Market evolution: Industrial minerals (CN 25) — 2015–2025

Introduction

CN 25 is a broad heading covering salt, sulphur, earths and stone, plastering materials, lime and cement — collectively the raw mineral feedstocks of construction, agriculture, chemicals, and manufacturing. Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's external trade in these products underwent a dramatic structural transformation. Imports surged by 53% in volume and 44.5% in value, while export volumes contracted by 26.8% — turning a roughly balanced trade position into a deficit approaching €1.9 billion. This report examines the main dynamics behind these headline figures, focusing on three interconnected themes: the diverging trajectories of imports and exports, the pivotal role of cement in reshaping the trade balance, and the increasing concentration and vulnerability of the EU's supply relationships.

1. A widening trade deficit driven by surging import volumes

1.1 Imports grew relentlessly while export volumes declined

The most striking feature of the decade is the divergence between import and export volumes. EU imports of CN 25 products rose from 54.9 million tonnes in 2015 to 84.0 million tonnes in 2025, a 53.0% increase. Over the same period, export volumes fell from 58.7 million to 43.0 million tonnes (−26.8%). The EU therefore moved from being a marginal net exporter in volume terms (58.7 Mt exported vs. 54.9 Mt imported) to a clear net importer (43.0 Mt exported vs. 84.0 Mt imported).

1.2 Export values were propped up by rising unit prices

Despite the volume contraction, export values barely changed — edging up 1.4% from €4.08 billion to €4.14 billion. This resilience is entirely explained by a 38.5% increase in average export unit prices, from €69.6 per tonne to €96.3 per tonne. In other words, the EU shipped far fewer tonnes abroad but commanded significantly higher prices per unit, suggesting a shift toward higher-value-added or more processed products in the export basket.

Source: General Overview

1.3 Import prices held steady or declined even as volumes surged

A notable feature of the import side is that average import prices actually fell by 5.6% over the period (from €75.9/t to €71.7/t), even as volumes grew by over 50%. This indicates that the EU's import growth was not driven by inflationary pricing but by a genuine increase in the physical quantities of raw materials being sourced externally — a structural, not merely monetary, phenomenon. The import price reached its peak at €90.7/t (likely around 2022, during the energy crisis), before easing back.

1.4 The trade deficit widened dramatically, reaching a trough of €2.7 billion

The trade balance in value terms deteriorated from −€86 million in 2015 to a worst point of −€2.66 billion before partially recovering to −€1.88 billion in 2025. The initial near-balance in 2015 gave way to an accelerating deficit after 2019, reflecting the combined impact of the COVID-19 construction boom in imports, the 2022 energy-price shock, and the longer-term trend of EU production capacity being outpaced by demand.

1.5 Türkiye and Bosnia and Herzegovina stand out among import partners

Among the EU's top seven import partners, two posted extraordinary growth rates: Türkiye's exports to the EU grew 169.8% (from €394 million to €1.06 billion), and Bosnia and Herzegovina's surged 344.9% (from €20 million to €88 million). Norway remained the EU's largest single import partner at €718 million (+51.8%), while the United Kingdom (€462 M, +18.4%), Morocco (€299 M, +29.2%), and Ukraine (€276 M, +39.0%) also grew meaningfully.

1.6 On the export side, the United Kingdom and Norway gained while Israel and Brazil receded

The EU's export geography also shifted. Exports to the United Kingdom — the EU's top extra-EU destination — grew 43.3% to €675 million, and those to Norway rose 56.7% to €280 million. By contrast, exports to Israel (−19.0%) and Brazil (−23.3%) declined. China remained a major destination at €491 million (+17.4%), though its share fluctuated.

1.7 Italy and Spain became the EU's largest importers of external minerals

Within the EU, the member states driving the import surge were predominantly Southern and Western European. Italy's imports rose 59.2% to €1.13 billion, Spain's 72.7% to €557 million, and the Netherlands' 63.7% to €738 million. Germany remained stable at €537 million (+10.5%), while Belgium was the only top importer to decline (−15.9% to €391 million). On the export side, Spain remained the EU's largest exporter at €786 million (+1.8%), while the Netherlands posted the strongest growth (+53.7% to €286 million).

