Market evolution: Cement (CN 2523) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in cement and cement clinkers (Combined Nomenclature code 2523) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading encompasses cement clinkers, white and grey Portland cement, aluminous cement, and other hydraulic cements. Over the decade, the EU cement sector underwent a dramatic structural transformation: the Union shifted from a comfortable net exporter with a €1.2 billion trade surplus in 2015 to a net importer with a deficit of €108 million by 2025. This reversal was driven by a simultaneous collapse in export volumes and a surge in imports, largely from Mediterranean and Black Sea neighbours. The analysis that follows dissects the key dynamics behind this shift, the geographic reorientation of trade flows, and the price and structural consequences for EU producers.

I. A Reversal of Fortunes: The EU's Shift from Net Exporter to Net Importer

The trade balance flipped from a €1.2 billion surplus to a €108 million deficit

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the complete reversal of the EU's trade balance in cement. In 2015, EU exports stood at €1.415 billion while imports were just €217 million, yielding a trade surplus of nearly €1.2 billion. By 2025, imports had ballooned to €1.075 billion — a nearly five-fold increase of +396% — while exports had contracted to €967 million (−31.7%). The result was a negative net import reliance of −0.87% in 2025, compared with +0.47% in 2015.

Export volumes fell by two-thirds while import volumes surged more than fivefold

Behind the value shifts lay even more dramatic volume dynamics. EU export quantities declined from 26.8 million tonnes in 2015 to just 9.0 million tonnes in 2025 — a contraction of 66.4%. Over the same period, import volumes surged from 2.6 million to 14.2 million tonnes (+444.7%). This divergence suggests not merely a price-driven reallocation, but a genuine structural reduction in the EU's capacity or willingness to serve external markets, alongside a rapid ramp-up in third-country supply.

Source: General Overview

EU cement production declined in volume while rising sharply in value

Domestic production data reinforces the picture of a sector under structural pressure. EU cement output (by weight) fell from 230 billion kg in 2015 to 167 billion kg in 2025 (−27.4%), reaching a trough of 162.5 billion kg in 2022 — likely influenced by the post-COVID construction slowdown and the 2022 energy crisis. Yet production value rose by 42.3%, from €13.9 billion to €19.8 billion, reflecting substantial domestic price inflation driven by rising energy costs, decarbonisation investments (e.g. carbon capture, alternative fuels), and tightening EU ETS carbon prices.

Price divergence between EU exports and imports widened, eroding competitiveness

A key mechanism underpinning the trade reversal is a widening price gap. EU export prices more than doubled, from €52.75/t to €107.19/t (+103.2%), while import prices actually declined from €82.92/t to €75.47/t (−9.0%). In 2015, imports were already 57% more expensive per tonne than exports; by 2025, imports were 30% cheaper. This convergence — and then inversion — made third-country cement increasingly competitive on the EU market while EU producers struggled to maintain export margins.

II. A Mediterranean Pivot: The Geographic Reorientation of EU Cement Trade

Imports shifted decisively toward Mediterranean and Black Sea suppliers

The surge in EU cement imports was concentrated overwhelmingly in countries bordering the Mediterranean and Black Sea. The seven largest import partners by value in 2025, as reported in the data, were:

Source: Top partners by value

Türkiye alone accounted for €437 million of the €1.075 billion in total imports in 2025, representing over 40% of all incoming cement trade by value. Ukraine, Algeria, and Egypt — all near-zero or negligible suppliers in 2015 — collectively contributed another €354 million. This geographic concentration reflects the advantage of maritime proximity, lower energy costs, and excess capacity in these producing countries.

Export losses were concentrated in African and Middle Eastern markets

On the export side, the decline was driven by near-total collapses in shipments to several traditional destination markets:

Source: Top partners by value

Algeria is a particularly telling case: it was the EU's largest single cement export market in 2015 (€212 million) but virtually disappeared as an export destination by 2025 (€680K) — even as it surged to become a major import partner. This suggests that Algeria's domestic cement industry scaled up dramatically over the decade, first reducing its need for EU imports and then creating surplus capacity for export. Similar dynamics played out in West Africa, where EU exports to Cameroon and Côte d'Ivoire collapsed by 99.7% and 98% respectively, likely reflecting increased competition from Turkish, Chinese, and local producers.

