Market evolution: Natural abrasives (CN 2513) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in natural abrasives (CN 2513) over the 2015–2025 period. The product group covers pumice stone, emery, natural corundum, natural garnet, and other natural abrasives (whether or not heat-treated), and is composed of two subcategories: pumice stone (251310) and emery, natural corundum, and other abrasives (251320).

Over the decade, trade expanded substantially in both directions. Import values rose by 94.2% (from €24.2 million to €47.0 million), while export values grew by 93.3% (from €10.3 million to €19.8 million). Yet this headline growth conceals a widening structural trade deficit, a fundamental reorientation of sourcing geographies, and an underlying shift in market structure. Three principal dynamics emerge from the data: a volume–value paradox that deepened the trade gap; a dramatic reshuffling of trade partners, led by China's ascent and India's decline; and a progressive diversification of import supply chains that improved the EU's structural resilience.

A Widening Trade Deficit Driven by Divergent Price Dynamics

Both imports and exports nearly doubled in value, but the deficit deepened significantly

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in natural abrasives expanded in both directions, yet the trade deficit widened from €14.0 million to €27.2 million—an increase of roughly 95%. Import and export values grew at almost identical rates (+94.2% and +93.3% respectively), but because imports started from a much larger base, the absolute gap grew substantially.

Source: General Overview — Trade

Import prices rose while export prices fell, compounding the structural deficit

The most striking feature of the decade is the divergence in unit-price trajectories. Average import prices climbed from €190.7 to €256.1 per tonne (+34.3%), reflecting growing demand for higher-value specialty abrasives and broader inflationary pressures in global commodity markets. Meanwhile, export prices declined from €35.3 to €27.8 per tonne (−21.3%), indicating that the EU's export profile increasingly consists of low-unit-value bulk materials—principally pumice stone. By 2025, the average import was worth over nine times more per tonne than the average export, underscoring a stark value asymmetry.

The EU exports cheap bulk pumice but imports expensive specialty abrasives

The product-segment breakdown reveals the structural roots of this price divergence:

EU Imports by Subcategory (2015 vs. 2025)

EU Exports by Subcategory (2015 vs. 2025)

Source: Product Segment Breakdown — Compare

The asymmetry is clear. In 2025, pumice stone accounted for 99% of export volume but only 76% of export value, at an average price of just €21.2/t. In contrast, emery and specialty abrasives represented 81% of import value (€38.0 million) despite being only 69% of import volume, at an average price of €298.8/t. The EU thus occupies a position of net volume exporter of bulk pumice and net importer of high-value specialty abrasives—a pattern that intensified over the decade.

Notably, export volumes of emery and specialty abrasives (251320) declined sharply from 22,379 tonnes to just 6,601 tonnes, even as their unit export price surged from €216.6 to €732.3 per tonne (+238%). This suggests a shift toward exporting smaller quantities of more processed, higher-value-added products, while bulk volumes are increasingly concentrated in pumice.

The Dramatic Reshaping of Trade Partnerships

China replaced India as the EU's dominant import supplier, while Australia emerged as a major new source

The most consequential geographic shift over the decade was the reconfiguration of the EU's import supply base. In 2015, India was by far the largest supplier of natural abrasives to the EU, accounting for €14.6 million—more than half of all imports. By 2025, Indian imports had collapsed to €4.5 million (−68.8%). Over the same period, Chinese imports surged from €1.4 million to €22.5 million (+1,480%), making China the dominant supplier by a wide margin.

Source: Top Partners by Value — Imports

China's rise was not merely a substitution for India. Total import value nearly doubled, meaning China effectively absorbed the lost Indian volumes and then supplied additional demand growth. Australia also emerged from near-irrelevance (€0.4 million) to become a significant source (€5.3 million), likely reflecting its role as a producer of industrial-grade garnet abrasives. Iceland, a traditional source of high-quality pumice, more than quadrupled its shipments. South Africa, though still a small supplier in absolute terms, showed the fastest proportional growth (+1,708%).

A detected supply shock in 2019 highlighted the fragility of Turkish imports

The volatility analysis identified one significant supply-shock event: a price shock in EU imports from Türkiye centred on 2019, with a −56.1% price decline and an abnormality score of 4.4. This event is consistent with the sharp depreciation of the Turkish lira during 2018–2019, which made Turkish exports significantly cheaper in euro terms. Despite this volatility, Türkiye remained a stable mid-tier supplier throughout the period (€2.7 million to €3.4 million), suggesting that the price shock did not disrupt trade volumes. More broadly, the volatility analysis shows that Australia (CV 1.77), Norway (CV 1.93), and Egypt (CV 1.87) are among the most volatile import sources, while the United States (CV 0.12) stands out as the most stable.

The United Kingdom emerged as the EU's largest extra-EU export destination following Brexit

On the export side, the most notable development was the rise of the United Kingdom as the EU's leading extra-EU export market. Since the UK was part of the EU's internal market until the end of the transition period in 2020, its trade with other member states was not classified as extra-EU trade. From 2021 onwards, however, the UK appears in the data and rapidly became the top export destination, reaching €7.3 million by 2025—a figure that accounts for more than a third of total extra-EU export value.