2. The cement reversal: from net exporter to net importer

2.1 Cement underwent the most dramatic structural shift of any product within CN 25

The single most consequential product-level development was the complete reversal of the EU's position in cement trade (CN 2523). In 2015, the EU exported 26.8 million tonnes of cement while importing only 2.6 million tonnes — a net export surplus of 24.2 million tonnes. By 2025, exports had collapsed to 9.0 million tonnes (−66%) while imports surged to 14.2 million tonnes (+444%). The EU flipped from a massive net exporter to a net importer of 5.2 million tonnes.

2.2 Export prices doubled as volumes plummeted, signalling a quality-based repositioning

The EU's export cement price more than doubled from €52.7/t to €107.2/t (+103.3%), even as volumes fell by two-thirds. This suggests the EU's remaining cement exports are increasingly concentrated in higher-value, specialty, or lower-carbon products, while bulk standard cement production has shifted outward. The simultaneous decline in import prices (from €82.9/t to €75.5/t) is consistent with the EU sourcing cheaper bulk cement from neighbouring producers such as Türkiye, North Africa, and the Balkans.

2.3 Aggregates (CN 2517) became the EU's largest import category by volume

While cement dominated by value, aggregates — pebbles, gravel, and crushed stone (CN 2517) — were the largest import category by volume, reaching 38.8 million tonnes in 2025 (up 87% from 20.8 Mt). Import value nearly doubled from €376 million to €739 million. Aggregate export volumes, by contrast, remained relatively stable at around 8.2 million tonnes. This reflects the inherently low value-to-weight ratio of aggregates, which limits trade radius, but also growing demand from EU construction activity that outstripped domestic quarrying capacity.

2.4 Gypsum and natural sands gained on the export side, partially compensating for cement losses

Not all export segments declined. Gypsum (CN 2520) exports grew from 5.3 million to 10.0 million tonnes in volume (+88%) and from €126 million to €207 million in value (+64%). Natural sands (CN 2505) exports also rose 54% in value to €196 million. Salt (CN 2501) export values climbed 65% to €414 million, driven by price increases (from €103/t to €226/t) even as volumes fell. These partially offset the cement contraction, but could not prevent the overall decline in export volumes.

2.5 Phosphate imports (CN 2510) show a volume decline offset by sharp price increases

Natural calcium phosphates (CN 2510) — used primarily in fertilisers — saw import volumes decline from 5.5 million to 4.1 million tonnes (−26%), yet import values remained essentially flat at around €669 million. This is explained by a 37% increase in unit prices (from €119.7/t to €164.1/t), which peaked at an extraordinary €207.4/t in 2022, likely reflecting the global fertiliser price spike triggered by the Russia–Ukraine conflict.

2.6 Feldspar and fluorspar (CN 2529) imports display notable price volatility

Imports of feldspar, fluorspar, and related minerals (CN 2529) grew from 4.5 million to 6.4 million tonnes (+44%), with values rising from €283 million to €508 million (+80%). However, the price trajectory was volatile: unit prices fell from €63.5/t in 2015 to €48.4/t in 2017, spiked to €101.5/t in 2023, and settled back to €79.3/t in 2025. The 2022–2023 price peak mirrors the broader commodity shock of that period.

3. Shifting partners, rising concentration, and supply-side volatility

3.1 Trade concentration increased on both the import and export sides

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) — a standard measure of market concentration — rose for both imports and exports over the decade. Import concentration by value increased from 641 to 761 (+18.7%), while export concentration rose more sharply from 518 to 739 (+42.6%). By volume, the trends were even starker: import HHI rose from 1,183 to 1,560 (+31.9%), and export HHI from 592 to 931 (+57.2%). While all values remain well below the 2,500 threshold typically associated with a "highly concentrated" market, the upward trend suggests the EU's trade is becoming increasingly dependent on a smaller number of partners.

