Market evolution: Soaps waxes and polishes (CN 34) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU external trade in products covered by Combined Nomenclature chapter 34 (Soaps, organic surface-active agents, washing preparations, lubricating preparations, artificial waxes, prepared waxes, polishing or scouring preparations, candles and similar articles, modelling pastes, ‘dental waxes’ and dental preparations with a basis of plaster) between 2015 and 2025. The period is characterised by robust growth, structural shifts in trading partners, and increasing sectoral specialisation within the EU. The full dashboard overview provides the foundational data for this analysis.

1. Strong value growth led by price increases and a widening trade surplus

The EU's external trade in CN 34 products has expanded significantly over the decade, with growth in trade values outpacing growth in physical volumes. The EU has maintained and strengthened its position as a net exporter throughout the period, with the trade surplus growing by over 40%.

1.1. Export value growth significantly outpaces quantity growth

EU exports of CN 34 products grew by 45.1% in value terms between 2015 and 2025, rising from €8.41 billion to €12.21 billion. However, the corresponding quantity exported increased by a mere 0.8% over the same period. This indicates that the value growth is almost entirely driven by rising unit prices, which increased by 44.0%. This price dynamic suggests a shift towards higher-value products, increased production costs, or inflationary pressures within the sector. The peak export value was recorded in 2022 at €12.59 billion.

Table 1: EU Trade Balance in CN 34 Products (€ billions)

1.2. Import growth is driven by both volume and price increases

Unlike exports, EU imports of CN 34 products grew in both value and volume. Import value rose by 49.4% to €5.16 billion, while imported quantity increased by 24.6% to 2.03 million tonnes. Unit import prices saw a more modest rise of 19.9% compared to export prices. This combined volume-price growth highlights sustained external demand for these goods from EU industries and consumers.

1.3. Domestic production capacity expanded substantially

The EU's internal production of CN 34 goods grew robustly. Production quantity increased by 44.6% from 14.35 billion kg to 20.76 billion kg, while production value surged by 73.2% to €29.08 billion. This growth in domestic output, particularly in value terms, aligns with the strong export performance and points to an increasingly integrated and competitive EU industry.

2. Divergent shifts in major trading partners and changing import geography

The landscape of the EU's key trading partners for CN 34 products has evolved notably. While traditional partners like the United Kingdom and the United States remain critical, there has been a significant rise in imports from neighbouring and emerging economies, and a dramatic reorientation of EU exports away from the Russian Federation.

2.1. The United Kingdom remains the top partner, while Serbia and China surge in imports

The United Kingdom is the EU's largest single-country trade partner for both exports (€2.34 billion in 2025) and imports (€1.37 billion). However, the most dynamic growth in import sources has come from elsewhere:

• Serbia saw the most dramatic increase in exports to the EU, with import values soaring by 680.8% to €440 million, making it the sixth-largest source.
• China more than doubled its exports to the EU, increasing by 184.8% to €833 million.
• Türkiye also saw a strong 192.2% rise to €368 million.

Table 2: Top EU Import Sources for CN 34 (€ billions)

2.2. EU exports to the United States and Ukraine grew strongly, while flows to Russia collapsed

The United States became a much larger market for EU exports, with values nearly doubling (+99.4%) to €1.06 billion. Exports to Ukraine also grew significantly (+173.5% to €340 million), likely reflecting market integration and increased demand.

Conversely, exports to the Russian Federation experienced a severe decline of 57.1%, falling from €635 million to €272 million. This collapse, concentrated in the later years of the period, is a clear geopolitical shock likely linked to sanctions and trade restrictions following 2022.

2.3. The largest EU member states dominate trade, with Italy and Poland showing exceptional export growth

Among EU member states, Germany is the undisputed leader, accounting for €3.83 billion in exports (a 25.7% increase) and €1.03 billion in imports. However, several other members showed remarkable export dynamism:

• Italy saw its exports more than double (+103.6%) to €1.32 billion.
• Poland also more than doubled its exports (+111.5%) to €945 million, becoming a major regional exporter.

These trends indicate a broadening and deepening of production capacity across the EU, not just in its largest economies.

3. Increased export specialisation and reduced market concentration enhance resilience

The EU's trade in CN 34 has become more specialised and, on the import side, less concentrated. This structural evolution suggests an industry that is finding comparative advantages while mitigating risks of over-reliance on single suppliers.

3.1. Several EU states exhibit high revealed comparative advantage

The analysis of specialisation in 2025 reveals that Luxembourg, Poland, Belgium, Denmark, and Greece have the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) in this product category. This indicates that these countries export CN 34 goods in a proportion significantly larger than the EU average, pointing to established competitive niches.

3.2. Import concentration has fallen significantly, reducing dependency risks

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import partners fell by 33.8% from 2,192 to 1,451. This substantial decline indicates a diversification of the EU's import sources. While the UK remains a major partner, the rise of Serbia, China, and Türkiye means the EU is less dependent on any single country for its supplies, enhancing supply chain resilience. Export concentration also decreased, but more modestly (-8.6%).

3.3. The product mix is dominated by surface-active agents and soaps

A segment breakdown of trade shows that two sub-sectors account for the bulk of activity:

• CN 3402 (Organic surface-active agents, washing preparations) is the largest segment, representing over half of both EU imports (€2.51 bn) and exports (€6.34 bn) in value by 2025.
• CN 3401 (Soap and similar products) is the second-largest, with imports of €0.98 bn and exports of €1.94 bn.

Other notable segments include lubricants (3403), artificial waxes (3404), and candles (3406). The strong performance of surface-active agents underpins the sector's overall growth.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's market for soaps, waxes, polishes, and related products (CN 34) demonstrated strong fundamentals. The sector achieved substantial value growth driven primarily by price increases, expanded its trade surplus, and saw significant growth in domestic production. Geopolitical and economic shifts led to a reconfiguration of trade flows: exports pivoted away from Russia towards the US and Ukraine, while imports diversified with the notable rise of Serbia and China as sources. Internally, the EU saw a decentralisation of production strength, with countries like Italy and Poland emerging as major exporters. The combination of increased specialisation and reduced import concentration has likely bolstered the sector's resilience. Overall, the data portrays a dynamic, growing, and adapting industry that remains a strong net exporter on the global stage.