Market evolution: Refractory clays and minerals (CN 2508) — 2015–2025

Introduction

CN 2508 is a bundling heading that groups six sub-products — bentonite, fireclay, other non-kaolinic clays, andalusite/kyanite/sillimanite, mullite, and chamotte or dinas earths — all of which are critical inputs for the refractory, foundry, ceramics, and construction industries. Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's external trade in these products underwent a profound transformation: import values rose nearly 60%, unit prices surged across nearly every segment, and the geographic map of supply was redrawn by geopolitical disruption and shifting competitive dynamics. At the same time, EU domestic production more than tripled, and the bloc's export propensity rose from 14.0% to 21.6%, even as trade intensity climbed from 44.9% to 52.7%.

This report examines the overall trade dynamics and widening deficit, the dramatic reorientation of the EU's supplier geography, and the structural changes in production and trade positioning across the EU.

1. A Widening Trade Deficit Fueled by Price Inflation and Import Growth

1.1 The EU's structural trade deficit has nearly doubled

The EU has been a persistent net importer of CN 2508 products throughout the period. According to the overall trade data, the trade balance deteriorated from -€180.8 million in 2015 to -€334.8 million in 2025 — an 85.2% widening. This reflects the combined impact of much faster import growth (+59.7% in value, from €300.3 million to €479.7 million) relative to export growth (+21.2% in value, from €119.5 million to €144.8 million). The deficit reached its worst point at approximately -€369.3 million around the 2022 commodity price peak, before partially recovering.

Despite this deterioration in absolute terms, net import reliance remained broadly stable: it started at 29.6%, ended at 30.6%, and fluctuated within a range of 23.5% to 35.1%. This suggests that the EU's domestic consumption base expanded roughly in line with imports, rather than becoming structurally more dependent on foreign supply.

1.2 Price inflation amplified the value increase well beyond volume growth

A striking feature of the period is the persistent divergence between volume and value trends. On the import side, quantities grew by a more modest 23.5% (from 2.76 million tonnes to 3.40 million tonnes), while the average import price rose by 29.3% (from €109/t to €141/t). On the export side, the divergence was even more pronounced: volumes actually declined by 14.5% (from 468,496 t to 400,603 t), yet values still rose by 21.2% because export prices surged by 41.7% (from €255/t to €361/t). The EU thus shipped fewer tonnes abroad but earned substantially more per unit, pointing to general cost inflation across the sector and possibly a compositional shift toward higher-value products.

1.3 The 2022 energy shock left a lasting mark

Import values and quantities peaked around 2022, reaching €519.2 million and 4.33 million tonnes respectively — both the maximum values observed in the dataset. This spike aligns with the post-COVID commodity price surge and the energy cost shock triggered by the Russia–Ukraine conflict, which inflated both processing costs (calcining, sintering of refractory materials) and raw material prices. By 2025, import values had receded to €479.7 million but remained substantially above pre-shock levels, indicating only a partial price correction.

1.4 The product composition of trade has shifted substantially

The segment-level data reveals that the price surge and volume changes were far from uniform across sub-products. The following table summarises import dynamics:

Bentonite emerged as the dominant growth category: its import volumes nearly doubled (+92.8%), and its value more than doubled (+136.6%), making it the single largest import item by value in 2025 (36.6% of total imports), up from 24.7% in 2015. This likely reflects growing demand from environmental applications (landfill liners, water treatment), drilling fluids, and foundry use.

Fireclay experienced a dramatic volume collapse: imports peaked at 1.86 million tonnes in 2021, then plunged by 68% to just 599,175 tonnes in 2023, recovering only partially to 687,214 tonnes in 2025. Meanwhile, fireclay prices — stable at €57–62/t for 2015–2021 — more than doubled to €119/t by 2025. This pattern is consistent with the disruption of Ukrainian fireclay supply chains following the 2022 invasion, as Ukraine's Donbas region was a major source of fire-grade clays.

