Market evolution: Bordeaux red wine (CN 22042142) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the extra-EU trade dynamics of Bordeaux red wine with Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) — defined under customs code 22042142 — over the period 2015–2025. The product covers still red wines produced in Bordeaux, in containers of ≤ 2 litres and at ≤ 15% alcohol by volume, carrying PDO status (excluding sparkling, semi-sparkling, and white wines). The EU — overwhelmingly France — is the world's dominant exporter of this product category, with France accounting for over 91% of EU export value in 2025. Over the decade under review, the Bordeaux red wine market underwent a profound structural transformation: export volumes contracted sharply while unit values surged, the geographic centre of gravity shifted away from Asian markets toward the Anglo-Saxon world and Switzerland, and the EU consolidated its position as a massive net exporter. The following sections explore these dynamics in detail.

1. Fewer bottles, higher prices: the great volume-price divergence

The most striking macro-level trend over 2015–2025 is a pronounced divergence between traded volumes and traded values. While total export revenues held broadly steady — even increasing slightly — the physical quantity of Bordeaux red wine shipped to non-EU destinations fell dramatically. This section unpacks the scale and timing of this divergence and its implications for the market's pricing structure.

1.1 Export volumes fell by a third while export values edged higher

Between the first and last years of the period, EU exports of Bordeaux red wine fell from 139,170 tonnes (2015) to 92,925 tonnes (2025), a decline of 33.2%. Over the same period, export value rose from €1,467 million to €1,508 million (+2.8%). The supplementary quantity (measured in thousand cubic metres) tells a consistent story, declining from 136,899 to 92,881 thousand m³ (−32.2%). In other words, the EU shipped roughly one-third fewer bottles of Bordeaux red wine abroad in 2025 than it did in 2015, yet earned slightly more from those shipments.

The peak export value over the decade was €1,900 million, while the volume peak was 161,486 tonnes, both recorded in intervening years. The fact that the 2025 unit value of €16,230/tonne represents an increase of 54.0% over 2015 illustrates how steeply the price per unit of Bordeaux red wine has risen on international markets.

1.2 Import prices rose even more steeply, reflecting premiumisation of re-imports

EU imports of Bordeaux red wine from non-EU countries are small relative to exports (€54 million in 2025 versus €1,508 million in exports), but they tell an interesting story. Import volumes also shrank — from 625 tonnes to 349 tonnes (−44.2%) — while import value rose from €35 million to €54 million (+54.8%). The resulting unit value of €155,395/tonne in 2025 is nearly ten times the export unit value, suggesting that the wines being re-imported (e.g., via the UK or Switzerland) are overwhelmingly top-tier, high-value Bordeaux destined for collectors or secondary-market transactions. The import unit value surged 177.5% over the decade, far outpacing the 54.0% increase in export unit values.

1.3 Domestic production held steady in volume but grew in value

EU production volumes of this PDO category were remarkably stable: approximately 2,591 thousand m³ in 2015 versus 2,580 thousand m³ in 2025 (−0.4%). This near-constancy in output contrasts sharply with the 33% drop in export volumes, implying that a growing share of production is either consumed domestically within the EU or redirected to other channels not captured in the extra-EU trade data. Meanwhile, production value rose from €6,330 million to €7,040 million (+11.2%), again confirming the industry-wide trend of rising average prices for Bordeaux PDO red wine.

2. A shifting geographic centre of gravity: Asia's retreat and the Anglo-Saxon advance

Behind the aggregate numbers lies a dramatic reshuffling of the EU's main export destinations. Asian markets — once the primary growth engines for Bordeaux — experienced steep declines, while traditional Western markets proved more resilient or even expanded. The geographic diversification of the EU's export portfolio is one of the decade's defining features.

2.1 China and Hong Kong: from boom to bust

The most dramatic geographic story is the collapse of exports to China. China was the EU's largest single export destination in 2015 at €273 million; by 2025, this had fallen to €120 million (−55.8%). Hong Kong followed a similar trajectory, declining from €272 million to €158 million (−42.0%). Together, China and Hong Kong accounted for an estimated €545 million — well over one-third of total export value — in 2015. By 2025, their combined share had fallen to approximately €279 million, representing a far smaller share of the now slightly larger total. Several factors likely contributed to this shift, including China's 2021 imposition of anti-dumping tariffs on Australian wine (which redirected some demand patterns), changing consumption habits among Chinese middle-class consumers, and the broader post-COVID macroeconomic slowdown in China. The volatility of trade with these partners is also notable: China's coefficient of variation (CV) on exports stood at 0.47, and Hong Kong's at 0.30 — far higher than the stability seen in Anglo-Saxon markets (see section 3).

