Market evolution: Mineral waters and ice (CN 2201) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the EU's external trade in CN 2201 — covering natural and artificial mineral waters, aerated waters (without added sugar or flavouring), as well as ice and snow — over the period 2015–2025. The general overview reveals a market in which the EU is a strong and growing net exporter: over the decade, export value rose by 59.0% (from €930.9 million to €1,479.7 million), while import value grew by a more modest 28.1% (from €86.6 million to €111.0 million). The resulting trade surplus expanded from €844.3 million to €1,368.8 million (+62.1%). Behind these headline figures, however, lie important structural shifts — in pricing dynamics, partner geography, and product composition — that this report examines in detail.

Price-driven expansion: export values surge far ahead of volumes

Export volumes grew modestly while unit values climbed steeply

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the divergence between export volume and export value. Total extra-EU export quantities in CN 2201 rose only 9.9%, from 2,555,915 tonnes to 2,808,300 tonnes. Over the same period, export values surged 59.0% and export unit values increased 44.7%, from €364 per tonne to €527 per tonne. In other words, the vast majority of the EU's export revenue growth was driven by rising prices rather than expanding physical shipments.

Source: General overview

This pattern likely reflects a combination of general inflationary pressures (especially from 2021 onwards), the premiumisation trend in bottled water (with branded mineral waters commanding higher prices), and rising production and logistics costs across the EU beverages sector.

Mineral and aerated waters (220110) account for nearly all export growth

The product segment breakdown reveals that subheading 220110 (mineral and aerated waters) dominates EU exports, and that its share has grown further over the period.

Mineral and aerated water export volumes grew 16.4% (from 2,291,495 t to 2,667,674 t), while unit values rose 40.9% (from €386/t to €544/t). By contrast, exports of ordinary water and ice (220190) declined sharply in both volume (−46.8%, from 264,420 t to 140,626 t) and value (−36.8%). This segment contraction for 220190 partly reflects the reclassification of certain flows and the structural dominance of branded mineral water in EU external trade.

Import prices rose more gently, driven by mineral water purchases

On the import side, the picture is different. Total import quantities grew 13.4% (from 1,769,562 t to 2,006,301 t) while values rose 28.1%, implying a more moderate unit-value increase of 13.0% (from €49/t to €55/t). The vast majority of import volume is accounted for by subheading 220190 (ordinary water, ice and snow), which represented 1,791,524 tonnes in 2025, but only €34.1 million in value — reflecting the very low unit value (€19/t) of bulk ordinary water and ice. Mineral water imports (220110), while smaller in volume (214,777 t), accounted for €76.8 million in value, with a unit value of €358/t — roughly 19 times higher per tonne than ordinary water.

Shifting partnerships and rising US dependence in exports

The United States has become the EU's dominant export market

Looking at the top export partners by value, the most dramatic shift over the decade has been the rise of the United States. US-bound exports surged from €253.9 million in 2015 to €572.4 million in 2025 (+125.4%), accounting for 38.7% of total EU extra-EU exports by the end of the period, up from 27.3% at the start. This single market absorbed more than the entire net increase in export value over the decade.

Source: Top partners by value

Japan, once the third-largest market, saw a steep decline of 62.9% (from €96.0 million to €35.7 million), likely reflecting changing consumer preferences and increased competition from domestic and Asian suppliers. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom — the second-largest destination — grew more slowly (+33.0%), and its share in total exports fell from 16.3% to 13.6%.

Export concentration has increased, driven by US dominance

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export concentration by value rose from 1,302 to 1,892 (+45.3%) over the period. While the HHI remains below the 2,500 threshold typically considered "highly concentrated," this significant increase indicates growing reliance on a smaller number of markets — principally the United States. A slowdown or tariff action in the US market would therefore have an outsized impact on EU mineral water exporters.

