Market evolution: Natural mineral water (CN 22011011) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the EU's external trade in natural, non-carbonated mineral water (customs code 22011011) over the period 2015–2025. The EU is overwhelmingly a net exporter of this product, with exports in 2025 valued at €698 million — nearly twenty times the value of imports (€38 million). Over the period, the trade balance widened by 57.8%, from €419 million to €661 million, confirming the EU's dominant and growing role as a global supplier of premium mineral water. Three dynamics stand out in the data: a strong value-driven expansion of exports, a significant reorientation of both export and import geography, and a deepening of the EU's self-sufficiency in a sector where France and Italy increasingly set the pace.

1. Export value outpaced volume as the EU climbed the premium ladder

The EU's mineral water exports grew substantially over the period, but the most striking feature is that value growth (55.5%) far exceeded volume growth (12.3%). This divergence is explained by a 38.5% increase in unit export prices, suggesting a shift toward higher-value or more branded products in external markets.

1.1 Export values reached nearly €700 million by 2025

Total export value rose from €449 million in 2015 to €698 million in 2025, an increase of 55.5%. The minimum over the period was €409 million (in 2016), and the maximum was the final year, 2025, indicating that the upward trend held through the final observation. Export volumes, measured in tonnes, grew more modestly from 1.35 million to 1.51 million tonnes (+12.3%), while the supplementary unit (thousand cubic metres) rose by a comparable 12.7%.

Source: General Overview

1.2 Rising unit prices signal a move upmarket

The unit export price climbed from €333 per tonne in 2015 to €461 per tonne in 2025, with a peak of €467 per tonne. This 38.5% increase — well above general inflation over the same decade — indicates that EU exporters are extracting more value per unit, likely through a combination of brand positioning, geographic diversification toward higher-income markets, and possibly product mix changes (e.g., smaller, more premium packaging). The supplementary price (€/1,000 m³) followed the same trajectory, rising 38.0%, which confirms the trend is not an artefact of mass-to-volume conversion.

1.3 EU production expanded faster than exports

According to PRODCOM production data, domestic production in thousand cubic metres rose from 45.2 billion to 68.2 billion (+50.8%), while production value increased from €8.8 billion to €14.4 billion (+64.0%). Production growth thus outpaced export volume growth, meaning that while the EU is exporting more in absolute terms, a growing share of the expanded production is being absorbed by the internal market. The EU's export propensity (exports as a share of production) nevertheless rose from 6.2% to 9.8%, indicating that external markets are becoming a more important outlet for EU mineral water producers.

2. Trade geography shifted markedly, with booming demand from the US and Middle East

The most dramatic changes in the period occurred in the direction of trade flows. On the export side, the United States and the United Arab Emirates emerged as the fastest-growing destinations, while Japan — once the EU's third-largest non-EU market — saw a steep decline. On the import side, Western Balkan countries surged from negligible volumes to meaningful suppliers, while the United Kingdom's role diminished following Brexit.

2.1 The United States became the EU's top mineral water export market by value

US-bound exports skyrocketed from €42 million in 2015 to €155 million in 2025 — a 268.3% increase, the largest absolute and relative gain among all non-EU partners. This made the US the single largest destination by value in 2025, overtaking the United Kingdom (€148 million). The United Arab Emirates also grew rapidly (+253.3%, from €13 million to €47 million), and Israel (+347.0%) and China (+89.0%) posted strong gains as well. These shifts point to a reorientation of EU mineral water exports toward non-European markets with growing demand for premium imported beverages.

Source: Top partners

2.2 Japan's sharp decline contrasted with broader export growth

Japan was the EU's largest single non-European export market in 2015 at €75 million, but by 2025 it had fallen to just €26 million — a drop of 65.8%. This stands in stark contrast to the generally upward trend elsewhere. The volatility data confirms an abnormal price shock in 2023, with an 18.5% price shift and an abnormality score of 18.2, suggesting a significant disruption in the Japan trade relationship — potentially linked to currency depreciation (the yen weakened markedly against the euro from 2022 onwards) or changing consumer preferences.

2.3 Western Balkan suppliers surged on the import side

EU imports of natural mineral water remained modest in absolute terms (rising from €30 million to €38 million, +24.6%), but the composition of suppliers changed dramatically. Imports from Bosnia and Herzegovina jumped from just €4,000 in 2015 to €3.5 million in 2025 (+90,406%), while imports from Serbia rose from €34,000 to €2.2 million (+6,349%). Albania also grew from €145,000 to €1.5 million (+920%). These three Western Balkan countries — all candidates or potential candidates for EU membership — appear to be rapidly integrating into the EU's mineral water supply chain. Import unit prices from these suppliers tend to be lower than the EU average, consistent with cost-competitive sourcing from the region.

