Market evolution: Soap (CN 3401) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in CN 3401 — a broad product category encompassing soap bars, liquid and cream skin-washing preparations, and soap-impregnated paper or nonwovens — over the period 2015–2025. The EU operates as a substantial net exporter in this market, and the decade under review saw marked shifts in trade volumes, values, partner structures, and price dynamics. Three main findings structure the analysis: the EU's strengthening export orientation, the diversification of both sourcing and destination markets, and the role of price inflation and external shocks in shaping recent trade performance. For the full product definition and scope.

1. A Doubling of Export Value Driven by Volume Growth and Rising Unit Prices

1.1 Export growth outpaced import growth across the decade

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of CN 3401 nearly doubled in value, rising from €1.00 billion to €1.94 billion (+94.0%). Over the same period, imports grew more moderately from €674 million to €980 million (+45.4%). As a result, the EU's trade surplus in soap products widened dramatically, from €328 million to €963 million — an increase of 193.9%. This confirms a structural trend of growing EU competitiveness in this sector.

Source: General Overview — Trade

1.2 Value growth was driven by both quantity expansion and price appreciation

Export volumes grew by 24.4%, from 445,947 tonnes to 554,703 tonnes, while average export unit values climbed from €2,246/tonne to €3,502/tonne (+55.9%). This means that more than half of the value increase came from higher prices rather than sheer volume growth. On the import side, quantity growth was more modest (+15.1%, from 362,352t to 417,091t), while import prices rose from €1,860/tonne to €2,349/tonne (+26.3%).

Source: General Overview — Trade

1.3 Liquid and cream skin-washing products led the export surge

A product-segment breakdown reveals that the single largest driver of export growth was sub-category 340130 — organic surface-active products for washing the skin in liquid or cream form. EU exports of this segment rose from €458 million to €1.23 billion (+169%), growing from 45% to 63% of total CN 3401 exports. Toilet soap bars (340111) remained a significant export category, rising from €323 million to €441 million (+36%), while industrial-form soap (340120, flakes/granules/powder) grew more modestly from €130 million to €142 million. Non-toilet soap bars (340119) also showed healthy growth, from €91 million to €128 million (+41%).

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

The dominance of liquid/cream preparations in export growth likely reflects global consumer trends toward shower gels and liquid hand soaps, as well as higher average unit values in this segment (€4,036/t exported in 2025 versus €3,501/t for toilet soap bars).

2. Diversification of Trade Partners and Growing Export Intensity

2.1 The United States and China emerged as key growth markets for EU exports

The top export destinations underwent significant reshuffling over the decade. While the United Kingdom remained the largest single destination (€262 million → €381 million, +45%), the most dynamic growth came from:

• United States: from €69 million to €222 million (+219.5%)
• China: from €29 million to €120 million (+319.1%)
• Norway: from €45 million to €120 million (+165.5%)
• Ukraine: from €13 million to €47 million (+276.7%)

By contrast, exports to the Russian Federation declined slightly from €73 million to €65 million (−11.1%), likely reflecting geopolitical disruptions post-2022.

2.2 Türkiye and China gained ground as import sources, while UK share held steady

On the import side, the United Kingdom remained the top supplier (€269 million → €254 million, −5.5%), but several partners saw rapid growth:

• Türkiye: from €83 million to €185 million (+123.9%)
• China: from €49 million to €127 million (+159.5%)
• Indonesia: from €11 million to €38 million (+245.5%)

Meanwhile, imports from Israel and Malaysia contracted significantly (−37.9% and −50.7% respectively), suggesting a shift in sourcing patterns.

2.3 Trade concentration decreased, indicating a more diversified market structure

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by partner fell from 2,058 to 1,391 (−32.4%), while export concentration declined from 938 to 722 (−23.0%). Both values indicate moderate concentration; the sharper drop on the import side signals that the EU is sourcing soap products from a broader range of countries than it did a decade ago.

