Market evolution: Wine (CN 2204) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The European Union is the world's largest wine producer and exporter. Customs code 2204 covers all wine of fresh grapes — still and sparkling, in any container size — as well as grape must of alcoholic strength above 0.5% vol. Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU wine trade has been shaped by several major structural forces: a persistent premiumisation of the product mix, dramatic shifts in key trading partners driven by geopolitical events such as Brexit and tariff disputes, and the growing dominance of sparkling wine in the export portfolio. This report examines these dynamics in turn, drawing on trade data at annual frequency from 2015 through 2025.

1. A Decade of Premiumisation: Rising Values on Declining Volumes

1.1 Export value grew strongly even as physical volumes contracted

The most striking feature of EU wine trade over the past decade is the divergence between value and volume in exports. Total EU wine exports grew from €12.0 billion in 2015 to €15.9 billion in 2025 — a gain of 32.3% in value. Over the same period, however, exported tonnage actually fell from 2.99 million tonnes to 2.83 million tonnes (−5.3%). The result is a sharp increase in the average export unit price, which rose from €4,023/t to €5,622/t (+39.8%). This pattern is consistent with a sustained shift toward higher-value products — particularly bottled wine and Champagne — at the expense of bulk shipments.

1.2 Imports declined sharply in both value and volume

The contraction on the import side was even more pronounced. EU wine imports fell from €1.69 billion (861,013 t) in 2015 to €1.39 billion (539,622 t) in 2025. This represents a drop of 17.8% in value and a steeper 37.3% decline in volume. Import unit prices also rose — from €1,967/t to €2,580/t (+31.2%) — but this was not enough to offset the collapse in tonnage. The EU thus became significantly less reliant on imported wine by volume, while paying more per tonne for what it did buy.

1.3 The trade surplus widened to nearly €14.5 billion

As a result of exports growing and imports shrinking, the EU's wine trade balance expanded from €10.3 billion in 2015 to €14.5 billion in 2025 (+40.6%). The net import reliance — expressed as a negative number because the EU is a net exporter — moved from −48.4% to −27.3%. The reduced magnitude reflects not a weakening export position, but rather the massive growth in EU wine production, which rose from 5.35 billion to 15.37 billion thousand cubic metres (+187.4%), expanding the denominator and thereby lowering the relative share of imports in total supply.

2. A Market in Reorientation: Geopolitical Shifts and Partner Dynamics

2.1 The United States overtook the United Kingdom as the top export destination

Throughout the period, the United States and the United Kingdom dominated EU wine exports. However, their trajectories diverged significantly. US-bound exports rose from €3.11 billion to €4.19 billion (+34.8%), while UK-bound exports grew more modestly from €2.57 billion to €3.18 billion (+23.9%). Canada (+47.3%) and Switzerland (+30.0%) also showed robust growth, reflecting stable demand in high-income markets with established wine cultures.

2.2 China suffered the steepest decline among major export markets

The most dramatic reversal occurred in the Chinese market. EU wine exports to China plunged from €813 million to €423 million (−48.0%), having peaked at €1.15 billion in the interim. The coefficient of variation for this corridor is 0.52 — the highest among the top export partners — indicating extreme instability. This decline is widely attributed to the anti-dumping tariffs China imposed on Australian wine in 2020, which initially redirected demand toward EU producers, followed by the removal of those tariffs in 2024 and broader macroeconomic cooling in China. The volatile trajectory makes China one of the least reliable export markets for EU wine.

2.3 Brexit reshaped the EU–UK wine trade on both sides of the Channel

The United Kingdom presents perhaps the most striking case of disruption. On the import side, EU wine imports from the UK collapsed by 70.7%, from €275 million to just €81 million. The import corridor shows the highest volatility among all major partners, with a coefficient of variation of 0.82. A price shock was detected in 2021, when the unit value of UK imports surged by 125.7% — consistent with the immediate post-Brexit transition period, new customs procedures, and changed rules of origin. On the export side, EU wine shipments to the UK proved more resilient (+23.9%), but the volatility in the UK import channel underscores the disruption caused by the UK's departure from the EU single market and customs union.

