Market evolution: Sugar and confectionery (CN 17) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's external trade in Sugars and Sugar Confectionery (CN 17) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading covers four sub-categories: cane or beet sugar (1701), other sugars and sugar syrups (1702), molasses (1703), and sugar confectionery including white chocolate (1704). Over this decade, the EU's trade in these products underwent a profound transformation. The bloc shifted from a position of near-balance to one of strong net export surplus, with the trade balance tripling from €903 million to €2.76 billion. This occurred despite a 15.8% decline in domestic production volumes (from 34.1 to 28.7 billion kg), as production value rose 24.2% to €27.8 billion on the back of higher prices. Three interconnected dynamics drove this evolution: a structural rebalancing of trade flows, a dramatic escalation in global sugar prices, and a wholesale reordering of the EU's trade partnerships following the abolition of sugar production quotas in 2017.

1. From Near-Balance to Net Exporter: A Decade of Structural Rebalancing

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the EU's decisive shift toward net export status. The trade balance expanded from €903 million to €2.76 billion (+205.2%), while net import reliance moved from −2.9% to −11.0%, confirming that the EU became a progressively stronger net exporter. This was not primarily a volume story on the export side — export quantities grew only 8.9% — but rather reflected a collapse in import volumes combined with surging prices.

Import volumes contracted while export volumes held steady

Import volumes fell from 4.35 million tonnes to 3.00 million tonnes, a loss of 1.35 million tonnes. The decline was concentrated in raw and refined sugar (CN 1701), where import volumes dropped from 2.89 million tonnes to 1.62 million tonnes (−44.1%). By contrast, imports of sugar confectionery (1704) grew from 122,000 tonnes to 188,000 tonnes (+53.7%), and imports of other sugars (1702) rose from 190,000 to 244,000 tonnes (+28.7%). In essence, the EU reduced its dependence on imported bulk sugar while increasing its intake of higher-value processed sugars and confectionery.

On the export side, volumes of raw sugar (1701) were essentially flat (1.87 million tonnes in both 2015 and 2025), but volumes of other sugars (1702) rose from 567,000 to 821,000 tonnes (+44.7%), and molasses exports (1703) nearly doubled from 199,000 to 391,000 tonnes (+96.6%).

The EU became more trade-intensive and export-oriented

The trade intensity of the EU's sugar sector — trade as a share of production — rose from 12.3% to 25.3% (+105.8%), while export propensity — exports as a share of production — nearly tripled from 7.9% to 18.7% (+138.0%). This increasing outward orientation occurred even as EU sugar production volumes declined by 15.8%. The implication is clear: the EU produced less sugar in physical terms but channelled a growing share of its output — and its value-added — onto global markets.

Germany, Belgium, Poland, and Spain emerged as the bloc's export engines

Among EU Member States, Germany was the largest exporter by value, growing from €584 million to €1.12 billion (+91.6%). Belgium (+111.2%), Poland (+152.3%), and Spain (+123.3%) all saw their export values more than double over the period. The Netherlands remained a significant player, growing from €414 million to €590 million (+42.5%). On the import side, Spain and Germany were the top importers, but Italy saw its imports decline by 20.0%, consistent with the broader trend of reduced inbound sugar volumes.

2. Price Escalation and the Global Sugar Price Cycle

If structural rebalancing provided the direction of change, prices provided the magnitude. Both import and export unit values rose sharply over the period, but the timing and intensity of price movements varied significantly by product segment and year.

Average unit values rose roughly 55–59% across the decade

The overall price trajectory was not linear. Prices for raw sugar (1701) hit their trough around 2018–2019, when import prices stood at €433/t and €400/t respectively, and export prices bottomed at €348/t in 2018. The subsequent rally was dramatic: by 2023, export prices for 1701 reached €795/t — more than double the 2018 trough — while import prices climbed to €701/t. By 2025, prices had begun to correct, settling at €549/t (exports) and €556/t (imports).

The 2022–2023 sugar price spike was a defining event

Global sugar markets experienced a severe price spike in 2022–2023, driven by adverse weather in key producing regions, export restrictions, and rising energy costs. This is visible in the EU data across multiple indicators:

• Total import value surged from €1.88 billion in 2021 to €3.48 billion in 2023 — an 84% increase in just two years — even as import volumes rose only modestly.
• The shock detection analysis identified a major price shock in EU sugar exports to India in 2022, with an abnormality score of 567.9 and a 38.3% shift in unit price, reflecting the extreme tightness of global supply.
• Import volumes of 1701 (raw sugar) spiked to 2.95 million tonnes in 2023, up from 2.22 million tonnes in 2022, as EU buyers scrambled to secure supply at elevated prices.

The spike temporarily compressed the EU's trade balance to approximately €1.05 billion in 2023 (down from €1.44 billion in 2022), as import bills ballooned. However, the effect was short-lived: by 2024, import values had receded to €2.47 billion and the trade balance surged to a record €2.80 billion.