Source: Concentration — HHI

2.4 France and Italy emerged as leading EU exporters alongside Germany

Among EU Member States, export performance varied considerably:

• France showed the most striking growth, rising from €159 million to €476 million (+199%), overtaking Germany in some years
• Italy grew from €108 million to €281 million (+160%)
• Germany remained the largest exporter but grew more modestly, from €340 million to €402 million (+18%)
• Spain surged from €43 million to €134 million (+213%)

In specialisation terms, Greece (RSCA: 0.49), Poland (0.43), and Italy (0.24) showed the strongest revealed comparative advantage in CN 3401 exports in 2025, while Ireland and Finland showed the weakest.

2.5 The EU's net export position strengthened substantially

The EU's net import reliance deepened from −9.9% in 2015 to −33.1% in 2025, confirming the EU's position as an increasingly dominant net exporter of soap products. Meanwhile, trade intensity rose from 30.3% to 56.8%, and export propensity climbed from 21.5% to 47.2%, indicating that EU production is increasingly oriented toward international markets.

Source: Autonomy & Vulnerability

3. Price Inflation, Supply Shocks, and the Post-Pandemic Adjustment

3.1 The 2020–2022 period saw significant price dislocations

The most notable feature of the decade's price dynamics is the sharp acceleration of unit values in 2020–2022, driven by a combination of pandemic-related demand surges (particularly for hygiene products), supply-chain disruptions, and input-cost inflation. EU export prices rose from €2,246/t in 2015 to a peak of approximately €3,502/t in 2025, with much of the increase concentrated in the 2020–2022 window.

3.2 Identified supply shocks reveal pandemic- and geopolitics-driven disruptions

The shock detection analysis identifies three major price anomalies:

Source: Volatility — Supply Shocks

The China export-price shock in 2022 (abnormality score of 110.1) stands out as extreme. This likely reflects the combination of soaring raw-material and energy costs in 2022, which pushed Chinese export prices upward at an unusual rate. The Switzerland import-price dip in 2020 may reflect pandemic-era demand distortions or temporary competitive pricing. The Türkiye import-price spike in 2022, given that country's 19.3% share of EU soap imports, had a material impact on overall import costs.

3.3 Trade volatility varied substantially across partners

Volatility analysis shows that trade with established, geographically proximate partners tended to be more stable:

• Most stable import partners (by coefficient of variation): Switzerland (0.076), United Kingdom (0.103), United States (0.089)
• Most volatile import partners: Kosovo (0.900), Pakistan (0.817), Serbia (0.464), Ukraine (0.449)
• Most stable export partners: United Kingdom (0.101), Switzerland (0.114), Türkiye (0.111)
• Most volatile export partners: China (0.394), Russia (0.340), United States (0.336)

The high volatility of trade with emerging-market partners such as Kosovo, Pakistan, and Ukraine suggests that these relationships, while growing in absolute terms, remain subject to significant year-to-year swings — potentially linked to currency fluctuations, political instability, or small base effects.

3.4 EU production scaled up to meet growing demand

EU production volumes grew from 1.38 billion kg to 2.60 billion kg (+88.2%), while production value rose from €2.41 billion to €4.06 billion (+68.8%). This expansion underpinned the export growth documented above and indicates that EU soap manufacturers responded robustly to both domestic and international demand — notably the pandemic-era surge in hygiene products in 2020.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU soap market (CN 3401) transformed from a moderately sized, relatively concentrated trade category into a more diversified, export-intensive sector with a deepening trade surplus. Three key dynamics defined this evolution:

1. Value growth significantly outpaced volume growth, particularly in exports, reflecting both a structural shift toward higher-value liquid and cream preparations (340130) and broader input-cost inflation that pushed unit values upward across all segments.

2. Trade partner diversification proceeded on both the export and import sides. The United States and China became major growth markets for EU exports, while Türkiye and Indonesia gained share as import sources. The declining HHI confirms a broadening of the EU's trade relationships, though volatility with emerging partners remains elevated.

3. The post-pandemic period (2020–2022) introduced significant price shocks — most notably the extreme Chinese export-price abnormality in 2022 — which, combined with energy and raw-material cost pressures, contributed to the sharp rise in observed trade values in recent years.

The EU's position as a net exporter has strengthened considerably, with export propensity nearly doubling. This suggests that EU soap manufacturers have not only maintained but expanded their competitiveness on global markets, aided by production scale-up, product specialisation in premium segments, and geographic diversification of customer bases.