Andalusite, kyanite and sillimanite — high-alumina refractory minerals — saw import volumes halve (from 131,377 t to 70,395 t) while prices nearly doubled (from €301/t to €544/t), resulting in a roughly stable import value of around €38–39 million. Mullite imports fell even steeper in volume (-58.1%), with its value decline cushioned by a 52.5% price increase.

On the export side, the composition also shifted. Other clays (250840) remained the dominant export product (46.0% → 47.8% of export value), while chamotte/dinas earths export volumes collapsed by 64.2% (from 65,226 t to 23,370 t), and mullite exports fell by 32.4%.

2. Geographic Reorientation: The Rise of Türkiye and Supplier Diversification

2.1 Türkiye has become the EU's dominant external supplier

The most dramatic geographic shift in CN 2508 trade has been the rise of Türkiye as the EU's primary non-EU supplier. Turkish exports to the EU surged from €25.8 million in 2015 to €137.7 million in 2025 — an increase of 433.2%. At its peak (likely around 2023–2024), Turkish supply reached €185.1 million. By 2025, Türkiye had clearly overtaken Ukraine as the single largest non-EU source of CN 2508 products by value.

This growth likely reflects a combination of factors: Türkiye's abundant reserves of bentonite and other industrial clays, its geographical proximity to the EU, competitive pricing, and — critically — its role as a substitute supplier as Ukrainian exports were disrupted by the war.

2.2 Ukraine's position has eroded amid geopolitical disruption

In 2015, Ukraine was the EU's largest non-EU supplier of CN 2508 products at €97.8 million. By 2025, this had fallen to €82.1 million (-16.1%), and at its lowest point Ukraine supplied just €42.8 million — less than half of its 2015 level. The conflict that began in February 2022 severely disrupted Ukraine's clay and mineral extraction and export infrastructure, particularly in the Donbas region, home to major fireclay and chamotte production. The volatility of Ukrainian supply is reflected in a coefficient of variation of 0.47, among the highest of the EU's major suppliers.

2.3 Other emerging suppliers have gained significant ground

Beyond Türkiye, several other suppliers expanded their EU market share significantly:

India stands out: from under €10 million to nearly €48 million, a 398% increase, making it a major supplier of refractory-grade clays and minerals. China more than doubled its exports to the EU, while the United States — a historically important and stable supplier (CV of only 0.15) — maintained its position with moderate price-driven growth.

2.4 Import concentration has declined, reflecting broader sourcing

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value decreased from 1,677 to 1,561 (-6.9%), moving from moderate to low-moderate concentration. The volume-based HHI fell far more dramatically, from 3,919 to 2,075 (-47.1%), indicating a substantial diversification of supply sources by tonnage. This is a structurally positive development for supply security: while a few large suppliers still dominate in value terms, the proliferation of smaller-volume sources reduces dependence on any single origin.

On the export side, concentration remained low (HHI of 644 → 685 by value), reflecting the EU's diversified base of destination markets led by the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Algeria, China, and Egypt.

2.5 Price volatility and supply shocks are unevenly distributed

The coefficient of variation (CV) of import values reveals that volatility is concentrated among smaller or more specialised suppliers. Among major import partners, Switzerland (CV 1.64), India (CV 0.77), and Türkiye (CV 0.58) show the highest volatility, while the United States (CV 0.15), Senegal (CV 0.17), and China (CV 0.17) have been remarkably stable. For exports, the most volatile destinations include Indonesia (CV 1.79), Malaysia (CV 0.99), and the United Arab Emirates (CV 0.74).

Three notable price shock events were detected in EU exports:

While the Indonesia and Malaysia shocks affected only small trade flows and likely reflect episodic transactions rather than structural market changes, the 2023 US price shock is more significant given that the US market accounted for 6.9% of EU export value.

