Market evolution: Mineral water (CN 220110) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in mineral waters and aerated waters (CN 220110) with non-EU countries over the period 2015 to 2025. The EU operates as a major net exporter in this market, a position that has strengthened considerably over the decade. The analysis focuses on identifying key trends in trade value and volume, shifts in market structure, and underlying market dynamics based on the provided data.
1. The EU's Dominant and Growing Export Position
The EU's trade balance in mineral water is overwhelmingly positive, and this surplus has expanded significantly. This is driven by robust export growth, where both volume and, more importantly, unit value increases have boosted total revenue. The market remains concentrated among a few traditional European producers.
1.1. Export Growth Outpaces Imports Substantially
Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of mineral water grew by 64.0% in value, reaching €1.45 billion, while export quantity rose by 16.4%. In contrast, imports grew by 38.6% in value to €76.8 million. The resulting trade surplus increased by 65.7% over the period, reaching €1.37 billion. This highlights the EU's dominant and expanding role as a supplier to the global market.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports Value (€) | 884.4 million | 1.450 billion | +64.0% |
| Exports Quantity (t) | 2.291 million | 2.668 million | +16.4% |
| Exports Price (€/t) | 386 | 544 | +40.9% |
| Imports Value (€) | 55.4 million | 76.8 million | +38.6% |
| Imports Quantity (t) | 188.9 thousand | 214.8 thousand | +13.7% |
| Trade Balance (€) | 829.0 million | 1.374 billion | +65.7% |
View General Overview of Trade
1.2. The US and UK Drive Export Demand
The growth in export value was led by surging sales to a few key partners. The United States became the single largest destination, with exports more than doubling in value (+127.2%). The United Kingdom, Switzerland, and the United Arab Emirates also showed strong growth. Notably, the value exported to Japan declined sharply (-62.0%). These trends suggest a shift in destination focus and significant pricing power in high-income markets.
| Top Export Partners | Value 2015 (€) | Value 2025 (€) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 251.1 million | 570.5 million | +127.2% |
| United Kingdom | 140.1 million | 194.2 million | +38.6% |
| Switzerland | 82.9 million | 124.8 million | +50.5% |
| United Arab Emirates | 21.8 million | 74.4 million | +241.6% |
| Japan | 93.6 million | 35.6 million | -62.0% |
1.3. Italy and France Anchor EU Production and Exports
At the EU member state level, Italy and France are the undisputed leaders in exports, together accounting for over 75% of the total export value in 2025. Italy experienced particularly strong growth (+119.9%), while France grew more steadily (+32.0%). Their dominance underscores the sector's geographic concentration around major historical mineral water sources.
| Top EU Exporting Members | Value 2015 (€) | Value 2025 (€) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 301.7 million | 663.4 million | +119.9% |
| France | 361.4 million | 477.1 million | +32.0% |
| Belgium | 123.0 million | 128.6 million | +4.5% |
| Germany | 24.5 million | 30.7 million | +25.1% |
2. Market Consolidation and Specialization
The EU mineral water sector is characterized by a high degree of specialization in a few member states and an increasing concentration of its export market.
2.1. Specialization is Strongest in Traditional Producers
The Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index confirms that France and Italy are highly specialized and competitive exporters of mineral water. Luxembourg shows a high RCA due to its small overall trade base. Conversely, large economies like the Netherlands and Poland have a comparative disadvantage in this product, reflecting their broader trade portfolios. This specialization is underpinned by significant EU production growth (+50.8% in volume and +64.0% in value from 2015 to 2025).
2.2. The Export Market is Becoming More Concentrated
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export value increased from 1,361 to 1,943 between 2015 and 2025. While this remains below thresholds for high concentration, the 42.8% rise indicates that a larger share of export value is flowing to a smaller set of destination countries, likely led by the dominant US market. Conversely, the import market became slightly less concentrated.
| HHI (Value) | 2015 | 2025 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports | 1,361 | 1,943 | +42.8% |
| Imports | 2,266 | 1,650 | -27.2% |
3. Price Dynamics and Product Mix Evolution
The overall increase in export value is largely a story of rising prices, particularly for carbonated and artificial waters. A notable price shock linked to Brexit stands out in the data.
3.1. Significant Price Increases Drive Export Value Growth
The average export price (€ per tonne) increased by 40.9% from 2015 to 2025. This price growth was not uniform across product sub-segments. The price for natural carbonated water (22011019) saw a dramatic rise, increasing by over 70% from 2015 to its peak. Artificial mineral waters (22011090) also exhibited high and volatile pricing. This suggests a trend towards premiumization or shifts in the product mix towards higher-value segments.
3.2. A Notable Price Shock is Linked to the UK Market
Volatility analysis detected a significant price shock in EU imports from the United Kingdom in 2020, corresponding to Brexit-related trade disruptions. While the volume impact was minor, the price abnormality was severe. This event underscores how geopolitical changes can create acute, though potentially transient, distortions in the market.
3.3. Export Composition Shows a Shift Towards Higher-Value Segments
Examining the product breakdown reveals a shift in the export portfolio. While natural non-carbonated water (22011011) remains the largest segment by volume, the volume of exported artificial mineral waters (22011090) quadrupled from 2015 to 2025, albeit from a low base. More strikingly, the value of this segment grew by nearly 500%, indicating a strong shift towards exporting higher-priced artificial and aerated waters. In contrast, the composition of imports remained more stable.
View Product Segment Breakdown
Conclusion
Between 2015 and 2025, the EU solidified its position as the preeminent global exporter of mineral water. Growth was powered by a combination of increased sales volumes and, crucially, significant price appreciation, leading to a 65.7% expansion of the trade surplus. This success is geographically concentrated in Italy and France, and directed towards key partners like the United States. The market exhibits signs of increased export concentration and a strategic shift towards higher-value carbonated and artificial water segments. While the sector faced specific volatility, notably from Brexit, the overarching trend is one of strengthening competitive advantage and value capture in global markets. The EU remains highly autonomous, with import reliance being minimal and stable.