Market evolution: Cement clinkers (CN 252310) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Cement clinkers are the intermediate product obtained by heating limestone and clay in a kiln at very high temperatures; they are subsequently ground to produce finished cement. As a bulk commodity with low unit value and high transport weight, clinker trade is heavily influenced by logistics costs, energy prices, and regional construction cycles. Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's external trade in clinkers (CN 252310) underwent a dramatic structural transformation: the bloc shifted from being a substantial net exporter to a significant net importer, with export volumes declining by 94.0% and import volumes surging by 579.7%. This report examines the principal dynamics behind this reversal, the geographic reorientation of trade partners, and the implications for EU industrial capacity and supply security.

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1. A Structural Trade Reversal: From Net Exporter to Net Importer

Export volumes and values collapsed over the decade

In 2015, the EU exported approximately 10.6 million tonnes of cement clinkers to non-EU countries, valued at roughly €456 million. By 2025, these figures had fallen to approximately 636,000 tonnes and €89 million respectively — declines of 94.0% in volume and 80.5% in value. The fact that the value decline was smaller than the volume decline reflects a sharp increase in the unit export price, which rose from about €43/t to approximately €140/t (+225.8%). This price escalation likely reflects the fact that the remaining exports are niche, higher-value shipments rather than bulk volumes.

Imports surged in both volume and value

Over the same period, EU imports of cement clinkers rose from approximately 1.05 million tonnes (€78 million) to about 7.15 million tonnes (€400 million) — increases of 579.7% in quantity and 410.6% in value. Unlike exports, the import unit price actually declined from roughly €75/t to €56/t (−24.9%), suggesting that EU buyers increasingly sourced from lower-cost producers, particularly in North Africa and Türkiye.

The trade balance swung from a €377 million surplus to a €311 million deficit

The combined effect of collapsing exports and surging imports was a complete inversion of the EU's trade balance. In 2015, the EU enjoyed a surplus of approximately €377 million in clinker trade with non-EU partners. By 2025, this had turned into a deficit of roughly €311 million. The net import reliance, which at its minimum reached −112.5% (indicating the EU was exporting more than its apparent domestic consumption), ended at 32.3%. This swing reflects both the contraction of domestic clinker production and the reorientation of EU cement supply chains toward external sources.

2. Geographic Reorientation of Trade Partners

Mediterranean and Turkish suppliers became dominant import sources

The import side was reshaped by the rapid rise of suppliers from the southern and eastern Mediterranean basin. Türkiye saw its exports to the EU grow from €24 million to €180 million (+643.1%), making it by far the largest single supplier. Algeria expanded from €9 million to €82 million (+763.6%), while Egypt emerged as a major source, growing from virtually zero to €58 million. Morocco also became a significant supplier, rising from negligible levels to €11 million.

Colombia, once a notable supplier, saw its exports to the EU decline by 59.2%, while Viet Nam's trade effectively ceased entirely. The overall pattern reveals a clear geographic consolidation toward neighbouring low-cost producers with strong kiln capacity and logistical proximity to European ports.

Top import partners by value

West African markets were largely lost as export destinations

On the export side, the EU's traditional markets in West Africa experienced dramatic declines. Exports to Cameroon fell from €32 million to €1.3 million (−96.0%), to Côte d'Ivoire from €27 million to €2.2 million (−91.8%), and to Ghana from €43 million to €2.6 million (−94.0%). Israel, once the single largest destination at €55 million, collapsed to €425,000 (−99.2%). Exports to Algeria and Guinea also declined by over 99% and 70% respectively. The United Kingdom, the only major non-African export destination, saw a more moderate decline from €30 million to €16 million (−46.7%).

This collapse likely reflects the development of domestic clinker capacity in several African countries, the competitive displacement by Turkish and Asian producers, and the contraction of EU clinker production itself, which reduced available export surpluses.

