Market evolution: Beverages and spirits (CN 22) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's trade performance in Chapter 22 — BEVERAGES, SPIRITS AND VINEGAR — over the period 2015–2025. The chapter spans a wide product range, from mineral waters and soft drinks (CN 2201–2202) to wine (2204), beer (2203), spirits (2208), high-proof ethyl alcohol (2207), and vinegar (2209). As shown in the overview dashboard, the EU maintains a large and expanding trade surplus in this sector. Total exports rose from €27.7 billion in 2015 to €35.7 billion in 2025 (+28.8%), while imports grew from €7.1 billion to €9.6 billion (+34.5%). Over the same period, the trade surplus widened from €20.6 billion to €26.1 billion (+26.8%).

Three main dynamics emerge from the data: (1) the EU's export competitiveness is sustained by rising unit values — a hallmark of premiumisation — more than by volume growth; (2) the EU's trading partner landscape has shifted, with the United States gaining weight on the import side, China fading as an export destination, and emerging markets introducing new volatility; and (3) the internal product composition of EU trade has undergone structural change, with ethyl alcohol imports surging, wine imports declining, and beer exports losing momentum.

1. A Resilient Net Export Position Anchored by Premiumisation

The EU is a structural net exporter of beverages and spirits

Throughout the entire period, EU exports exceeded imports by a wide margin. In 2025, exports were worth €35.7 billion against imports of €9.6 billion, yielding a trade surplus of €26.1 billion. The net import reliance remained consistently negative (ranging from −11.3% to −21.5%), confirming that the EU does not depend on external suppliers for beverages. Rather, the EU is a major net supplier to the rest of the world, and its export orientation has deepened: the export propensity rose from 14.3% in 2015 to 19.0% in 2025 (+32.5%), and trade intensity climbed from 17.5% to 23.8% (+36.1%).

Value growth far outpaced volume growth, pointing to premiumisation

Export value grew by 28.8% over the decade, but export quantity grew only 8.2%. The gap is explained by a 19.2% rise in average export unit values, from €1,889/tonne to €2,253/tonne. This pattern — prices rising much faster than volumes — is a strong indicator of premiumisation: EU exporters are selling higher-value-added products (aged spirits, appellation wines, specialty beverages) rather than simply shipping more bulk. The same dynamic is visible on the production side: EU production volumes grew by 41.0% between 2015 and 2025, but production value surged by 79.7%.

France, Italy, and Spain are the EU's export powerhouses

Among EU Member States, France dominates exports at €11.9 billion in 2025 (up 17.8% from 2015), followed by Italy at €7.0 billion (+54.1%) and the Netherlands at €3.4 billion (+24.5%). Spain also showed strong momentum (+41.6%, reaching €2.9 billion). Specialisation analysis confirms France (RSCA 0.36), Austria (0.27), and Italy (0.27) as the most specialised EU exporters in beverages, while Central and Eastern European economies such as Slovenia, Romania, and Slovakia show the weakest specialisation.

2. Shifting Partners: Diversification Amid Rising Geopolitical Complexity

The import-side landscape has diversified, but the United States has surged

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell sharply from 2,322 to 1,734 (−25.3%), indicating meaningful diversification of the EU's supplier base. The United Kingdom remains the single largest import source at €3.3 billion (+5.8%), but the most striking change is the near-doubling of imports from the United States, rising from €1.0 billion to €2.0 billion (+98.1%). Several smaller partners also grew at extraordinary rates:

The dramatic growth of imports from Pakistan (+621.7%) and Serbia (+265.5%) likely reflects trade agreement developments and supply chain reorientation in the ethyl alcohol and soft drinks segments. However, both remain small in absolute terms.

The EU's export markets have partly rebalanced

The export HHI also declined, from 1,361 to 1,094 (−19.6%). The United States is the EU's top export destination at €8.7 billion, followed by the United Kingdom at €6.6 billion and Switzerland at €2.1 billion. Notably, exports to China fell by 10.1% (from €1.64 billion to €1.48 billion), making China the only top-7 partner to register a decline. Exports to Switzerland (+44.2%) and Canada (+37.6%) grew much faster than the average.

Export volatility varies widely across partners

Volatility analysis reveals that the EU's core export relationships are relatively stable — the UK has a coefficient of variation (CV) of just 0.04, and Switzerland 0.08 — but several markets are considerably more volatile. Exports to China (CV 0.23), Russia (0.25), and Korea (0.24) fluctuate much more, reflecting exposure to trade policy shifts, sanctions, and macroeconomic cycles. On the import side, Pakistan (CV 0.66), Brazil (0.89), and Ukraine (0.68) are the most erratic suppliers, introducing supply-side risk for the EU. Three major price shocks were detected: a 60.2% import price spike from Brazil in 2022, a 19.9% import price shock from South Africa in 2019, and a 19.9% export price shock to Brazil in 2023.

