Market evolution: PDO red wine (CN 22042178) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU extra-Union trade in PDO red wine classified under customs code 22042178 over the period 2015–2025. This product category covers EU-produced red (and rosé) wines with a Protected Designation of Origin, in containers of ≤ 2 litres and at ≤ 15% alcohol by volume, excluding the major specifically coded appellations (Bordeaux, Bourgogne, Beaujolais, Vallée du Rhône, Languedoc-Roussillon, Val de Loire, Sicilia, Piemonte, Toscana, Trentino, Alto Adige, Veneto, Dão, Bairrada, Douro, Navarra, Penedés, Rioja, Valdepeñas) as well as sparkling, semi-sparkling, and white wines. The category therefore captures a broad and diverse set of PDO red wines from across the EU — including lesser-known French regional appellations, German and Austrian reds, Greek PDO wines, and wines from Central and Eastern European member states, among others. Over the eleven-year window, the data reveals a market defined by three overarching dynamics: a sustained premiumisation of export flows, a pronounced geographic reorientation of both destinations and origin member states, and a deepening of the EU's structural position as a net exporter.

1. A Decade of Premiumisation: Export Values Rise While Volumes Decline

The most striking feature of EU trade in this product over the 2015–2025 period is a pronounced divergence between export volume and export value. While the tonnage shipped to non-EU markets fell substantially, total export revenues rose — a pattern consistent with the broader premiumisation trend observed across the European wine sector.

Export volumes have contracted significantly from their peak

EU export volumes for CN 22042178 stood at 206,130 tonnes in 2015 and appear to have risen to a peak of approximately 249,952 tonnes during the period before declining to just 158,536 tonnes by 2025 — a cumulative drop of 23.1% from the 2015 baseline and a fall of nearly 37% from the peak. The decline accelerated from 2020 onward, with the last available figure marking the minimum of the entire series. This contraction likely reflects a combination of the COVID-19 pandemic's disruption to global wine logistics and on-trade consumption, subsequent inventory adjustments, and possible climate-related supply tightening in certain vintages.

Rising unit prices more than compensated for the volume shortfall

Despite shipping substantially less wine, EU exporters earned €955.4 million in 2025 compared to €776.8 million in 2015 — a gain of 23.0% in value terms. The unit price of EU exports rose from €3,769 per tonne in 2015 to €6,026 per tonne in 2025, an increase of 59.9%. The peak export value reached approximately €1,150 million (likely around 2022), with unit prices touching a maximum of €6,136 per tonne. The trajectory is clear: EU exporters have shifted toward higher-value shipments, either through deliberate trade-up strategies, compositional changes in the PDO wines exported, or currency and inflation effects.

Import flows have collapsed to negligible levels

EU imports of this product were already small in 2015 at just 4,050 tonnes (€12.5 million) and have since fallen by 90.9% in volume and 63.1% in value. By 2025, only 369 tonnes (€4.6 million) were imported. The residual imports that remain are characterised by very high unit prices (€12,461/t in 2025 vs. €3,074/t in 2015, a 305.3% increase), suggesting that they consist of niche, ultra-premium products rather than bulk wine. The collapse of import volumes from traditional sources — notably the United Kingdom (from €10.8 million to €1.8 million) and China (from €0.05 million to €318) — reinforces the picture of a market where the EU's own PDO production satisfies virtually all demand.

2. Geographic Reorientation: Anglo-Saxon Markets Consolidate While Asian Demand Weakens

The period saw a notable reshuffling of both the EU's export destinations and the relative weight of exporting member states. The overall effect has been a concentration of demand in English-speaking and mature Western markets, alongside a marked retreat from key Asian buyers.

The United States and United Kingdom have become the dominant export destinations

US-bound exports grew from €219.1 million in 2015 to €278.8 million in 2025 (+27.2%), while exports to the United Kingdom nearly doubled from €82.2 million to €161.3 million (+96.2%). Together, these two Anglo-Saxon markets accounted for the lion's share of the €955 million in 2025 exports. Switzerland also expanded steadily (€119.0 million → €129.4 million, +8.8%), and Canada remained stable (€78.7 million → €87.3 million, +10.9%). These four markets exhibit notably low export volatility, with coefficient of variation values between 0.074 (Norway/Canada) and 0.126 (UK), indicating reliable, sustained demand.

Chinese and Japanese demand has contracted sharply

The most dramatic reversal occurred in China, where EU PDO red wine exports fell from €73.0 million in 2015 to just €19.2 million in 2025 — a decline of 73.7%. The data suggests values peaked well above this during the intervening period (at approximately €106.4 million). Japanese exports similarly contracted from €43.8 million to €27.2 million (−38.0%). Both markets exhibited higher volatility than the Anglo-Saxon counterparts, with coefficient of variation values of 0.585 for China and 0.237 for Japan. This retreat likely reflects a combination of the Chinese economic slowdown, tariff and regulatory pressures, competition from domestic Chinese wine production and New World suppliers, and shifting consumer preferences.