The United Kingdom became the EU's indispensable export anchor

Against the backdrop of broad export decline, the UK market grew in relative and absolute importance. Cement exports to the United Kingdom rose from €227 million to €334 million (+47.5%), making it by far the largest single destination — absorbing roughly one-third of all EU cement exports by value in 2025. The UK's reliance on EU cement supply, combined with geographic proximity and the absence of equivalent domestic capacity expansion, underpins this resilience.

Import concentration intensified while export markets became more fragmented

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports rose from 1,421 to 2,116 (+48.9%) by value, moving the import side from a moderately concentrated to a more concentrated structure. This reflects the dominance of Türkiye and a handful of Mediterranean suppliers. The export HHI also increased sharply, from 810 to 1,825 (+125.3%), as the loss of diversified African and Middle Eastern markets left EU exporters more dependent on a smaller number of destinations — principally the UK.

III. Clinker Trade as the Bellwether: Structural Shifts Across Product Segments

Cement clinker imports grew nearly sevenfold, the fastest-growing segment

A breakdown by six-digit product sub-headings reveals that cement clinkers (CN 252310) underwent the most dramatic shift on the import side. Import volumes in clinkers surged from 1.05 million tonnes in 2015 to 7.15 million tonnes in 2025, accounting for roughly half of all cement-related imports by weight. Import prices for clinkers fell from €74.55/t to €56.01/t over the period, making them the cheapest import category. This pattern is consistent with EU grinding plants sourcing cheaper semi-processed clinker from third countries — particularly Türkiye, which has substantial clinker capacity — rather than producing it domestically amid rising energy and carbon costs.

EU clinker exports collapsed by 94%, while Portland cement exports held relatively better

On the export side, cement clinkers (252310) saw the steepest decline: from 10.6 million tonnes in 2015 to just 636,127 tonnes in 2025 (−94.0%). White Portland cement exports also contracted substantially, from 1.09 million to 344,513 tonnes (−68.4%). Grey Portland cement (252329) remained the largest export category by volume, but still declined from 14.5 million to 7.35 million tonnes (−49.5%). Interestingly, exports of "other cements" (252390) actually increased in value from €52 million to €110 million (+112.6%), suggesting that niche and specialty cement products maintained stronger market positions.

Southern European member states bore the brunt of the export decline

At the member-state level, the steepest export contractions were recorded in Mediterranean countries with historically large cement sectors:

These three countries collectively lost over €394 million in export value. In contrast, Ireland (+23.7%), Croatia (+35.2%), and Denmark (+56.7%) saw export growth, suggesting a shift toward more proximate or niche destination markets.

Import surges were concentrated in Italy, Romania, Spain, and Poland

On the import receiving side, the largest absolute and percentage increases were:

Source: Top reporters by value

Spain is a notable case: it was the EU's largest cement exporter in 2015 (€309 million) and simultaneously saw its imports explode from €9 million to €109 million — a reversal that reflects both the competitiveness challenge facing EU producers and the growing reliance on third-country clinker and cement.

Conclusion

The EU cement market underwent a fundamental structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. The Union's traditional position as a net exporter eroded steadily and then reversed decisively, driven by the interplay of rising domestic production costs (energy, carbon), declining competitiveness relative to Mediterranean and Black Sea suppliers, and the collapse of several key African and Middle Eastern export markets that developed their own capacity.

The geographic reorientation of trade flows was stark: imports surged from nearby producers — principally Türkiye, Ukraine, Algeria, Tunisia, and Egypt — while exports contracted to all regions except the United Kingdom, which emerged as the EU's indispensable single market. Cement clinker, the semi-processed precursor, was the fastest-growing import category, suggesting that EU grinding facilities increasingly relied on imported feedstock rather than domestic kiln production.

For EU policymakers, these trends raise questions about industrial resilience in a heavy, low-value, energy-intensive sector. The rising concentration of import supply, combined with the EU's growing dependence on a handful of third-country suppliers, introduces new vulnerability. At the same time, the doubling of export unit prices and the shift toward higher-value specialty cements may signal an ongoing transition toward a more premium, niche-oriented EU cement export profile — even as the bulk of the market increasingly turns to imports to meet demand.