3. Domestic Production Expansion and the EU's Growing Export Role

3.1 EU domestic production has more than tripled

Perhaps the most striking structural change in the CN 2508 market has been the dramatic expansion of EU domestic production. Reported production volumes surged from 6.19 billion kg (~6.2 million tonnes) in 2015 to 18.06 billion kg (~18.1 million tonnes) in 2025 — an increase of 191.7%. At their peak, volumes reached 21.61 billion kg. Production values followed a similar trajectory, rising from €233.6 million to €749.7 million (+220.9%), with a peak of €798 million.

Production prices (value per unit volume) increased more modestly than trade prices, suggesting that the production surge was driven primarily by volume expansion rather than price inflation. This pattern is consistent with growing demand from the EU's steel, cement, glass, and ceramics industries, as well as expanding applications in environmental remediation and drilling.

3.2 Export propensity has risen sharply, indicating a more outward-oriented sector

The EU's export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — increased from 14.0% to 21.6%, a 54% relative increase. This is the most salient change among the vulnerability and autonomy indicators, with a salience score of 82.4 out of 100.

Simultaneously, trade intensity grew from 44.9% to 52.7%, indicating deeper global integration. Yet net import reliance remained broadly stable (29.6% → 30.6%), meaning the EU imports and exports more in absolute terms without becoming structurally more dependent on foreign supply relative to its own consumption. This is consistent with a sector that has expanded production capacity and become more competitive internationally.

3.3 Italy and the Netherlands are the main import gateways; France and Spain lead exports

Within the EU, trade in CN 2508 is concentrated among a handful of member states. The following table shows the largest importers and exporters in 2025:

Top EU importing member states:

Top EU exporting member states:

3.4 Spain and the Netherlands have undergone the most dramatic shifts

Spain stands out as the member state with the most dramatic transformation. Its imports surged by 270.3% (from €16.6 million to €61.3 million), making it the third-largest EU importer by 2025, up from a relatively minor position in 2015. Its exports also grew by 56.5% to €36.3 million, making it the largest EU exporter. Spain's Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.49 and an RCA of 2.9 confirm its strong specialisation in this sector, likely supported by significant domestic bentonite and sepiolite deposits.

The Netherlands has emerged as a major trading hub: imports grew by 86.7% (to €93.3 million) and exports surged by 157.4% (to €15.5 million), reflecting both the country's port infrastructure and a growing role in processing and re-exporting mineral products. The Netherlands also shows a positive RSCA (0.25), indicating mild specialisation.

By contrast, Germany — traditionally a major industrial consumer of refractory materials — saw its imports decline by 40.3% (from €50.5 million to €30.1 million), potentially reflecting restructuring in its steel sector, increased intra-EU sourcing, or shifts in production patterns. Germany's RSCA is not among the most specialised, and its export values were essentially flat.

Poland's export collapse (-64.0%, from €5.2 million to €1.9 million) is also noteworthy and may reflect the diversion of domestic production toward the home market or changing competitive positioning within the EU single market.

Conclusion

The EU market for CN 2508 products between 2015 and 2025 has been shaped by three converging forces: persistent price inflation that amplified the cost of imports, a dramatic reorientation of supply geography away from Ukraine and toward Türkiye and India, and a substantial expansion of domestic production capacity.

The trade deficit widened by 85% to -€335 million, but this headline figure masks an underlying dynamism. EU production tripled, export propensity rose from 14% to over 21%, and import concentration declined significantly, all pointing to a more diversified and competitive sector. The 2022 energy shock and the disruption of Ukrainian fireclay supply chains triggered structural price increases — particularly in fireclay (+109%) and refractory minerals (+81%) — that have only partially unwound.

Looking forward, the key risks centre on continued reliance on a small number of large suppliers (notably Türkiye), the geopolitical fragility of remaining Ukrainian supply, and the extent to which the EU's growing production base can substitute for imports in higher-value refractory segments such as mullite and andalusite. The data suggests a sector that is becoming simultaneously more globally integrated, more price-sensitive, and in the midst of a significant structural transition — one in which the EU's role is shifting from a predominantly consuming market to a more active producing and exporting region.