Top export partners by value

Market concentration increased on both sides

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value rose modestly from 2,425 to 2,702 (+11.4%), indicating that import sources became somewhat more concentrated — largely due to the growing dominance of Türkiye. More strikingly, the export concentration HHI surged from 630 to 3,002 (+376.5%). In 2015, EU exports were spread across many destinations (HHI of 630 indicates a highly fragmented, competitive market); by 2025, the few remaining export flows were heavily concentrated, reflecting the near-total withdrawal from most former markets.

3. Domestic Production Decline and Shifting Member-State Roles

EU clinker production contracted by 40% in volume but recovered in value

According to production data, EU clinker production fell from approximately 10.8 billion kilograms (10.8 million tonnes) to about 6.5 billion kilograms (6.5 million tonnes), a decline of 40.0%. Yet production value actually rose from €315 million to €440 million (+39.5%), implying a significant increase in the unit value of domestically produced clinker. The maximum production volume reached during the period was approximately 19.6 billion kilograms, while the peak value was €733 million, suggesting that the period saw both a construction-cycle peak and subsequent contraction.

The divergence between volume and value trends is consistent with the broader European context: rising energy costs (particularly natural gas for kilns), decarbonisation pressures, and the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) have increased production costs, while the closure of older, less efficient plants has reduced overall capacity.

Italy, Spain, Romania, and Greece became the largest EU importers

The geographic pattern of EU member-state imports was completely reshaped. Italy's imports surged from €4.7 million to €114.6 million (+2,321.7%), making it the largest EU importer by 2025. Spain's imports grew from €2.2 million to €70.3 million (+3,159.2%), Romania's from €1.6 million to €41.5 million (+2,551.6%), and Greece's from €3.0 million to €22.1 million (+645.1%). France remained a consistently large importer, growing from €48 million to €81 million (+67.2%).

Former major EU exporters saw their positions collapse

Conversely, the member states that had been the EU's main clinker exporters saw their positions erode dramatically. Spain fell from €167 million to €21 million (−87.5%), Greece from €79 million to €1.1 million (−98.6%), Portugal from €52 million to virtually zero (−100.0%), Cyprus from €49 million to €55,000 (−99.9%), and Croatia from €20 million to €130,000 (−99.4%). France was the only major exporter that maintained a relatively stable position, declining just 13.0% from €55 million to €48 million.

Specialisation data confirms a divergence between producer and consumer member states

The revealed comparative advantage (RCA) analysis for 2025 shows that Spain (RCA 5.14), Finland (6.44), and Ireland (4.77) retain significant specialisation in clinker production, while Greece (RCA 0.0006), Luxembourg (0.0007), and Romania (0.0024) are at the opposite end of the spectrum, relying almost entirely on imports. The fact that Spain remains highly specialised in production while simultaneously becoming a massive importer suggests a dual dynamic: Spanish kilns continue to produce for export markets, but domestic demand increasingly draws on external supply — likely from nearby North African and Turkish producers offering lower prices.

Conclusion

The 2015–2025 period marks a fundamental restructuring of the EU's position in global cement clinker trade. A decade ago, the EU was a major net exporter with a diversified portfolio of West African, Middle Eastern, and European destinations. By 2025, it had become a substantial net importer, sourcing heavily from Türkiye and the Maghreb countries.

This transformation was driven by three reinforcing forces: (1) a sharp contraction in domestic clinker production (−40% in volume), linked to energy cost pressures, decarbonisation policies, and the closure of ageing capacity; (2) the emergence of competitive clinker producers in Türkiye, Algeria, Egypt, and Morocco, who offer lower production costs and geographic proximity to EU ports; and (3) the loss of traditional export markets in West Africa, where local capacity has expanded.

The rise in export unit prices (from €43/t to €140/t) alongside declining import prices (from €75/t to €56/t) underscores a growing cost differential that further incentivises the shift toward imports. Meanwhile, the dramatic increase in export market concentration (HHI from 630 to 3,002) signals that the EU's remaining clinker exports are increasingly niche and narrowly directed.

For policymakers, these trends carry implications for supply security, industrial employment, and climate ambition. The growing import dependence — while economically rational in the short run — may expose the EU's construction sector to external supply disruptions and geopolitical risk, particularly as import sources are themselves concentrated in a small number of Mediterranean states.