Market evolution: Starch-free pet food retail (CN 23091090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade evolution of starch-free, milk-product-free dog or cat food for retail sale (Customs code CN 23091090) by the European Union with non-EU countries from 2015 to 2025. Over this period, the EU market for this specialized pet food segment experienced robust growth, structural diversification, and deepening integration into global supply chains. Key dynamics include a dramatic expansion of the EU's trade surplus, a significant rise in unit values for exports indicating possible product premiumization, and a shift towards more geographically diversified trade partnerships. These trends occurred alongside substantial growth in EU domestic production.

1. A Decade of Accelerating Growth and Strengthening Net Export Position

The period from 2015 to 2025 was characterized by strong, sustained expansion for this product category in EU external trade, with the bloc firmly establishing itself as a net exporter.

• Sustained Growth in Trade Values and Volumes

  The EU's external trade for CN 23091090 grew substantially. The total value of exports to non-EU partners increased by 199.4%, rising from €215 million in 2015 to €644 million in 2025. Import growth, while also positive at 60.6%, was more moderate, moving from €114 million to €183 million. This divergence underscores the EU's growing competitive advantage and export orientation in this niche. Export quantities grew by 37.8% (from ~202,000 tonnes to ~279,000 tonnes), while import quantities grew by 53.4% (from ~44,000 tonnes to ~68,000 tonnes). The sharper rise in value compared to volume reflects significant price dynamics.

• Divergent Price Evolution and Expanding Trade Surplus

  A key driver of the growing trade surplus was the dramatic increase in export unit prices. The average export price rose by 117.2%, from €1,064 per tonne in 2015 to €2,310 per tonne in 2025. In contrast, the average import price increased by a mere 4.7% (€2,561 to €2,682 per tonne). This suggests the EU increasingly exports higher-value or more specialized products while importing more price-stable or lower-value goods. Consequently, the EU's trade balance for this product widened impressively, from a surplus of €101 million in 2015 to a record €461 million in 2025, a 355.3% increase.

• Robust Expansion of Domestic Production

  The growth in trade is supported by a significant expansion in the EU's domestic production capacity. Production quantity (in kg) grew by 78.2% over the available data window, while production value surged by 228.3%. This indicates that the industry scaled output and successfully moved toward higher-value production, fueling the export boom.

2. Diversification of Partners and Evolving Internal Specialization

The structure of EU trade for this product has transformed, with trade becoming more geographically diverse and internal specialization patterns becoming clearer.

• Shifting Geographic Centers of Trade

  The EU's most important trading partners changed markedly. While the United Kingdom remained the largest partner for both exports and imports, other destinations grew in prominence for EU exports, notably the United States (+1,268.7%), Switzerland (+256.5%), and Norway (+542.3%). On the import side, new significant suppliers emerged, including Türkiye (from €170k to €15.3m) and Serbia (from €2.4m to €15.1m), while traditional suppliers like Thailand saw a decline (-36.4%).

• Declining Market Concentration

  Market concentration, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), fell sharply for both exports and imports. The export HHI dropped by 57.1% (from 1,605 to 688), and the import HHI fell by 40.9% (from 3,530 to 2,085). This signals that the EU now trades with a wider array of partners, reducing dependency on any single market and enhancing supply chain resilience.

• Internal EU Specialization Patterns

  Specialization indices reveal that not all EU Member States contribute equally. In 2025, Poland (RSCA: 0.483), Lithuania (0.440), and Spain (0.384) showed the strongest revealed comparative advantage in producing this good, with large production shares. Conversely, countries like Malta, Luxembourg, and Ireland were the least specialized, with negligible or negative comparative advantages. This points to a concentration of production in specific EU regions.

3. Increased Global Integration and Emerging Supply-Side Risks

The EU's deeper integration into the global market for this product brought efficiency but also introduced new vulnerabilities, as evidenced by volatility and price shocks.

• Declining Import Reliance and Rising Trade Intensity

  The EU's net import reliance shifted decisively from -6.5% in 2015 to -15.3% in 2025, confirming its status as a growing net exporter. Simultaneously, trade intensity (exports + imports as a share of production) increased from 18.6% to 30.5%, and export propensity (exports as a share of production) rose from 13.0% to 23.4%. This indicates that the EU pet food industry is increasingly oriented towards and dependent on global markets.

• Evidence of Price Volatility and Supply Shocks

  Analysis of volatility reveals significant price instability in certain trade relationships. Coefficients of variation were particularly high for exports to Viet Nam (2.07) and Philippines (2.89). Specific shock events were detected, including a massive +433.8% price shock in exports to Viet Nam centered in 2022, and a significant +14% price shock in imports from the United Kingdom in 2020. These events highlight the potential for abrupt market disruptions.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU market for starch-free, retail-packed pet food (CN 23091090) underwent a profound transformation. It evolved from a balanced trader into a dominant net exporter, achieving a €461 million trade surplus by 2025. This growth was powered by a 199% surge in export value, significantly driven by a 117% increase in unit export prices, suggesting successful premiumization and a move up the value chain. Structurally, the market became more diverse, with a marked decrease in trade concentration and the rise of new major partners like the United States for exports and Türkiye for imports. Domestically, production more than doubled in value, underpinning the export boom. However, this increased global integration also heightened exposure to volatility and supply chain risks, as evidenced by detected price shocks. The EU pet food sector now stands as a larger, more globally competitive, but also more externally dependent, industry.