Source: Top partners

2.4 The United Kingdom's post-Brexit role receded on both sides

The United Kingdom was by far the EU's largest export destination in 2015 (€109 million) and remained important in 2025 (€148 million, +36.0%), but was overtaken by the US. On the import side, the UK was the largest non-EU supplier in 2015 (€17 million) but fell to €13 million (−23.1%) by 2025. The UK's import concentration HHI fell sharply, from 3,966 to 2,052 (−48.2%), partly reflecting the UK's shift from an intra-EU trade flow to a non-EU one after January 2020, and partly the rise of alternative suppliers.

3. France and Italy drove export growth while the EU deepened its net-exporter position

The EU's mineral water export sector is heavily concentrated in two member states — France and Italy — which together accounted for the vast majority of export value growth over the period. Meanwhile, the EU's structural position as a net exporter strengthened significantly, and the import market became more diversified.

3.1 France remained the dominant exporter; Italy surged into second place

France, home to globally recognised mineral water brands, was the largest EU exporter throughout the period, with exports rising from €236 million to €323 million (+37.1%). Italy, however, experienced the most dramatic growth: exports surged from €55 million to €169 million (+208.0%), more than tripling and making Italy the EU's second-largest exporter by 2025, surpassing Belgium. France holds a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.71 and Italy of 0.36, confirming strong specialisation in both countries.

Source: Top reporters

3.2 Export concentration edged up, but import sources diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports by partner rose slightly from 1,187 to 1,234 (+4.0%), indicating a mild increase in concentration among destination markets — consistent with the outsized growth of the US market. By contrast, import HHI fell sharply from 3,966 to 2,052 (−48.2%), reflecting the entry of new suppliers from the Western Balkans and Norway, which reduced the dominance of the UK and Türkiye. The import market moved from a moderately concentrated structure to a more competitive one.

3.3 The EU's net-exporter status strengthened considerably

The EU's net import reliance — measured as (imports − exports) / production — deepened from −6.4% to −10.3% over the period. A negative value indicates the EU is a net exporter; the increasingly negative figure means that exports are growing as a share of domestic production. This is consistent with the parallel rise in trade intensity (from 6.4% to 10.2%) and export propensity (from 6.2% to 9.8%). The EU's mineral water sector is thus becoming more export-oriented, though it remains primarily oriented toward the internal market.

3.4 Price volatility was moderate for major partners, but Western Balkan supply was erratic

Coefficient of variation analysis reveals that import volatility was extremely high for the new Western Balkan suppliers: Bosnia and Herzegovina (CV = 1.46), Serbia (CV = 1.02), and Albania (CV = 0.93). These elevated coefficients reflect the rapid, step-like growth from near-zero baselines rather than cyclical instability. Among established import partners, Türkiye (CV = 0.22) and the UK (CV = 0.16) were relatively stable. On the export side, the most volatile destination was Russia (CV = 0.55), followed by Israel (CV = 0.50) and Japan (CV = 0.39). The detected price shocks — Japan in 2023 (abnormality 18.2), Israel in 2022 (abnormality 13.0), and Canada in 2023 (abnormality 6.2) — all manifested as price rather than volume disruptions, suggesting currency or margin pressures rather than supply-demand imbalances.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU consolidated its position as the world's leading exporter of natural mineral water. Export value grew by 55.5% to nearly €700 million, driven more by rising unit prices (+38.5%) than by volume expansion (+12.3%), pointing to a premiumisation of the sector. The geographic centre of gravity of EU exports shifted decisively: the United States overtook the United Kingdom as the top destination, the UAE and Israel emerged as fast-growing markets, and Japan — once the third-largest market — contracted sharply. On the import side, modest volumes were increasingly sourced from Western Balkan countries (Bosnia, Serbia, Albania), which entered the market almost from scratch. Within the EU, France and Italy dominated export growth, with Italy tripling its exports over the decade. The EU's structural net-exporter position deepened, with export propensity rising from 6.2% to 9.8% of production. The main risks in this otherwise favourable picture relate to currency-driven volatility in key Asian markets and the still-nascent, erratic nature of Western Balkan import supply. Overall, the data paints a picture of a mature European industry that is successfully internationalising and moving up the value chain.