Market evolution: Mixed fermented beverages (CN 2206) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU external trade in products covered by Combined Nomenclature code 2206 — encompassing cider, perry, mead, saké, and other fermented beverages and mixtures thereof (excluding beer, wine, and related products). The period under review, 2015–2025, reveals a market defined by three overarching dynamics: premiumisation (rising prices against declining volumes), a geographic reorientation of trade flows (notably Japan's emergence as a leading import source and the collapse of Russia-bound exports), and a strengthening of the EU's net exporter position with growing export propensity. The EU remains overwhelmingly a net exporter in this category, with a trade surplus that widened from €331 million in 2015 to €394 million in 2025 (+19%).

For definitions and scope, see the product overview.

1. Premiumisation: Rising Values Against Declining Volumes

1.1 Export values grew while tonnage contracted

The most striking feature of the period is the divergence between trade values and physical volumes. EU exports of CN 2206 products rose in value from €384.4 million (2015) to €454.9 million (2025), an increase of 18.3%. Yet over the same period, export volume fell from 323,060 tonnes to 309,560 tonnes (−4.2%). The average export price consequently climbed from €1,190/tonne to €1,470/tonne (+23.5%), signalling a clear shift toward higher-value-added products in the EU's export basket.

This pattern is consistent with a broader trend in fermented beverages: consumers in key destination markets appear to be trading up toward premium ciders, sakés, craft meads, and artisanal fermented beverages, even as total consumption in volume terms has stagnated or declined.

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1.2 Import prices rose even more steeply

On the import side, the premiumisation effect is even more pronounced. EU import values rose modestly from €53.8 million to €61.4 million (+14.0%), but import volumes contracted sharply from 50,109 tonnes to 34,395 tonnes (−31.4%). The average import price thus surged from €1,074/tonne to €1,784/tonne (+66.1%).

This steep price increase on the import side reflects the growing weight of Japan — a high-value supplier of saké and other premium fermented beverages — in the EU's import portfolio, as discussed in Section 2 below. It also suggests that lower-value import flows (such as traditional fermented beverages from Eastern Europe) have diminished in relative importance.

1.3 Production followed the same pattern

EU domestic production of CN 2206 products mirrored the external trade dynamics. Production volumes (in thousand cubic metres) declined from 1,827,958 thousand m³ to 1,500,000 thousand m³ (−17.9%), while production values rose from €1.2 billion to €1.84 billion (+53.3%). This confirms that premiumisation is not merely a trade phenomenon but reflects a structural shift within the EU's production landscape.

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2. Geographic Reorientation of Trade Flows

2.1 Japan's rise as the EU's primary import source

The most dramatic shift in the import side has been the rise of Japan. In 2015, Japan supplied €6.4 million worth of CN 2206 products to the EU; by 2025, this had grown to €17.0 million (+167.8%). Japan's share of EU imports has grown substantially, and it now constitutes the largest single-country import source by value, overtaking the United Kingdom. This growth reflects the surging global popularity of saké and the EU's growing appetite for Japanese premium fermented beverages.

2.2 The collapse of Ukraine and the decline of other Eastern European suppliers

In stark contrast, Ukraine — which supplied €6.0 million in 2015 — saw its exports to the EU collapse to just €1.5 million (−74.1%). The coefficient of variation for Ukraine-sourced imports is extremely high (0.96), indicating extreme volatility and likely reflecting the disruption caused by the war following Russia's 2022 invasion. Russia-bound EU exports also collapsed, falling from €31.8 million to €13.2 million (−58.4%), largely due to EU sanctions and Russian counter-sanctions. Belarus imports, though small in absolute terms, also declined (−27.1%).

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2.3 Export markets: the US grows, Australia collapses

On the export side, the United States has become an increasingly important destination, with EU exports to the US growing from €62.5 million to €116.2 million (+86.0%). This makes the US the second-largest export market after the United Kingdom. By contrast, exports to Australia collapsed from €25.1 million to just €6.0 million (−76.0%), a decline of striking magnitude. Norway and South Korea also showed strong growth (+112.7% and +134.0% respectively), suggesting that niche markets for premium European fermented beverages are expanding in Nordic and Asian economies.