Import sources diversified, with Türkiye and Western Balkans gaining share

On the import side, the HHI fell from 2,522 to 1,533 (−39.2%), reflecting a marked diversification of supply sources. The United Kingdom, historically the largest extra-EU supplier (€37.6 million in 2015), saw its share decline to €25.1 million (−33.3%), partly as a consequence of Brexit-related trade friction. Meanwhile, Türkiye grew from €16.4 million to €27.1 million (+65.4%), and several Western Balkan countries emerged as notable suppliers:

Source: Top partners by value

The rapid growth of Serbia (+271.1%) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (+279.7%) reflects both the integration of Western Balkan economies into EU supply chains and the competitive pricing of their mineral water resources.

Volatility varies strongly by partner

The volatility analysis shows that trade stability differs sharply across partners. On the export side, Switzerland (CV = 0.07) and the United Kingdom (CV = 0.13) are the most stable markets, while Norway (CV = 0.76) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (CV = 0.62) show much higher year-to-year variability. On the import side, Albania (CV = 0.95) and the United States (CV = 0.86) are the most volatile sources, while Türkiye (CV = 0.10) and Switzerland (CV = 0.15) are more predictable. A single price shock event was detected in 2022 for exports to Israel, where unit values spiked by 50.3% (abnormality score: 3.7), possibly linked to supply disruptions or changing product mix.

Italy's export surge and the EU's deepening competitive advantage

Italy overtook France as the EU's leading exporter

Among EU Member States, Italy experienced the most striking export growth. Italian extra-EU exports of CN 2201 rose from €313.2 million in 2015 to €668.2 million in 2025 (+113.4%), more than doubling and making Italy the EU's largest exporter in this product — a position previously held by France. France itself grew more moderately, from €384.4 million to €481.0 million (+25.1%).

Source: Top reporters by value

Italy's exceptional growth likely reflects the strong international demand for its well-known mineral water brands (such as San Pellegrino and Ferrarelle) and the particular strength of Italian exports to the US market, which grew by 125.4% over the period. Spain (+92.4%) and Poland (+123.1%) also emerged as fast-growing exporters, albeit from smaller bases.

Production volumes and values rose substantially across the EU

EU domestic production data show significant growth: production quantity rose 52.7% (from 52.1 billion m³ to 79.6 billion m³), and production value rose 64.2% (from €9.6 billion to €15.7 billion). This expansion in domestic capacity underpins the growth in exports and confirms that the EU water industry has been investing in capacity over the decade.

Specialisation data confirm France and Italy as the EU's export champions

The specialisation analysis for 2025 shows that France (RSCA = 0.63, RCA = 4.41) and Italy (RSCA = 0.49, RCA = 2.91) have the strongest revealed comparative advantages in CN 2201 among EU Member States. Luxembourg (RSCA = 0.66) also shows high specialisation, though its absolute trade volumes are small. At the other end of the spectrum, Ireland (RSCA = −1.00), Finland (RSCA = −0.99), and Sweden (RSCA = −0.80) are strongly specialised as importers rather than exporters in this product, consistent with the limited natural mineral water resources in northern Europe.

The EU's net exporter position strengthened and trade intensity increased

The EU's net import reliance — which is negative because the EU is a net exporter — deepened from −6.1% to −9.3% over the period, indicating a growing competitive advantage. Trade intensity also increased from 6.3% to 9.8%, and export propensity rose from 6.1% to 9.2%. Together, these indicators point to a sector that has become progressively more export-oriented over the decade, with a rising share of domestic production channelled to international markets.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in CN 2201 over the 2015–2025 period is characterised by three overarching dynamics. First, export revenue growth (+59%) has been overwhelmingly driven by rising unit values rather than expanding volumes, reflecting premiumisation and cost pressures. Second, the geography of trade has shifted significantly: the United States has consolidated its position as the dominant export market (now 38.7% of export value), while import sources have diversified away from the United Kingdom towards Türkiye and the Western Balkans. Third, the EU's competitive position has strengthened, with deeper net export reliance, higher trade intensity, and strong production growth — led by Italy, which has overtaken France as the bloc's leading exporter. The principal risk in this otherwise positive picture is the growing concentration of EU exports on the US market, which leaves the sector exposed to demand fluctuations or policy changes in a single partner.