2.2 The United States and the United Kingdom emerged as the top two destinations

With Asia retreating, the United Kingdom and the United States consolidated their positions as the EU's two most valuable export markets. The UK grew from €203 million to €264 million (+29.9%), while the US rose from €186 million to €258 million (+38.8%). Both markets are characterised by remarkably low volatility in export values: the UK's CV is just 0.057 and the US's is 0.093, making them the most stable destinations in the dataset. This stability — reflecting entrenched consumer preferences and well-established distribution channels — stands in contrast to the boom-bust dynamics observed in Asian markets.

Switzerland deserves special mention: it nearly doubled its imports of EU Bordeaux red wine, rising from €91 million to €176 million (+92.4%), the strongest growth rate among the top seven destinations. This may reflect Switzerland's role as both a consumption market and a re-export hub, as well as the premium positioning of Bordeaux wines among Swiss consumers. Canada also expanded significantly, from €50 million to €74 million (+47.9%).

2.3 Japan declined, confirming a broader Asian malaise

Japan, the third major Asian market for Bordeaux, also contracted — from €103 million to €78 million (−24.3%). While less dramatic than the declines in China and Hong Kong, this confirms a broader pattern of retreat across Asian markets. A notable price shock was detected in 2022, when the abnormality score reached 8.4 and the price shift was +24.8% — the most pronounced shock event in the dataset. This may reflect the sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen against the euro in 2022, which raised the euro-denominated unit value of shipments.

2.4 Export concentration decreased, reflecting geographic diversification

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports by value fell from 1,174 in 2015 to 1,003 in 2025 (−14.6%). While the index was never high enough to indicate heavy concentration, its decline reflects the reallocation of exports away from the previously dominant China–Hong Kong axis toward a broader set of markets. Import-side concentration fell even more steeply, from 4,799 to 3,594 (−25.1%), indicating that the EU's import sources (primarily re-imports from the UK and Switzerland) also diversified.

3. Rising trade openness and EU structural dominance

The final theme concerns the EU's overall position in global Bordeaux red wine trade and the evolving structural characteristics of the market. The data reveals a market that has become more trade-oriented, more export-dependent, and more firmly anchored in France's comparative advantage.

3.1 Export propensity and trade intensity both increased by over a quarter

Export propensity — the share of EU production exported outside the bloc — rose from 38.2% in 2015 to 48.4% in 2025 (+26.9%). Trade intensity followed a similar trajectory, increasing from 38.6% to 48.8% (+26.4%). Both indicators peaked during the period (at 56.1% and 56.6% respectively), suggesting a structural shift in the industry's outward orientation.

This rising openness occurred even as export volumes declined, because production volumes were essentially flat. The implication is that domestic EU consumption of Bordeaux red wine has been absorbing a smaller fraction of output, while the pricing uplift from the premiumisation trend has made export markets increasingly attractive in value terms.

3.2 Net export dependence deepened substantially

The net import reliance indicator — which is negative when the EU is a net exporter — went from −59.8% in 2015 to −91.2% in 2025. This deepening confirms that the EU's net export position strengthened significantly over the decade, driven by the simultaneous growth of export value and the marginal scale of imports relative to exports. The trade balance remained firmly positive throughout, hovering around €1.4–1.5 billion and peaking at €1,836 million.

3.3 France's dominance is near-total, but other EU members are emerging as re-exporters

The specialisation data for 2025 shows France with an RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage) of 11.67 and a normalised RSCA of 0.84 — confirming overwhelming specialisation. France's share of EU production value was 91.2% and its share of total EU exports was 7.8% (relative to all product categories). No other EU member comes close: Denmark's RCA is 0.75, Luxembourg's 0.46, Belgium's 0.32, and Germany's just 0.10.

However, the reporter-level export data reveals notable shifts among non-French EU exporters. Spain's extra-EU exports of this product surged from €1 million to €34 million (+3,441%), and Italy's rose from €1 million to €11 million (+845%). These likely reflect re-exports or transhipments of Bordeaux wine through Mediterranean logistics hubs rather than domestic production. Meanwhile, Germany's and the Netherlands' roles diminished significantly (−60.5% and −62.1% respectively), possibly as post-Brexit trade flows re-routed around the former EU–UK customs corridor.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for Bordeaux PDO red wine (CN 22042142) underwent a fundamental transformation driven by three interlocking dynamics. First, a steep decline in export volumes (−33.2%) was more than offset by surging unit values (+54.0%), enabling export revenues to hold broadly steady at around €1.5 billion. Second, the geographic footprint of EU exports shifted decisively: China and Hong Kong — once the largest combined market — saw their share erode by over half, while the UK, US, and Switzerland absorbed the displaced volumes and grew. Third, the EU's structural position as the world's dominant supplier deepened, with export propensity rising to 48.4% and net export reliance strengthening to −91.2%. The market that emerges at the end of the period is one that is more price-driven, more geographically diversified toward Western economies, and more dependent on the premium end of the wine spectrum. The principal risk ahead lies in the concentration of stability in a handful of Anglo-Saxon markets, while the volatile Asian markets that previously offered the greatest growth potential continue to contract.