*The UK appears in extra-EU data from 2021. First available value reflects that year, not 2015.

Source: Top Partners by Value — Exports

Excluding the Brexit-related reclassification effect, Israel (+54%) and Switzerland (+73%) showed robust growth, while Algeria's share collapsed (−92%). Morocco emerged as a growing North African destination (+574%).

EU member states show sharply divergent trajectories in both imports and exports

Within the EU, the concentration of trade activity shifted markedly. On the import side, the Netherlands consolidated its role as the EU's primary import hub, with extra-EU imports surging from €3.3 million to €18.0 million (+452%)—accounting for 38% of total EU imports by 2025. This likely reflects the Netherlands' position as a major logistics gateway (Rotterdam) with significant re-distribution to other member states. Sweden also grew strongly (€2.1 million to €4.9 million, +128%), while Germany, once the largest importer, saw its share decline from €4.0 million to €2.2 million (−46%).

On the export side, Greece emerged as the EU's dominant exporter, growing from €4.4 million to €13.3 million (+199%)—likely driven by its substantial pumice deposits (notably from Santorini and other Aegean volcanic sources). Italy also more than doubled its exports (€0.6 million to €1.4 million, +109%), while Poland's exports collapsed from €1.0 million to €0.3 million (−74%), and Germany's exports declined modestly (−18%).

Source: Top Reporters by Value

Greece's dominance in exports, combined with an RCA of 10.4 and an RSCA of 0.82, makes it by far the most specialised EU exporter in this product group—well ahead of Sweden (RCA 6.0) and the Netherlands (RCA 3.1).

Structural Diversification and Declining Import Vulnerability

Import supply chains diversified significantly while export markets became more concentrated

One of the clearest structural trends over the decade was the diversification of the EU's import base. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value declined from 3,919 to 2,762 (−29.5%), moving from a highly concentrated structure toward moderate concentration. In volume terms, the decline was even steeper (from 3,807 to 2,340, −38.5%). This reflects the simultaneous rise of China, Australia, and Iceland, which collectively reduced the EU's dependence on any single supplier.

By contrast, export concentration by value increased from an HHI of 1,387 to 2,137 (+54.1%), driven by the growing weight of the United Kingdom and Greece as export destinations. In volume terms, export concentration remained broadly stable (−3.6%). The divergence between value and volume HHI for exports suggests that higher-value export flows are increasingly channelled through a smaller number of key partners, even as bulk pumice exports remain more widely distributed.

Domestic production grew robustly in value, underpinning the EU's self-sufficiency

EU domestic production expanded meaningfully over the period. Output rose from 1.60 billion kg (1.60 million tonnes) to 1.95 billion kg (+21.5%), while production value grew much faster, from €20.4 million to €37.7 million (+84.2%). The near-quadrupling of the unit value of domestic production—relative to its volume growth—mirrors the broader trend of rising prices observed in both import and export markets, and suggests that EU producers are increasingly focused on higher-value abrasive products.

Production remained substantially larger than trade flows in volumetric terms: at 1.95 million tonnes, EU output dwarfed the 184,000 tonnes imported and 713,000 tonnes exported. This indicates that the bulk of the EU's natural abrasive consumption is met by domestic supply, with external trade playing a supplementary—albeit strategically important—role for specific specialty segments.

All key vulnerability indicators improved, signalling greater structural resilience

Across the three principal vulnerability metrics, the EU's position improved between 2015 and 2025:

Net import reliance—the share of domestic consumption met by imports—fell from 50.2% to 44.8%, meaning the EU became slightly less dependent on external supply in net terms, despite the absolute value of imports growing. Trade intensity, which captures the overall openness of the market, declined from 90.1% to 77.8%, suggesting that a growing share of consumption is met by domestic production. Export propensity, measuring the share of domestic output exported, dropped most sharply from 72.8% to 48.9%, indicating that the EU retained a larger share of its production for domestic use.

These three improvements together paint a picture of a market that, while still significantly engaged in international trade, has become structurally more self-reliant over the decade.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in natural abrasives (CN 2513) between 2015 and 2025 was characterised by robust nominal growth that masked profound structural shifts. The trade deficit nearly doubled to €27.2 million, driven not by declining competitiveness but by the EU's increasing appetite for high-value specialty abrasives—emery, natural corundum, and garnet—whose import prices rose by over 40% in the 251320 subcategory. In parallel, the EU consolidated its position as a bulk pumice exporter, with export volumes more than doubling but at declining average prices.

The geographic landscape was fundamentally reshaped. China's share of EU imports surged from 6% to 48%, displacing India as the dominant supplier and reflecting broader patterns of Chinese industrial mineral dominance. On the export side, the post-Brexit emergence of the United Kingdom as the EU's largest extra-EU market, alongside Greece's consolidation as the bloc's export champion, redrew the map of outward trade flows.

Despite these shifts, the EU's structural position improved on most resilience metrics. Import supply chains diversified, net import reliance declined, and domestic production grew in both volume and value. The principal risk going forward lies not in overall supply concentration—which has decreased—but in the EU's growing dependence on a single supplier, China, for its high-value specialty abrasive imports, and in the concentration of export value flows toward a small number of destinations.