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2.4 Declining concentration of trade

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for both imports and exports declined over the period. For imports by value, the HHI fell from 3,227 to 2,161 (−33.0%); for exports by value, it fell from 2,787 to 2,231 (−20.0%). This indicates that trade has become more diversified across partners — a positive development from a supply-security perspective, reducing dependence on any single trading partner.

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3. Internal EU Restructuring and Deepening Global Integration

3.1 Italy emerged as the EU's export powerhouse

Within the EU, the most dramatic shift has been Italy's ascent as a leading exporter of CN 2206 products. Italy's exports surged from €37.0 million in 2015 to €97.7 million in 2025 (+164.2%), making it the top EU Member State exporter by value. Ireland also saw strong growth (+84.2%), while Sweden — formerly the largest exporter — declined by 32.9%. Germany grew steadily (+50.9%), while Lithuania contracted significantly (−46.6%).

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3.2 Import-side shifts: the Netherlands and France grew sharply

On the import side, the Netherlands saw the most dramatic growth, with imports rising from €2.2 million to €7.9 million (+258.6%). France also surged from €3.8 million to €11.7 million (+203.2%). Meanwhile, Spain's imports fell from €7.8 million to €4.1 million (−47.4%) and Sweden's declined by 48.9%. These shifts likely reflect evolving consumption patterns and, in the case of the Netherlands, its role as a major logistics hub.

3.3 The EU's net exporter position strengthened markedly

The EU's net import reliance shifted from −4.3% in 2015 to −30.9% in 2025. A negative value indicates a net exporter; the deepening of this negative figure means the EU's export surplus relative to its domestic market has grown substantially. This reflects both the decline in import volumes and the growth in export values.

3.4 Export propensity and trade intensity surged

The export propensity (exports as a share of production) rose from 6.0% to 27.0% (+348.3%), while trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) climbed from 7.8% to 29.3% (+276.2%). These figures indicate that the EU's mixed fermented beverages sector has become significantly more export-oriented and integrated into global markets over the decade. The salience score for export propensity (371.4) exceeds that of trade intensity (296.9), confirming that the export drive has been the primary engine of this globalisation.

*Negative values deepening; percentage change reflects the magnitude of the shift.

3.5 Specialisation patterns reveal a geographically concentrated industry

In 2025, the most specialised EU exporters (measured by revealed symmetric comparative advantage, RSCA) were Estonia (RSCA 0.91), Croatia (0.85), and Lithuania (0.72). These smaller Member States have developed strong comparative advantages in this product category, likely driven by local cider and mead traditions. At the other end of the spectrum, Malta, Luxembourg, and Ireland show negative RSCA values, indicating they are net importers or lack comparative advantage in this category.

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Conclusion

The EU's trade in CN 2206 products over the 2015–2025 period tells a story of structural transformation. The market has become more value-driven, more export-oriented, and more geographically diversified. Three key takeaways emerge:

1. Premiumisation is the dominant force. Both exports and imports have shifted toward higher unit values even as physical volumes have declined. EU production has followed the same pattern, with output values rising 53% while volumes fell 18%. This points to a maturing market in which consumers increasingly seek quality over quantity.

2. Geopolitical shocks reshaped trade geography. The Russia–Ukraine conflict profoundly disrupted traditional Eastern European trade flows: Ukraine's exports to the EU collapsed by 74%, and Russia-bound EU exports fell by 58%. Meanwhile, Japan's rise to become the EU's top import source (+168%) and the US's growing importance as an export destination (+86%) represent a westward and eastward pivot in trade orientation.

3. The EU is a strengthening net exporter. The EU's trade surplus widened to €394 million in 2025, with export propensity reaching 27% of production. Italy emerged as the leading EU exporter, overtaking Sweden. The declining HHI on both sides of trade indicates a healthier, more diversified trading relationship with the rest of the world.

Looking ahead, the sector's vulnerability lies primarily in its exposure to geopolitical disruption (as demonstrated by the Russia–Ukraine shocks) and its reliance on premiumisation dynamics that could be tested by economic downturns. However, the growing diversification of both partners and EU Member State exporters provides a more resilient foundation for the future.