Market evolution: Vermiculite and perlite minerals (CN 2530) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade evolution of commodities under Combined Nomenclature code 2530 ("Vermiculite, perlite and other mineral substances, n.e.s.") for the European Union with non-EU partners between 2015 and 2025. The period was characterised by a significant contraction in traded volumes alongside a general rise in unit values, leading to notable shifts in trade balances and partner relationships. The following sections detail these primary dynamics, their market structure implications, and the associated volatility and vulnerabilities.

1. A Market of Declining Volumes and Escalating Unit Values

The overall trajectory for EU trade in CN 2530 minerals over the past decade is defined by a pronounced decrease in physical quantities exchanged, contrasted with a substantial increase in the average value per unit.

1.1. A Contraction in Traded Volumes

Both EU imports and exports in tonnes fell considerably between the first and last year of the dataset. The volume of imports decreased by 29.9%, from 3,875,273 tonnes in 2015 to 2,715,004 tonnes in 2025. Similarly, exports declined by 25.2%, from 1,139,432 tonnes to 852,482 tonnes over the same period. This widespread volume decline is further confirmed by a 12.0% drop in the EU's domestic production quantity between the first and last available year.

1.2. Strong Price Inflation Across Trade Flows

Despite lower volumes, the value of trade remained more resilient, driven by sharply rising unit prices. The average import price increased by 49.0% from €48.6/t in 2015 to €72.5/t in 2025. The export price saw an even steeper rise of 27.9%, climbing from €214.7/t to €274.6/t. This price inflation was particularly pronounced between 2020 and 2022, coinciding with global supply chain disruptions.

1.3. A Narrowing Trade Surplus

The EU has traditionally maintained a positive trade balance in value for this product group. However, the balance shrank significantly over the period, falling by 33.6% from €56.2 million in 2015 to €37.3 million in 2025. The balance even turned negative in 2022, reaching a deficit of €45.0 million, before recovering somewhat in subsequent years. This reflects the fact that the surge in import values (driven by higher prices) outpaced the increase in export values.

2. Reconfiguration of Key Trade Partners and Market Concentration

The landscape of major trading partners underwent significant changes, while market concentration indices reveal a fragmented export sector and a moderately concentrated import market.

2.1. Divergent Trajectories Among Top Import Partners

The list of the EU's top import partners shows starkly different trends:

This reconfiguration points to a shift away from traditional suppliers like Norway, South Africa, and Australia towards continental and Asian sources.

2.2. Shifting Export Destinations and Market Fragmentation

EU exports also saw major shifts. Exports to Malaysia and Indonesia collapsed by over 95%, while shipments to Switzerland doubled. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports by value increased by 20.9% to 632 in 2025, but remains below 1500, indicating a market that is becoming somewhat more concentrated but is still considered unconcentrated and competitive. For imports, the HHI by value rose to 1208, indicating moderate concentration, up 8.9% from 2015.

2.3. Internal EU Market: Specialisation and Production Shifts

Within the EU, production and trade are concentrated in specific Member States. In 2025, the most specialised exporters included Slovenia, Greece, and Slovakia. Meanwhile, the list of top EU importers saw the Netherlands (+245.9%) and Spain (+122.9%) gain prominence, while Belgium (-59.4%) saw a sharp decline in its reported import value.

3. Volatility, Supply Shocks, and Strategic Adjustments

The trade data reveals significant price volatility with key partners and evidence of discrete supply shocks, alongside a structural decline in the EU's net import reliance.

3.1. High Volatility with Geographically Distant Suppliers

A measure of trade value volatility (Coefficient of Variation) highlights the most unstable partnerships. For imports, relations with the United Kingdom (CV 0.73), Norway (CV 0.66), and the United States (CV 0.68) were highly volatile. For exports, links to China (CV 1.25) and Lebanon (CV 1.23) showed extreme instability. This suggests that trade with geographically and strategically distant partners is more prone to disruption.

3.2. Detected Price Shocks in Export Markets

The analysis identified several shock events, primarily affecting exports. The most severe was a price shock in exports to Lebanon in 2019, with a 298% price shift. Similar, though smaller, price shocks were detected for exports to Indonesia (2019) and Malaysia (2022). These events, while impactful in percentage terms, often involved small value shares, indicating they affected niche segments rather than the core market.

3.3. Declining Net Import Reliance Amidst Persistent Export Fragmentation

The EU's net import reliance for CN 2530 decreased by 30.5%, from 23.1% in 2015 to 16.0% in 2025. This improved position is partly due to the parallel decline in both import and export volumes, but suggests a slight reduction in strategic vulnerability. However, the export market remains fragmented (low HHI), meaning EU exporters are dependent on a wide array of smaller markets, which can increase exposure to localised economic or political disturbances.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU market for CN 2530 minerals underwent a fundamental transformation. It evolved from a higher-volume, lower-price environment to one of lower volumes and significantly higher unit values, compressing the traditional trade surplus. Concurrently, the map of trade partners was redrawn, with traditional suppliers like Australia and South Africa yielding ground to Russia and China on the import side, and with EU export flows becoming more concentrated in certain markets like the US and Switzerland while fragmenting in others. While the EU's net import reliance has modestly improved, the persistent volatility and past shocks in export markets highlight ongoing risks. The key trend appears to be a market prioritising value over volume, navigating higher input costs, and adapting to a new geography of supply and demand.