Market evolution: Sparkling wine (CN 220410) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade dynamics of sparkling wine of fresh grapes (EU customs code 220410) between the European Union and non-EU countries over the 2015–2025 period. The data reveals a period of significant growth for EU exports, driven by strong demand in key markets and a fundamental shift in the product mix toward Italian sparkling wines. Despite this robust expansion, the market has experienced notable price volatility and structural changes, influenced by geopolitical events and supply-side shocks. This analysis explores these core trends and their implications.

1. Strong and Sustained Export Growth Driven by Key Markets

The EU's sparkling wine trade balance with the rest of the world has been consistently and overwhelmingly positive, strengthening significantly over the decade. The net import reliance became even more negative, indicating the EU's deepening role as a net exporter.

1.1 The Trade Balance More Than Doubled in Value

The EU's trade surplus in sparkling wine grew from €3.09 billion in 2015 to €4.88 billion in 2025, an increase of 57.8%. This growth was fueled entirely by exports, as imports remained marginal in comparison. Total export value surged from €3.13 billion to €4.93 billion (+57.5%), while total import value grew from a low base of €39.5 million to €53.5 million.

Source: EU Sparkling Wine Trade Overview

1.2 The United States and Japan Emerged as Top Growth Engines

While the United Kingdom remained the largest single export market by value, the United States and Japan demonstrated the most dynamic growth. Exports to the US grew by 60.5% to €1.33 billion, and to Japan by 87.7% to €376 million. This diversification toward high-value Asian and North American markets reduced dependency on traditional European partners.

Source: Top Export Partners

2. A Structural Shift: Italy's Ascendancy and the Prosecco Phenomenon

The internal composition of EU sparkling wine trade underwent a dramatic transformation, with Italy challenging France's historical dominance and the Prosecco category becoming a major export driver.

2.1 Italian Sparkling Wine Export Growth Outpaced All Others

While France remained the top exporter by value, Italy's export growth was phenomenal. Italian sparkling wine exports (primarily Prosecco and Asti) grew by 115.5% from €692 million in 2015 to €1.49 billion in 2025. In contrast, French exports (led by Champagne) grew by 34.4%. This shift is reflected in the specialisation data, where Italy's Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) stands at 0.58, only slightly behind France's 0.73.

2.2 Prosecco (PDO) Became a Dominant Export Category

The product segment breakdown reveals the star performer: Prosecco (22041015). Its export volume grew from an average of ~170,000 tonnes (2017-2019) to nearly 298,000 tonnes in 2025. Its export value skyrocketed from €635 million (2017) to €1.28 billion (2025). Prosecco has fundamentally reshaped the EU's sparkling wine export basket, moving from a niche product to a mass-market global success.

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

2.3 EU Production Volumes Increased Substantially

To meet this export demand, EU production surged. The reported production quantity (in thousand cubic metres) grew by over 600% from 221,400 to 1,553,787. This immense increase underscores the scale-up in production capacity, particularly for high-volume sparkling wines like Prosecco, to service global markets.

3. Volatility, Shocks, and Market Resilience

Despite the strong growth trend, the sparkling wine market experienced significant price volatility and was impacted by discrete supply shocks, revealing vulnerabilities in specific trade corridors.

3.1 Average Export Prices Rose, but Import Prices Were More Volatile

The average export price per tonne increased modestly from €7,635 to €8,086 (+5.9%). However, import prices were far more erratic, jumping 40.8% from €6,092 to €8,580. This suggests a more fragmented and volatile import market for the small volumes the EU brings in, often from Southern Hemisphere producers like South Africa and Argentina.

3.2 Specific Supply Shocks Caused Significant Price Spikes

The volatility analysis identified major shocks. The most notable was a price shock in EU imports from the United Kingdom in 2021, with an abnormality index of 17.5 and a price shift of +234.7%. This likely reflects post-Brexit trade frictions and the re-routing of goods. A separate export volume shock occurred with Moldova in 2022, where EU exports saw a sharp increase, possibly linked to geopolitical realignments following the invasion of Ukraine.

Source: Supply Shocks

3.3 Export Market Concentration Gradually Decreased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export value concentration fell from 1,664 to 1,422 (-14.5%), indicating a slight diversification of export destinations. While major markets like the US and UK still dominate, growing trade with Canada, Australia, and Japan has modestly reduced concentration risk.

Conclusion

The EU sparkling wine sector experienced a decade of robust growth, cementing its position as the world's dominant exporter. The narrative was defined by three key dynamics: 1) a strong, sustained increase in export value driven by premiumization and market diversification, 2) a profound structural shift where Italian sparkling wines, particularly Prosecco, captured a massive share of global growth, and 3) a market that, while resilient, showed price volatility and was susceptible to geopolitical and logistical shocks affecting specific trade partners. The data portrays an industry that successfully scaled production and capitalized on global consumer trends, albeit within a sometimes turbulent trade environment.