Market evolution: Gypsum and plasters (CN 2520) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the EU's external trade in Gypsum; anhydrite; plasters (CN 2520) over the period 2015–2025. The product category encompasses both raw gypsum and anhydrite (CN 252010) and processed plasters based on calcined gypsum or calcium sulphate (CN 252020). Over the decade, the EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter, with export volumes nearly doubling while imports, though growing even faster in relative terms, remained an order of magnitude smaller. The analysis below explores three main dynamics: the sustained expansion of EU exports and the widening trade surplus; the structural divergence between the raw-material and the value-added plaster segments; and the increasing geographic concentration and vulnerability of the EU's supply relationships.

1. A net-exporting sector with a widening surplus

EU exports grew strongly in both volume and value

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of CN 2520 increased from 5,347,082 t to 10,049,920 t (+88.0%), while their value rose from €126.0 million to €207.1 million (+64.4%). This expansion was broad-based across destination markets, with the United Kingdom (+139.4%), the United States (+182.8%), and Canada (+1,864.0%) all recording substantial increases in value.

Source: General Overview

The EU's net-exporter status deepened over the period

The net import reliance moved from −4.1% in 2015 to −13.7% in 2025 (negative values indicate a net-export position). This deepening surplus was driven by export volumes growing faster than imports in absolute terms, even though import volumes rose more steeply in percentage terms (+256.6% vs. +88.0%). The EU's export propensity — the share of domestic production shipped to extra-EU markets — also roughly doubled, rising from 7.9% to 18.1%, indicating that EU producers increasingly oriented their output towards foreign buyers.

EU production expanded substantially, underpinning trade growth

Domestic production volumes grew from 9.7 billion kg in 2015 to 24.0 billion kg in 2025 (+146.9%), while production value increased more modestly from €934 million to €1,085 million (+16.2%). The much faster growth in quantity than in value points to declining unit production values, consistent with the overall fall in export prices. This large production base is the fundamental factor allowing the EU to serve both its own construction sector and external markets.

2. Two distinct products on divergent price paths

Raw gypsum drove the volume surge while plasters commanded premium prices

The aggregate figures conceal a stark structural difference between the two sub-products. CN 252010 (gypsum and anhydrite) is a bulk commodity traded at low unit values, while CN 252020 (plasters) is a processed product carrying significantly higher prices.

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

Export volumes of raw gypsum nearly doubled from 4.74 million t to 9.68 million t, while the export price remained broadly stable around €12–13/t. Plasters, by contrast, saw their export volume fall from 612,000 t to 366,000 t — a decline of 40.1% — yet their export value increased from €64.9 million to €77.8 million, propelled by a doubling of the unit price from €106/t to €212/t.

Import dynamics also diverged sharply by sub-product

On the import side, raw gypsum volumes surged from 193,000 t to 859,000 t (after peaking at 1,140,000 t in 2024), with prices remaining in the €30–36/t band. Plaster imports, meanwhile, showed a different pattern: volumes rose from 110,000 t to 220,000 t, but prices collapsed from €189/t to €117/t over the decade. This suggests that the EU increasingly sourced cheaper plaster from abroad, likely putting competitive pressure on domestic plaster manufacturers.

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

The price gap between imports and exports narrowed considerably

At the aggregate level, EU export prices fell by 12.5% (from €23.56/t to €20.60/t) while import prices dropped by 42.7% (from €90.96/t to €52.15/t). The much higher import price relative to the export price reflects the larger share of higher-value plasters in the import basket compared to the overwhelmingly bulk-gypsum composition of exports. The convergence of the two price series over time is largely explained by the declining plaster import price noted above.

3. Shifting geography: concentration, shocks, and regional specialisation

Spain and the United Kingdom emerged as the dominant trade nodes

Within the EU, Spain was by far the largest exporter, with its export value more than doubling from €48.1 million to €108.1 million — accounting for over half of all extra-EU exports by 2025. Germany held second place (€34.4M → €47.7M). On the import side, the United Kingdom was the EU's largest supplier, with import values rising from €8.1 million to €13.4 million — though this partly reflects post-Brexit trade reclassification.

Source: Top reporters by value

North African and Western Balkan suppliers grew rapidly

On the import side, the most striking growth came from Morocco (€2.9M → €17.3M, +486.5%), North Macedonia (€0.5M → €3.0M, +556.4%), and Tunisia (€0.006M → €1.8M, +29,741%). These countries benefit from proximity to southern EU Member States and from abundant natural gypsum deposits. The geographic diversification of imports — away from traditional European suppliers towards the southern and eastern Mediterranean — has both improved sourcing options and introduced new dependencies.

Trade concentration increased, particularly on the export side

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports rose from 821 to 1,189 (+44.7%), while the import HHI increased from 1,684 to 1,844 (+9.5%). While both values remain below the 2,500 threshold typically associated with a "highly concentrated" market, the faster increase on the export side indicates growing reliance on a smaller number of destination markets — principally the United Kingdom, the United States, and Nigeria.

Supply shocks were concentrated in a few partner relationships

The volatility analysis reveals several notable price shocks:

• Türkiye, 2022: The most extreme event, with import prices surging +323.1% (abnormality score 3,654). This coincided with the sharp energy-cost inflation that hit Turkish industry in 2022 and the depreciation of the Turkish lira.
• Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2023: A +185.5% price spike (abnormality 251.7), also likely linked to energy costs and regional supply tightness.
• United Kingdom, 2018: A +79.4% price increase, which may reflect pre-Brexit stockpiling or exchange-rate effects following the 2016 referendum.

Among exporting partners, Ukraine (coefficient of variation 1.93), Thailand (1.50), and Tunisia (1.18) exhibited the highest import-volume volatility, indicating more fragile supply chains.

Specialisation is concentrated in a handful of Member States

The revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) analysis for 2025 shows that gypsum and plaster exports are strongly specialised in only a few Member States:

Source: Specialisation

Latvia stands out with the highest RSCA (0.825) and RCA (10.42), though its absolute contribution to EU trade is small. Germany, while by far the largest producer (36.3% of EU production), shows a more moderate specialisation index, consistent with the breadth and diversification of its industrial base. Several smaller Member States — Malta, Finland, Cyprus, Ireland, and Bulgaria — show negative RSCA values, indicating net-import specialisation.

Conclusion

The EU's gypsum and plaster sector strengthened its net-export position over 2015–2025, with export volumes nearly doubling and the trade surplus widening by 53.2% to reach €150.8 million by 2025. This growth was overwhelmingly driven by bulk gypsum (CN 252010), where the EU benefits from large-scale domestic production and cost-competitive supply to nearby markets. The processed plaster segment (CN 252020) followed a contrasting trajectory: export volumes declined while prices doubled, suggesting a move towards higher-value or more specialised applications, even as cheaper imports from North Africa and the Western Balkans entered the EU market.

Three structural risks are worth noting. First, the growing geographic concentration of exports — reflected in the rising HHI — means that disruptions in the United Kingdom or the United States would have outsized effects. Second, the increasing reliance on a few North African and Balkan suppliers introduces exposure to geopolitical and macroeconomic instability, as illustrated by the severe price shocks from Türkiye and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Third, the divergence between rapidly growing production volumes and only modestly rising production values hints at possible margin compression in the years ahead.

Overall, the sector appears commercially robust but structurally evolving: the EU is trading more, further afield, and in a context of shifting product mix and rising supplier concentration.