapsed by 85.7% between 2015 and 2025. This shift indicates a strategic reorientation of EU pet food exports towards high-growth regions and away from a market impacted by geopolitical and trade policy changes (View top export partners).

Import sources have diversified, with explosive growth from Serbia and China.

The UK remained the EU's primary import source for this product category, with imports growing by 81.5% to €116.6 million. However, the most dramatic changes occurred among other partners. Imports from Serbia skyrocketed by 20,779% (from €0.2 million to €47.0 million), making it the fourth-largest source. Imports from China grew by 843.3%, and from Türkiye by 29,826%. This rapid diversification reduced import concentration; the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value fell by 23.8%, from 3035 to 2312, indicating a less concentrated and potentially more resilient import base (View concentration index).

3. Strengthened Competitiveness and Specialization within the EU

The EU has not only increased its trade volume but has also solidified its position as a net exporter with a growing competitive advantage. This is driven by increasing specialization in several Member States.

The EU is a consistent net exporter with an intensifying trade focus.

The EU's net import reliance was negative throughout the period, moving from -6.5% in 2015 to -15.3% in 2025. This confirms the bloc's status as a net exporter, a position that strengthened over time. Concurrently, both trade intensity (from 18.6% to 30.5%) and export propensity (from 13.0% to 23.4%) increased significantly, indicating that the EU's pet food industry is increasingly oriented towards international markets.

Production is becoming more geographically specialized within the EU.

The data on revealed comparative advantage shows a clear trend towards specialization in certain Member States. In 2025, Czechia, Poland, and France were the most specialized producers, exhibiting high positive RSCA values, meaning they have a strong competitive advantage in this specific pet food category (View specialization). This specialization is mirrored in export data, where France, Germany, Italy, and notably Czechia (with a 1,355% increase) saw the largest absolute export values. This suggests the emergence of specialized production hubs within the EU single market.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in CN 23091031 pet food has been characterized by strong, value-driven growth, underpinned by expanding domestic production. The sector has demonstrated considerable resilience through a significant diversification of its trading partnerships, reducing dependency on any single market. This, coupled with a deepening competitive advantage and increased specialization among Member States, has solidified the EU's role as a major net exporter in this niche segment of the global pet food market. The trends point towards a mature industry focused on value addition and global market integration.