Market evolution: White wine (CN 22042179) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's external trade in white wine with Protected Geographical Indication (PGI), as defined by customs code 22042179, between 2015 and 2025. The analysis focuses on identifying the primary dynamics in trade volumes, values, market structure, and strategic positioning. The EU has historically been a dominant global producer and exporter of this wine category. Over the decade, the trade data reveals a pronounced contraction in export volumes, a significant realignment of key markets, and increased price resilience, amidst broader shifts in production and global demand patterns.

For a detailed overview of the product scope and data, see the Scope & Definitions.

1. A Paradox of Falling Volumes and Rising Unit Prices

The most striking trend in EU trade for this wine category over the period is the stark divergence between declining volumes and increasing unit values. While the EU's export quantity more than halved, the price per tonne rose significantly, indicating a fundamental shift in the market's composition or strategy.

1.1 Steep Decline in Export Volumes

The total quantity of EU exports (by net mass) fell from 274,617 tonnes in 2015 to 145,582 tonnes in 2025, a decrease of 47%. This decline was not linear but occurred in several stages, with a particularly sharp drop around 2020. The volume followed a similar downward trajectory when measured in the supplementary unit (thousand cubic metres), falling by 47.8%. This consistent contraction across measurement units suggests a genuine reduction in the physical amount of wine shipped to non-EU markets, not merely a change in wine density or packaging.

The total export value followed a related but less severe path, declining from €719 million to €468 million (-35%). The differential between the volume drop (-47%) and value drop (-35%) is explained by rising unit prices.

1.2 Resilient and Climbing Unit Prices

Despite the volume contraction, the average export price increased substantially. The price per tonne rose from €2,618 in 2015 to €3,214 in 2025, a gain of 22.8%. This price appreciation was also reflected in the supplementary price per 1,000 m³, which rose by 24.7%.

A plausible interpretation is a compositional shift in exports toward higher-value wines. As volumes fell, the remaining trade may have concentrated on more premium PGI white wines, or producers may have successfully passed on rising costs or captured greater value from their brands. The price increase also shows resilience even during the pandemic years (2020-2021), when export volumes were at their lowest.

For the full trade flow data, consult the General Overview.

2. Shifting Centres of Gravity in Production and Trade

The decade witnessed a significant geographical reorientation within the EU, both in terms of producing Member States and export destination markets. While the Union's overall net exporter status strengthened, its export concentration and the role of key partners evolved considerably.

2.1 Consolidation Among Exporting Nations and Stable Production

Among EU Member States, Italy remained the largest exporter by value throughout the period, although its share declined from €534 million in 2015 to €221 million in 2025 (-58.5%). In contrast, France saw its exports grow from €108 million to €135 million (+24.8%), reinforcing its position as the second-largest exporter. Portugal emerged as a major growth story, with exports surging by 144.7% to €21.8 million.

Domestically, EU production of this wine category remained relatively stable in volume, fluctuating around 6.1-6.2 thousand cubic metres. However, the production value increased by 29.4% over the period, pointing to inflation, premiumization, or improved yields of higher-value grapes within the sector. This stability in production amidst falling export volumes suggests a greater share of output was directed towards intra-EU consumption or other product categories.

2.2 Destabilization of Traditional Export Markets

The concentration of EU exports (as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index on value) halved from 3,016 to 1,539 between 2015 and 2025. This indicates a substantial diversification away from a few dominant partners.

• The United Kingdom remained the top destination, but its imports from the EU fell from €186 million to €118 million (-36.6%).
• The United States experienced the most dramatic collapse, with import values plummeting from €339 million to €112 million (-67.0%). This sharp decline is a major factor behind the overall reduction in EU export volumes.
• Growth in Alternative Markets: Exports to several other countries grew, including Canada (+1.2%), Russia (+15.0%), Japan (+12.6%), Switzerland (+21.0%), and Norway (+88.8%). This diversification helped offset some of the losses from the US and UK, albeit not fully in volume terms.

The top specialized EU producers in 2025 were Greece, France, Italy, Portugal, and Spain, all exhibiting strong Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA). This confirms the sector's core remains in Mediterranean and Western Europe. Meanwhile, the EU's import market for this wine collapsed, falling by over 95% in value, with the UK's pre-Brexit role as a supplier vanishing entirely.

To analyze the changing partner landscape, see the data on Top Partners by Value.

3. Increased Strategic Autonomy Amidst Price Volatility

While the EU strengthened its net exporter position, it also faced increased price volatility in certain markets and evolved its strategic trade metrics. The sector demonstrated high trade intensity but faced challenges that affected its external vulnerability profile.

3.1 The UK Price Shock and General Volatility

A notable price shock was detected in EU exports to the United Kingdom in 2022, where abnormal price volatility coincided with a 42.8% price shift. This event likely reflects the post-Brexit transition adjustments, including new trade frictions and administrative costs. More broadly, the coefficient of variation (CV) in export values was moderate for major partners like the UK (0.29) and Japan (0.08), indicating generally stable long-term trade relationships, though some markets like Brazil and South Korea showed higher volatility.

3.2 Strengthened Net Exporter Status but Altered Strategic Metrics

The EU's net import reliance, a measure of trade balance strength, became more negative (i.e., the EU became a larger net exporter), moving from -22.3% in 2015 to -35.3% in 2025. This increased despite the fall in export volumes, underscoring the even more drastic collapse of imports.

However, the strategic profile shows nuanced shifts:

• Trade Intensity (total trade as a share of production) remained very high but stable at around 57-58%, confirming the sector's deep integration into global markets.
• Export Propensity (exports as a share of production) rose slightly from 46.6% to 48.1%, indicating that a growing portion of the stable production base is dedicated to export markets.

For details on these strategic indicators, refer to the Autonomy & Vulnerability section.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade in PGI white wine underwent a significant transformation. The defining characteristic was a sharp contraction in export volumes, led by a severe decline in shipments to the United States and, to a lesser extent, the United Kingdom. This was counterbalanced by a resilient rise in unit export prices and diversification towards other growth markets like Norway, Switzerland, and Japan, alongside the consolidation of traditional suppliers France and Portugal.

Production volumes remained stable, suggesting the market adjusted through price increases and market selection rather than a downsizing of the vine base. The EU's position as a net exporter solidified, and the sector maintained a high degree of trade integration. Key challenges included managing price volatility—exemplified by the 2022 UK shock—and adapting to the structural loss of the US as a primary volume market. The future trajectory will likely depend on the sector's ability to sustain premiumization and navigate evolving consumer preferences and trade relations in its diversified portfolio of export destinations.