Market evolution: Fertilisers (CN 31) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade performance of the European Union in fertilisers (Combined Nomenclature code 31) over the period 2015 to 2025. The sector, encompassing nitrogenous, phosphatic, potassic, and mixed fertilisers, is fundamental to European agriculture and has been subject to significant global market volatility. By examining import and export flows, prices, partner concentration, and geopolitical shifts, we identify the key dynamics that have reshaped the EU's position from a near-balanced trader to a structurally deficit market, culminating in a period of extreme price shock and supply chain realignment.

The Shift from Trade Balance to Structural Deficit

Over the decade, the EU's trade in fertilisers evolved from a near-equilibrium position to a significant net deficit. This shift was primarily driven by import volumes growing faster than export volumes, a trend that accelerated after 2020.

Imports Outpaced Exports in Both Volume and Value Growth

While both imports and exports grew in value over the period, the growth in imports was substantially more pronounced, fundamentally altering the trade balance.

As shown in the General Overview, the EU's net import reliance (a measure of the trade balance relative to production and trade) increased from 5.0% in 2015 to 6.7% in 2025, confirming a growing dependency on external supply.

Price Increases Amplified the Value Deficit

The value swing was exacerbated by strong price inflation, particularly after 2021. The unit value (price per tonne) of both imports and exports surged, but the price effect on the larger volume of imports contributed heavily to the widened deficit.

The sharper price increase for exports suggests the EU may have shifted its export basket towards higher-value products or successfully passed on cost increases to international buyers. Nevertheless, this was insufficient to offset the massive import bill growth.

The 2022 Price Shock and its Geopolitical Drivers

The year 2022 stands out as a period of extreme disruption, characterised by a historic price spike and a sharp reconfiguration of trade partners, directly linked to geopolitical conflict.

Prices Reached Unprecedented Levels in 2022

The data reveals a dramatic, synchronized price shock across all major product segments in 2022. This was a systemic event, not isolated to a single fertiliser type.

This Volatility & Shocks data confirms the shock's origins. The leading detected event was a price shock for imports from Canada in 2022, with an abnormality score of 9.8 and a year-on-year price shift of 141.2%. Similar severe price shocks were detected for imports from Israel (+129.6%) and exports to Mexico (+86.0%) in the same year.

The Conflict-Driven Collapse of Belarusian Supply

The most significant geopolitical shift was the near-total elimination of fertiliser imports from Belarus. Belarus was the EU's fourth-largest supplier in 2015 (value: €465 million) but had become marginal by 2025 (value: €28 million), a decline of -93.9%.

This collapse, visible in the top partners data, is a direct consequence of EU sanctions. The high coefficient of variation (0.67) for Belarusian imports over the period underscores the volatility introduced by this political disruption. Concurrently, the EU's reliance on Russian supply, while still substantial, showed more modest growth (+13.6%), suggesting a partial but incomplete pivot away from the region.

Geopolitical Realignment and Market Structure Evolution

In response to the shock and sanctions, the EU's fertiliser trade geography underwent a significant realignment, with North African nations and Ukraine emerging as crucial partners. Domestic production also rose, altering the market's internal structure.

The Rise of North Africa and Ukraine as Strategic Partners

The EU aggressively diversified its import base and export destinations.

Egypt and Morocco became the EU's second and third-largest suppliers, respectively. On the export side, Ukraine transformed from a minor destination to the fourth-largest market for EU fertilisers, a growth partly reflecting Ukraine's own agricultural needs and logistical rerouting.

Increased Integration and Shifting Specialisation within the EU

The EU's trade intensity in fertilisers—the combined share of imports and exports in the market—rose from 29.2% in 2015 to 44.2% in 2025, indicating the market became more internationally integrated. This is detailed in the Autonomy & Vulnerability analysis.

Domestically, production volumes (in kg) grew by 50.6% and production value by 139.6%, as shown in the Market Structure data. This growth was unevenly distributed. Specialisation analysis reveals that Eastern and Baltic members like Lithuania (RSCA: 0.80) and Finland (RSCA: 0.54) developed strong comparative advantages in fertiliser production and export, while Western and Northern members like Ireland and Denmark remained heavily import-oriented.

Conclusion

The EU fertiliser market between 2015 and 2025 has been transformed by geopolitical and economic forces. The period began with a balanced trade position and ended with a structural deficit, as import growth consistently outpaced export growth. This trend was violently accelerated by the 2022 price shock, a systemic crisis linked to the conflict in Ukraine and the subsequent sanctioning of Belarus and Russia. The shock triggered a swift and dramatic realignment of trade flows, with the EU pivoting towards North African suppliers and Ukrainian export markets. Concurrently, intra-EU specialisation intensified, with certain member states bolstering their production capacity. The resulting market is more price-volatile, more dependent on a reconfigured set of foreign partners, and marked by a wider and potentially more vulnerable trade deficit.