3. Structural Rebalancing Across Product Segments

Wine remains the EU's flagship export, but import volumes are falling

Wine (CN 2204) is by far the EU's largest export category, worth €15.9 billion in 2025 — representing nearly 45% of all CN 22 exports. However, EU wine imports have contracted markedly: quantity fell from 861,000 tonnes in 2015 to 540,000 tonnes in 2025 (−37.3%), and value declined from €1.69 billion to €1.39 billion (−17.9%). This suggests that the EU's own wine production is increasingly self-sufficient and that the competitive landscape may be shifting against non-EU wine suppliers. Meanwhile, the average import price of wine rose from €1,967/t to €2,580/t (+31.2%), indicating that whatever wine the EU does import is increasingly premium.

Spirits (CN 2208) have become the EU's largest import category

Spirits and liqueurs (CN 2208) overtook wine as the biggest import item by value. Import value grew from €3.17 billion in 2015 to €4.32 billion in 2025 (+36.1%), while quantity increased from 625,000 to 784,000 tonnes (+25.5%). Export spirits also grew strongly in value (+30.6%, to €8.31 billion), though volume gains were modest. The premiumisation dynamic is especially visible here: the average import price of spirits rose from €5,073/t to €5,503/t, while the export price reached €6,077/t — a significant premium that reflects the global appetite for EU-origin spirits such as Scotch whisky, Cognac, and Irish whiskey.

Ethyl alcohol imports have surged dramatically

The most striking structural shift is in CN 2207 (undenatured ethyl alcohol ≥80% and denatured spirits). EU imports of this category more than doubled in volume, from 704,000 tonnes in 2015 to 1.64 million tonnes in 2025 (+133.1%), and value nearly tripled, from €460 million to €1.28 billion. This likely reflects growing demand for industrial and fuel-grade ethanol, and the EU's reliance on external suppliers (notably from Brazil and Pakistan) to meet this demand. By contrast, EU exports of CN 2207 have collapsed: volume fell from 662,000 to 300,000 tonnes (−54.6%), and value dropped from €557 million to €355 million (−36.3%). The EU has shifted from being a balanced trader in this segment to a net importer.

Beer and soft drinks show divergent trajectories

Beer exports (CN 2203) peaked around 2019 at 4.24 million tonnes but have since declined to 3.17 million tonnes in 2025 (−25.3% from peak), while export value fell from €3.58 billion to €3.00 billion. This may reflect changing consumer preferences, the growth of local craft brewing in export markets, or post-pandemic channel shifts. Conversely, soft drinks and flavoured waters (CN 2202) have been a consistent growth story on both sides: exports grew from €3.47 billion to €5.57 billion (+60.5%), and imports from €1.13 billion to €1.85 billion (+64.0%). This reflects the global expansion of EU-based beverage multinationals and the broad trend toward non-alcoholic alternatives.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in beverages and spirits (CN 22) over 2015–2025 tells a story of resilience, premiumisation, and structural adaptation. The EU remains a formidable net exporter, with a surplus that grew to over €26 billion by 2025. However, this strength is increasingly driven by value rather than volume: unit prices for both exports and production have risen sharply, reflecting the premium character of EU beverages — particularly wine and spirits.

At the partner level, the EU has meaningfully diversified its trade relationships, as evidenced by the 25% decline in import concentration. The United States has emerged as a crucial and growing partner on both sides of the ledger, while China's role as an export destination has waned. Several smaller, more volatile partners (Pakistan, Serbia, Brazil) have gained importance, introducing new supply-side risks that merit monitoring.

Finally, the product composition of EU trade is shifting. Ethyl alcohol imports have surged, converting the EU from a balanced trader to a net importer in this segment. Beer exports are declining from their 2019 peak, while soft drinks have become a breakout category. Wine exports remain the bedrock of the sector but face a paradox: while export revenues continue to grow, import volumes are contracting — a sign that the EU's competitive position in wine remains strong, but also that global competitive pressures may be reshaping the trade map. Looking ahead, the EU's ability to sustain its premium positioning, manage supply-chain volatility, and adapt to evolving consumer tastes (including the rise of non-alcoholic and low-alcohol beverages) will be the key determinants of its future trade performance in this sector.