Confectionery prices showed a persistent upward trend, distinct from the raw sugar cycle

While raw sugar prices followed a boom-and-bust pattern, export prices for sugar confectionery (1704) displayed a remarkably steady climb, rising from €3,310/t in 2015 to €5,005/t in 2025 (+51.2%). Import prices for the same segment rose more moderately, from €3,673/t to €4,344/t (+18.3%). This divergence suggests that EU confectionery producers successfully repositioned their exports toward higher-value, premium segments of the global market. By 2025, confectionery accounted for 56.3% of total sugar-sector export value (up from 51.2% in 2015), confirming the EU's increasing specialisation in processed, high-margin products.

3. Post-Quota Reorientation: Shifting Partnerships and Diversifying Flows

The abolition of EU sugar production quotas on 30 September 2017 was a watershed moment for the bloc's sugar trade. Combined with geopolitical disruptions, it triggered a fundamental reordering of the EU's trade partnerships.

Traditional preferential suppliers lost ground — or disappeared entirely

Several long-standing sugar suppliers to the EU saw their trade collapse over the decade:

Cuba, historically one of the EU's most important cane sugar suppliers under preferential access arrangements, effectively vanished from EU import statistics, falling from €105 million to just €75,000. Mauritius and India, also beneficiaries of preferential regimes, saw their exports to the EU halve or worse. The collapse of imports from the Russian Federation (−75.8%) reflects the impact of sanctions and trade restrictions following 2022. The volatility analysis confirms the instability of these flows: Cuba had a coefficient of variation of 0.86 and Ukraine 0.91, indicating highly erratic trade patterns.

New suppliers filled the gap: Brazil and Ukraine surged

The void left by declining traditional suppliers was filled by a new set of origins:

Ukraine's ascent is particularly remarkable: from a modest €28 million in 2015 to €191 million in 2025, with a peak of €490 million in 2023. This trajectory reflects both the EU–Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) and, paradoxically, the disruptions caused by the Russia–Ukraine war, which redirected Ukrainian sugar exports westward. Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, also expanded its EU market presence substantially, growing from €80 million to €336 million. The import concentration index (HHI) for imports remained relatively stable at around 741, indicating that while the identity of suppliers changed, the degree of concentration remained broadly similar.

Export destinations diversified, reducing reliance on the United Kingdom

The United Kingdom has consistently been the EU's single largest export market for sugar products, growing from €882 million to €1.12 billion (+26.8%). However, the UK's share of total sugar-sector exports declined as other markets grew much faster:

The United States emerged as a major growth market, with EU sugar exports more than doubling to €643 million. Israel also saw its imports from the EU more than double. This diversification is reflected in the export concentration index (HHI), which fell from 1,182 to 840 (−28.9%), indicating a meaningful reduction in dependence on any single partner. Export volatility to the core European partners (UK, US, Switzerland, Norway) remained relatively low, with coefficients of variation between 0.11 and 0.15, suggesting these are now stable, established trade relationships. By contrast, exports to markets such as Egypt (CV 0.98) and Lebanon (CV 0.74) proved highly volatile.

EU Member State specialisation reveals a two-speed sugar sector

The revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) analysis for 2025 shows a pronounced internal divide. Lithuania (RSCA 0.37), France (0.34), and Bulgaria (0.29) are the most specialised sugar exporters within the EU, while Malta (−1.00), Cyprus (−0.97), and Luxembourg (−0.91) show no meaningful specialisation. France alone accounts for 15.9% of the EU's sugar-sector production and is both a major exporter and a significant producer of confectionery. This internal heterogeneity means that EU-level trade figures mask a wide range of national experiences, with a handful of Member States driving the bulk of the bloc's export performance.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's sugar and confectionery trade was reshaped by three reinforcing forces: a structural decline in import volumes (particularly of bulk cane sugar), a dramatic global price cycle that amplified trade values, and a fundamental realignment of supplier and customer relationships in the wake of quota abolition and geopolitical disruption. The result is an EU sugar sector that is more export-oriented, more price-competitive, and more diversified in its partnerships than at the start of the period. The trade balance more than tripled to €2.76 billion, and the EU's export propensity nearly tripled to 18.7%.

Several risks remain visible in the data. The sugar price cycle has proven highly volatile — the 2022–2023 spike temporarily erased years of trade balance gains within a single year. Dependence on a small number of large import suppliers (notably Brazil and Ukraine) introduces supply-side concentration risks, even as export markets have diversified. Furthermore, the EU's increasing reliance on high-value confectionery exports (56% of sectoral export value) ties its competitive advantage to consumer demand in mature markets that may be sensitive to health-related regulatory shifts. Nonetheless, the overall trajectory of the decade has been one of strengthening market position and rising value capture, positioning the EU as a globally competitive exporter of processed sugar products.