3.2 Türkiye became the EU's single largest import source, but with significant volatility

Türkiye's transformation from a €394 million to a €1.06 billion supplier (+169.8%) is one of the decade's defining stories. Its coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.27 on the import side indicates moderate volatility. The most volatile import partners were Belarus (CV 0.62), Algeria (0.54), Egypt (0.47), and the Russian Federation (0.39), reflecting geopolitical disruption — notably the impact of EU sanctions on Russia and Belarus following 2022. On the export side, Algeria (CV 1.34), Ghana (0.74), and Côte d'Ivoire (0.54) showed the highest volatility, consistent with the episodic nature of trade with smaller African markets.

3.3 The 2022 energy crisis triggered pronounced price shocks across multiple product lines

The system detected significant price shocks centred on 2022, the year of the Russia–Ukraine war and the European energy crisis. The most notable events were:

These shocks affected a wide range of mineral products. Cement export prices jumped from €62.5/t in 2020 to €83.2/t in 2022 and continued climbing to €107.2/t by 2025. Phosphate import prices more than doubled to €207.4/t in 2022. Feldspar and fluorspar import prices spiked to €83.4/t in 2022 and €101.5/t in 2023. While prices have partially retreated, they have not returned to pre-2020 levels in most segments, suggesting a structural repricing of energy-intensive mineral products.

3.4 EU domestic production expanded significantly in both volume and value

Despite the surge in imports, EU domestic production of CN 25 products also grew strongly. Production volumes rose 46.4% from 1.46 trillion kg to 2.13 trillion kg, while production values more than doubled (+112.2%) from €24.7 billion to €52.5 billion. The fact that value growth far outpaced quantity growth indicates significant price appreciation at the domestic production level — consistent with the energy-cost pass-through and general inflation in construction materials observed across the EU.

3.5 Net import reliance actually declined, thanks to booming domestic production

Paradoxically, even as the trade deficit widened in absolute terms, the EU's net import reliance ratio fell from 5.4% to 2.5% (−53.3%), and even briefly turned negative (−2.4% at its minimum, implying a temporary net export position relative to production). This is because domestic production value more than doubled, growing far faster than the trade deficit. In effect, the EU's expanding production base absorbed much of the growing demand, even as extra-EU imports grew in absolute terms. Export propensity also rose from 5.3% to 7.5% (+42.3%), indicating that a growing share of EU production was directed to export markets, despite the volume decline — again, the price effect.

3.6 Specialisation patterns reveal a geographically fragmented EU market

The revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) analysis for 2025 shows that EU member states' specialisation in CN 25 products varies enormously. The most specialised exporters include Croatia (RSCA 0.64), Latvia (0.60), and Cyprus (0.49), while the least specialised include Malta (−1.00), Ireland (−0.66), and Hungary (−0.63). This fragmentation reflects the inherently local nature of many industrial minerals — aggregates, limestone, and gypsum are heavy, low-value products that are typically consumed close to the point of extraction — and suggests that the EU's aggregate trade figures mask very different national realities.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in CN 25 industrial minerals over 2015–2025 tells a story of structural change rather than mere cyclical fluctuation. The most consequential development was the cement reversal: the EU transformed from a net exporter of 24 million tonnes of cement to a net importer of over 5 million tonnes, a shift that accounts for the bulk of the widening trade deficit. Simultaneously, the EU's import base broadened and grew — led by Türkiye, Norway, and several Balkan and North African suppliers — while export volumes contracted and concentrated on higher-value products.

These shifts occurred against a backdrop of rising trade concentration, significant price shocks centred on 2022, and a doubling of domestic production values. The EU's net import reliance ratio actually declined, thanks to surging domestic output, but this masks growing dependence on specific external suppliers for critical sub-products. The increasing HHI on both sides of the ledger, combined with the volatility observed among key partners, suggests that the EU's industrial minerals trade, while larger than ever, is also more exposed to supply disruptions than it was a decade ago.