2.4 Import sources contracted across the board, with the UK hit hardest

Every major import partner saw a decline in export value to the EU between 2015 and 2025:

This broad contraction — in a context of declining import volumes (−37.3%) — suggests that the EU's domestic production has increasingly displaced imports. The UK's 70.7% drop is the most severe, but the decline is widespread, pointing to structural rather than merely cyclical factors.

2.5 EU import concentration decreased, while export concentration remained broadly stable

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell from 1,463 to 1,209 (−17.3%), indicating a modest diversification of supply sources despite the overall volume decline. For exports, the HHI edged down slightly from 1,362 to 1,307 (−4.1%), remaining relatively stable — a sign that the EU's main export destinations, though experiencing divergent trajectories, have not dramatically shifted in relative importance at the aggregate level.

3. Sparkling Wine's Ascent and the Enduring Dominance of the Big Four

3.1 Sparkling wine was the only export segment to record strong volume growth

A breakdown of the product segments reveals that the premiumisation trend is driven in large part by the remarkable growth of sparkling wine (CN 220410). Export volumes of sparkling wine rose from 410,225 tonnes in 2015 to 610,105 tonnes in 2025 — an increase of 48.7%. Its share of total wine export tonnage rose from 13.7% to 21.6%. In value terms, sparkling wine exports grew from €3.13 billion to €4.93 billion (+57.5%), driven by the global prestige of Champagne and Prosecco.

By contrast, the largest segment by volume — still wine in containers of ≤ 2 litres (CN 220421) — saw export tonnage decline from 2.10 million to 1.80 million tonnes (−14.4%). Bulk wine in containers of > 10 litres (CN 220429) fell even more steeply, from 452,384 to 318,187 tonnes (−29.6%).

*220422 data available from 2017; 2017 figure shown.

3.2 Import segments declined across the board, with bulk wine hit hardest

On the import side, every major segment saw volume contractions. Bulk wine (CN 220429) — the largest import category — fell from 493,024 tonnes to 283,187 tonnes (−42.6%). Bottled still wine (CN 220421) dropped from 360,881 to 225,134 tonnes (−37.7%). Sparkling wine imports (CN 220410) were more stable, declining only from 6,487 to 6,233 tonnes (−3.9%), suggesting that the EU's own sparkling production satisfies nearly all demand.

*220422 data available from 2017; 2017 figure shown.

3.3 France and Italy anchor the EU's competitive position

The EU's wine sector remains overwhelmingly concentrated in four traditional producers. France alone accounted for €7.64 billion in exports in 2025 (48.1% of the EU total), followed by Italy at €4.59 billion (28.9%). Spain (€1.57 bn) and Portugal (€550 m) round out the top four. All four display high revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) scores: France 0.64, Italy 0.59, Portugal 0.48, Spain 0.42. This concentration is a structural feature of the sector, reflecting terroir, appellation systems, and centuries of accumulated expertise.

3.4 Germany and the Netherlands dominate the EU import side

Among EU member states, Germany remained the largest importer of non-EU wine (€180 m in 2025), though this was a 46.1% decline from 2015. The Netherlands (€217 m, −25.6%) and France (€236 m, +37.1%) follow. France's rising imports — despite being the EU's top wine exporter — likely reflect a mix of re-export activity and niche demand for New World wines. Sweden saw the sharpest decline among importers (−48.5%), while Ireland bucked the trend with a modest increase (+13.3%).

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU wine sector has evolved along three principal axes. First, premiumisation has been the dominant economic trend: export values grew by 32% even as volumes contracted, lifting unit prices by nearly 40%. Sparkling wine — driven by Champagne and Prosecco — has been the engine of this value growth, nearly doubling its share of export tonnage. Second, the geography of trade has been reconfigured by geopolitical shocks: Brexit dramatically disrupted EU–UK wine flows, Chinese tariffs and subsequent removals destabilised the Asian corridor, and US demand continued to grow as the most valuable single-country export market. Third, the EU's structural dominance remains firmly rooted in France, Italy, Spain, and Portugal, which together account for over 90% of export value and hold strong comparative advantages. The contraction of imports — down 37% in volume — underscores that the EU's expanding production base has further reduced external dependence. Looking ahead, the key question is whether the premiumisation trend can be sustained in the face of changing consumer habits, climate pressures on viticulture, and the ongoing volatility in key markets such as China and the UK.