France has surged ahead as the EU's leading exporter, overtaking Spain

Among EU member-state exporters, the most dramatic shift has been France's ascent. French exports in this category nearly doubled from €161.2 million in 2015 to €311.6 million in 2025 (+93.3%), overtaking Spain (€298.7 million → €279.5 million, −6.4%) to become the largest exporter by value. Italy grew modestly (€226.3 million → €245.6 million, +8.5%), while Portugal showed strong momentum (€17.8 million → €28.8 million, +62.0%). France's rise likely reflects the strong international demand for lesser-known French appellations (such as those from the Sud-Ouest, Jura, or Corsica) as well as the premium positioning that French PDO wines command. Spain's decline, despite maintaining the largest volume share, may reflect competitive pressures in price-sensitive segments.

The specialisation data for 2025 confirms that Spain (RSCA: 0.624), Italy (0.558), and France (0.538) are the most specialised exporters, followed by Portugal (0.228) and Greece (0.172).

3. Deepening Structural Autonomy: The EU as an Ever-More Dominant Net Exporter

Beyond the value and geographic shifts, the data reveals a structural deepening of the EU's role as a net exporter of PDO red wine. Every autonomy indicator has strengthened over the period, and production has remained remarkably resilient despite global disruptions.

Net export reliance has intensified sharply

The EU's net import reliance ratio — already deeply negative at −59.8% in 2015 — fell further to −91.2% by 2025, reaching a minimum of −122.2% during the period. A negative value indicates that the EU is a net exporter; the deepening of this ratio means that the trade surplus relative to domestic production has grown. The EU is not only producing enough to satisfy its own demand but is exporting an increasing share of its output.

Trade intensity and export propensity have both risen by over 25%

Trade intensity (the sum of exports and imports as a share of production) rose from 38.6% in 2015 to 48.8% in 2025 (+26.4%), while export propensity (exports as a share of production) grew from 38.2% to 48.4% (+26.9%). These increases are consistent with both the premiumisation of exports (higher values relative to production value) and the shrinkage of imports. The near-identical trajectory of the two indicators underscores that international trade in this product is almost entirely an export story; imports are too small to move the needle.

EU production has remained remarkably stable

Domestic production volumes for this product category changed by only −0.4% over the period (from approximately 2,591 million to 2,580 million supplementary units), while production value rose by 11.2% (from €6.33 billion to €7.04 billion). This stability in output, despite increasing climate variability and supply-chain disruptions, suggests that the EU's diverse PDO wine production base has provided resilience. The flat volume growth combined with rising values mirrors the export-side premiumisation pattern.

Export concentration has remained stable while import concentration has collapsed

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports was essentially unchanged at around 1,412–1,483 (value) over the period, indicating a moderately diversified export base with no meaningful change in concentration. By contrast, the import HHI collapsed from 7,659 to 2,707 (−64.7%), reflecting the disintegration of what was already a small, concentrated import market. The decline of the UK as the dominant import source (from €10.8 million to €1.8 million) is the primary driver of this de-concentration, as remaining imports are scattered across a wider set of smaller suppliers such as Switzerland and the United States.

Import-side volatility underscores the marginality of incoming flows

The coefficient of variation for imports from major partners is extremely high — often exceeding 1.0 (e.g., US: 1.40, China: 1.67, Korea: 1.71, Russia: 2.56) — indicating that these flows are erratic and small in absolute terms. The detected shock events, such as the 2022 Korean import price spike (+2,873.6%), are statistical anomalies driven by tiny trade volumes rather than by structural market shifts. The EU's PDO red wine market is therefore essentially immune to external supply disruptions.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, EU trade in PDO red wine under CN 22042178 has undergone a transformation that can be summarised in three words: less volume, more value. Export quantities have fallen by 23% from their 2015 level (and by even more from their mid-period peak), yet export revenues have risen by 23% thanks to a 60% increase in unit prices. This premiumisation has been accompanied by a decisive geographic reorientation: the United States and the United Kingdom have consolidated their positions as the EU's top customers, while Chinese demand has contracted by nearly three-quarters. Among EU exporters, France has emerged as the dominant force by value, overtaking Spain, while Portugal has shown the fastest growth. Structurally, the EU's net export position has deepened significantly, with trade intensity and export propensity both rising by over 25% and imports shrinking to near-irrelevance. Domestic production has remained stable in volume and grown in value, underpinning the EU's autonomy in this category. Looking ahead, the key risks and opportunities lie in sustaining price premiums in mature Anglo-Saxon markets, managing the volatility inherent in smaller Asian and emerging-market destinations, and adapting production to climate pressures that may increasingly test the resilience demonstrated over the past decade.