Market evolution: Still wine in bottles (CN 220421) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade evolution of still wine in containers of 2 litres or less (excluding sparkling wine), classified under customs code 220421, for the European Union (EU) with non-EU partners between 2015 and 2025. Over this decade, the EU wine market has undergone a significant strategic shift. While the volume of EU exports has decreased, their total value has grown substantially, indicating a move towards higher-value products. Concurrently, the EU has drastically reduced its import volumes, strengthening its trade balance and reducing external dependency. This report explores the key dynamics behind these structural changes, examining value-volume divergences, regional production strengths, and market volatility.

1. A Decade of Value Growth Outpacing Volume: The Quality-Price Shift

The most prominent trend in the EU's wine trade is the divergence between value and volume, particularly in exports. The EU has exported fewer tonnes of wine but has earned significantly more revenue, signaling a shift towards premiumization.

Exports: Higher Prices Offset Lower Volumes

Between 2015 and 2025, the total value of EU wine exports to non-EU countries increased by 24.0%, from €8.43 billion to €10.45 billion. In stark contrast, the export volume in tonnes decreased by 14.3%, falling from 2.10 million tonnes to 1.80 million tonnes. This inverse movement is clear when examining the unit price, which surged by 44.8%, from €4,009 per tonne to €5,805 per tonne (General Overview). This trend suggests that the EU has successfully shifted its export basket towards higher-value wines, leveraging its quality reputation.

Imports: A Sharp Contraction in Both Volume and Value

EU imports of still wine experienced a pronounced decline. Import volume fell by 37.6%, from 360,881 tonnes in 2015 to 225,134 tonnes in 2025. Import value also decreased, albeit more moderately, by 15.1% to €1.03 billion. Like exports, import prices rose by 36.0%, indicating that the remaining imports are also of higher average value (General Overview). The sharp drop in volume, however, points to increased competition from domestic EU production and changing consumption patterns.

The Widening Positive Trade Balance

The combined effect of growing export values and falling import values has strengthened the EU's trade surplus in this sector. The trade balance (exports minus imports) improved by 30.6%, reaching €9.42 billion in 2025. This underscores the EU's dominant position as a net exporter and its reduced reliance on external suppliers (General Overview).

2. The Specialized Core: France, Italy, and Iberian Strength

The EU's wine export performance is heavily concentrated among a few key member states, each with distinct specializations. Meanwhile, the production data reveals a region increasingly geared towards export markets.

Export Leadership and Specialization

France and Italy are the undisputed leaders in export value. France, the top exporter, increased its export value by 31.0% to €4.74 billion in 2025, while Italy's exports grew by 18.3% to €2.97 billion. Spain and Portugal also showed robust growth. The data on revealed comparative advantage (RCA) confirms this specialization: France, Italy, and Portugal all have an RCA significantly above 1 (4.14, 4.23, and 4.28, respectively), indicating they are highly specialized in wine exports (Market Structure).

Production Growth Fuels Export Capacity

The growth in export value is supported by a significant expansion in EU production volumes and values. Reported production volume in thousand cubic metres grew by 183.0% from 2015 to 2025, while production value more than doubled (+122.7%) (Market Structure). This surge, particularly in value, aligns with the observed export premiumization and suggests that EU producers are increasingly focused on higher-quality output for international markets.

3. Navigating Volatility: Key Markets and Price Shocks

While the overall trend points to growth, the trade flows with specific partners have been volatile, influenced by geopolitical and economic shocks. Price volatility has been a notable feature, especially in imports.

Import Volatility Concentrated in Key Suppliers

Among the top import partners, the United Kingdom stands out for its extreme price volatility, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.81. Other significant suppliers like the United States (CV: 0.38) and Georgia (CV: 0.38) also show high volatility. In contrast, traditional suppliers like Chile (CV: 0.13) and New Zealand (CV: 0.09) have been relatively stable (Volatility & Shocks). This suggests that EU imports are exposed to pricing instability from several key partners.

Notable Price Shocks in the Trade Data

The data identifies several significant price shock events. The most pronounced was in imports from the United Kingdom in 2021, where prices shifted by 119.8% year-on-year. Similarly, a major price shock occurred in imports from the United States in 2018 (+89.9%). These events likely reflect the impacts of Brexit-related trade barriers and the 2018-2019 US-EU tariff disputes on wine (Volatility & Shocks). Export volatility is generally lower, though China shows high volume volatility (CV: 0.51), indicating a more fluctuating demand from that market.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in still wine (CN 220421) has undergone a fundamental transformation characterized by strategic premiumization and increased self-reliance. The bloc has successfully navigated away from a volume-driven model to a higher-value one, as evidenced by soaring export prices and unit values. This shift is underpinned by strong and specialized production in core member states like France, Italy, Spain, and Portugal, whose export growth has been robust despite declining volumes.

Concurrently, the EU has significantly reduced its import footprint, particularly in volume, leading to a strengthened trade surplus and reduced net import reliance. While trade with key partners like the UK and US has been subject to significant price shocks due to geopolitical factors, the overall market has demonstrated resilience. The EU wine sector's future trajectory appears firmly oriented towards consolidating its position as a global leader in high-value wines, leveraging its quality denominations and regional strengths to compete effectively on the international stage.