Market evolution: Vinegar (CN 2209) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in vinegar and vinegar substitutes (customs code 2209) over the 2015–2025 period. The data reveals a period of significant expansion for the EU in this market, characterized by robust growth in both exports and imports, solidifying its position as a major global exporter. Key dynamics include a shifting geographic orientation of trade, increased production, and evolving competitive specializations among EU member states, alongside notable price and supply volatility from certain partners.

I. Robust Growth and a Strengthening Trade Surplus

The period from 2015 to 2025 was one of pronounced expansion for EU vinegar trade. The general overview shows that both exports and imports grew substantially, though exports consistently maintained a much larger scale.

Export expansion outpaced import growth in absolute terms

EU exports of vinegar products surged, with the value rising from €196.8 million in 2015 to €320.0 million in 2025, a 62.7% increase. Export volumes grew by 35.0% to reach nearly 179,000 tonnes. This growth was accompanied by rising prices, with the average export price increasing by 20.5% to €1,790 per tonne.

Imports grew rapidly from a much smaller base

While smaller in absolute value, EU imports showed even stronger relative growth. Import value skyrocketed by 153.4% to €48.9 million, and quantity nearly doubled (+93.9%) to almost 40,000 tonnes. Import prices also increased, rising by 30.7% to €1,225 per tonne by 2025.

The EU consolidated its role as a major net exporter

The consistent trade surplus expanded significantly. The trade balance grew by 52.8%, from €177.4 million to €271.1 million. This positive and growing net export reliance is further confirmed by the net import reliance metric, which remained deeply negative (from -23.6% to -39.6%), indicating that exports are a multiple of imports.

II. Geographic Diversification and Shifting Trade Flows

The growth in trade volumes was accompanied by a notable evolution in the EU's partner landscape. While core partnerships remained strong, the fastest growth often came from emerging partners, leading to a slight diversification in both export destinations and import sources.

The United States remained the paramount export market

The US is the EU's largest single export destination for vinegar by a wide margin. Its import value from the EU grew by 43.5% to €121.0 million. Other traditional partners like the United Kingdom (+56.9%), Switzerland (+28.5%), and Canada (+35.8%) also showed solid, steady growth, solidifying these as key, stable markets.

Import sources diversified with high-growth partners emerging

While the United Kingdom remained the top source of imports, the most dynamic growth came from other partners. Imports from China (+203.7%), Japan (+190.4%), and especially Türkiye (+336.1%) surged. The United States also became a much more significant supplier, with import value growing by 589.5%. This diversification is reflected in a decrease in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value from 3,126 to 2,786.

III. Production Growth, Specialization, and Market Volatility

The expansion in trade was underpinned by significant growth in EU production. The EU is not only a large trader but also a major producer, with a clear internal division of labor and exposure to supply-side volatility.

EU vinegar production expanded markedly

EU production, measured in volume, grew by 55.9% over the period, reaching 1.244 billion litres in 2025. The value of production more than doubled, increasing by 104.7% to €963.8 million, indicating rising unit values for EU-produced vinegar.

Southern European members lead in export specialization

The market exhibits strong specialization patterns within the EU. According to the 2025 specialisation data, Greece and Italy have the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores, indicating they are highly specialized producers and exporters. Italy, with an RSCA of 0.68, also accounts for the largest share (42.7%) of EU production in this product category.

Price and supply volatility are notable features from key partners

Trade is not without disruptions. Analysis of volatility shows that import flows from partners like China, Japan, and the United States display high year-to-year volatility. A specific supply shock was detected in 2021, when the average import price from China jumped abnormally, contributing to 18.3% of the total import value volatility that year.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU vinegar market demonstrated strong vitality and expansion. The EU solidified its position as a major global net exporter, with export growth outpacing import growth. This expansion was driven by rising production volumes and values, underpinned by highly specialized producer members like Italy and Greece. Geographically, while traditional transatlantic and intra-European trade remained the backbone, the period saw significant diversification, particularly in import sources, with high-growth partners emerging in Asia. Despite this growth, the market exhibits pockets of price and supply volatility from certain trading partners, posing occasional management challenges. Overall, the decade was characterized by positive growth trajectories, increasing integration into global markets, and a strengthening of the EU's competitive position.