Market evolution: Spirits and liqueurs (CN 2208) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in spirits and liqueurs, classified under Combined Nomenclature code 2208, over the period from 2015 to 2025. The analysis covers undenatured ethyl alcohol of an alcoholic strength below 80%, along with products such as whisky, rum, gin, vodka, and liqueurs. The EU has consistently maintained a substantial positive trade balance in this sector, acting as a major global exporter. Over the decade, both exports and imports grew significantly, but exports grew more in value, reinforcing the EU's net exporter position. Overview of trade in CN 2208

I. Resilient Growth and the Consolidation of the EU's Net Exporter Status

The EU's trade in spirits and liqueurs demonstrated robust growth over the review period, with the bloc strengthening its position as a net exporter. This section examines the key aggregate trends in exports, imports, and the resulting trade balance.

EU Exports Expanded in Both Volume and Value, Solidifying a Major Trade Surplus

EU exports of spirits and liqueurs to non-EU countries grew from €6.37 billion in 2015 to €8.31 billion in 2025, a 30.5% increase. This growth outpaced the rise in import value, allowing the EU's trade surplus to grow by 24.9% to nearly €4 billion by 2025. The growth in export quantity (in net mass) was even more pronounced at 47.5%, rising from 927,365 tonnes to 1,368,164 tonnes. This suggests that while the EU was exporting more volume, the average price per tonne of exports slightly decreased over the period.

EU Imports Also Rose, Driven by Persistent Demand for Key Categories

Imports into the EU grew by 36.2% in value, from €3.17 billion in 2015 to €4.32 billion in 2025. The quantity imported increased by 25.5%. Unlike exports, the average import price per tonne rose by 8.5%. This indicates a more price-inelastic demand for certain imported spirits within the EU market. The consistent growth in both export and import values points to a dynamic and expanding internal market for spirits, integrated into global supply chains.

Key Aggregate Trade Figures (2015 vs. 2025)

Source: EU Trade Overview

II. Shifting Geographies and Diversifying Product Portfolios

The period saw notable changes in the geographical direction of EU spirits trade and in the performance of different product segments within CN 2208. Trade became less concentrated, with growth in exports to new partners and volatility in traditional relationships.

Top Export Destinations Showed Divergent Paths, with Strong Growth in Asia and Eastern Europe

The United States remained the EU's single largest export market, with value growing 14.5% to €2.58 billion. However, the most dramatic growth occurred in other markets. Exports to the Philippines surged by 153.5% to €172.7 million, and exports to Ukraine grew by 221.6% to €175.3 million. In contrast, exports to Russia, once a major market, saw a marginal decline of 4.4%. The growth in Ukraine is particularly notable, rising from €54.5 million in 2015 to €175.3 million in 2025, reflecting deepening trade ties. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export concentration decreased by 18.3%, confirming a diversification of export markets. Partners in EU spirits trade

The Import Landscape Was Dominated by the UK, but the US and Mexico Gained Ground

The United Kingdom was the largest source of EU spirits imports, accounting for over half of the total value in 2025 (€2.24 billion). While imports from the UK grew by 14.4%, imports from the United States almost doubled, increasing by 95.8% to €1.21 billion. Imports from Mexico also surged by 154% to €233.4 million. A dramatic collapse occurred in imports from Russia, which fell by 99.6% from €49 million in 2015 to just €0.19 million in 2025, likely reflecting geopolitical sanctions. Import concentration (HHI) fell by 16.3%, indicating a broader sourcing base for the EU. Reporters in EU spirits trade

Product Segments Evolved Differently, with Whisky Dominating Imports and Ethyl Alcohol Driving Export Growth

The product breakdown reveals distinct trends. Whiskies (220830) remained the largest import category by value, though its share fluctuated. Vodka (220860) imports saw a remarkable volume increase, with quantity rising from 44,853 tonnes in 2015 to 101,758 tonnes in 2025. On the export side, the category "Other spirits and ethyl alcohol" (220890) showed the strongest growth, with export value tripling from €352.7 million to €1.11 billion. Liqueurs and cordials (220870) also performed well, with export value growing by 55%. Detailed product segment breakdown

III. Market Volatility, Price Shocks, and Geopolitical Influences

The spirits market experienced periods of significant volatility and was influenced by external shocks and geopolitical events. This section explores price fluctuations, detected supply shocks, and the resilience of EU production.

Price Volatility Varied by Partner and Product, with Notable Export Price Shocks

Trade volatility, measured by the coefficient of variation, differed greatly across partners. Imports from Eswatini (CV: 0.73) and Russia (CV: 0.71) were highly volatile. On the export side, shipments to the Philippines (CV: 0.40) and Ukraine (CV: 0.42) showed high variability. Several significant price shocks were detected. The most severe was a 62.9% abnormality in export prices to the United States in 2022, coinciding with a 26.1% price shift. This suggests a major disruption or pricing event in the crucial US market. Another price shock of 29.6% was detected in exports to Singapore in 2021. Volatility and supply shock analysis

EU Domestic Production Grew Substantially, Bolstering Export Capacity

EU production of spirits and liqueurs, measured in litres of pure alcohol, increased by 20.7% from 1.17 billion litres in 2015 to 1.41 billion litres in 2025. More strikingly, the value of production nearly doubled, rising by 93.0% from €8.22 billion to €15.86 billion. This indicates a shift towards higher-value production within the EU, supporting the observed growth in export values. The rise in production capacity explains the ability to sustain export growth even as imports also increased. EU production volumes

Specialisation Patterns Highlight the Strategic Importance of the Sector for Certain Member States

Analysis of Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) for 2025 shows that spirits production and trade are of high strategic importance for several EU members. Latvia (RSCA: 0.65), Luxembourg (0.50), and Ireland (0.44) are the most specialised in this sector. Conversely, countries like Hungary (-0.69) and Slovenia (-0.67) show a strong comparative disadvantage. This divergence underscores the uneven economic significance of the spirits industry across the EU. Specialisation by member state

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 period, the EU's spirits and liqueurs sector proved dynamic and resilient. The bloc consolidated its position as a major net exporter, with export growth outpacing import growth. The geographical and product landscape evolved: while traditional partners like the US and UK remained dominant, significant growth occurred in markets such as the Philippines, Ukraine, and Mexico. Product-wise, exports of "other spirits and ethyl alcohol" (220890) and liqueurs gained momentum. The market was not without disruptions, facing price shocks and the near-total collapse of trade with Russia. However, robust growth in domestic production value indicates a strategic strengthening of the EU's high-value spirits industry. The data paints a picture of a sector adapting to diversification and external pressures while continuing to expand its global footprint.