Market evolution: Toilet soap (CN 340111) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in toilet soap and related preparations (Combined Nomenclature code 340111) over the period 2015–2025. The product category encompasses bar and cake soaps, moulded soap products, and detergent-impregnated tissues for personal hygiene, including medicated variants. The EU operates as a net exporter of these products throughout the entire period, with the trade surplus growing substantially over the decade. However, this headline figure masks significant structural shifts: while export values rose by 36.4%, export volumes actually declined by 7.1%, indicating a decisive turn toward higher-value, premium-positioned products. Meanwhile, import volumes grew by nearly 10%, driven largely by shifting supplier dynamics and the emergence of new sourcing origins. The report is organised around three main findings: (1) the structural divergence between value and volume trends, (2) the geographic reshuffling of both sourcing and destination markets, and (3) the changing nature of market concentration and the EU's strategic positioning.

1. The Great Decoupling: Rising Values Amid Declining Volumes

A central feature of the 2015–2025 period is the divergence between the value and volume trajectories of EU toilet soap trade. Export revenues increased by 36.4% while tonnage fell by 7.1%, a pattern that points to a fundamental transformation in the product mix and competitive positioning of EU producers.

Export values surged even as volumes contracted

The EU's total export performance tells a striking story. In value terms, exports grew from €323.2 million in 2015 to €440.7 million in 2025 (+36.4%). Yet in volume terms, exports fell from 135,452 tonnes to 125,887 tonnes (−7.1%). The reconciliation lies in the dramatic rise in unit export prices, which climbed from €2,386 per tonne to €3,501 per tonne — a cumulative increase of 46.7%.

This pattern is consistent with a shift in EU production toward premium, branded, and higher-margin products — such as organic, natural, or medicated soaps — while lower-margin basic soap production increasingly relocates outside the EU or loses market share to imports. EU production data supports this interpretation: domestic production volume fell from 658 million kg to 630 million kg (−4.3%), while production value dropped even more sharply from €1.24 billion to €868 million (−29.9%). The fact that production value fell faster than production volume implies that unit production values in the EU declined, even as export unit values rose — suggesting that the EU is increasingly exporting its most sophisticated, premium products while retaining or sourcing lower-value goods domestically and from abroad.

Import dynamics reveal a contrasting pattern

Unlike exports, EU imports grew in both value and volume, albeit at a much more modest pace. Import value rose from €237.5 million to €278.0 million (+17.0%) and volumes from 138,978 tonnes to 152,610 tonnes (+9.8%). Import prices increased only 6.6% (from €1,709/t to €1,822/t), reflecting the fact that imported toilet soap tends to occupy the lower- and mid-market segments. The widening gap between export and import prices — from €677 per tonne in 2015 to €1,679 per tonne in 2025 — underscores the EU's increasing specialisation in high-value soap products.

The trade surplus roughly doubled

As a result of these divergent trends, the EU's trade surplus in toilet soap grew from €85.6 million to €162.7 million, an increase of 90.0%. The net import reliance moved from −7.9% in 2015 to −17.8% in 2025, confirming that the EU's position as a net exporter strengthened considerably over the decade. In some intermediate years, the net exporter position was even stronger (reaching −43.1% at its peak), though it subsequently moderated. The trade intensity of the sector also increased dramatically, from 21.4% to 58.2% (+172.3%), indicating that external markets have become far more important to the EU soap industry over this period.

2. A Geographic Reshuffling of Trade Partners

The decade 2015–2025 witnessed a significant reorientation of both the EU's import sources and export destinations for toilet soap. Traditional partners saw their positions erode or grow, while a number of emerging economies entered or climbed the ranks as trading partners.

Import sources: the rise of Türkiye and emerging suppliers

Among the EU's top import partners, Türkiye consolidated its position as the leading supplier, growing from €58.8 million to €91.9 million (+56.3%). This reflects Türkiye's long-standing competitiveness in personal care manufacturing and its geographic proximity to EU markets.

The United Kingdom, which was the EU's largest import source in 2015 at €79.4 million, fell to second place by 2025 at €68.4 million (−13.9%). This decline likely reflects post-Brexit trade friction and the reorientation of supply chains. Israel's dramatic decline from €49.5 million to €18.3 million (−62.9%) represents one of the most notable shifts, potentially linked to changes in production locations of multinational companies or increased competition from other origins.

Several smaller suppliers experienced extraordinary growth. Pakistan surged from a negligible €20,000 to €7.3 million, representing an increase of over 36,000%. Serbia grew from €1.4 million to €6.4 million (+366.5%), likely benefiting from its EU accession candidacy and associated trade facilitation measures. China more than doubled its exports to the EU, from €13.2 million to €27.3 million (+106.0%). The volatility of these newer suppliers tends to be high — Pakistan's coefficient of variation stands at 0.82 and Kosovo's at 0.97 — indicating that these trade flows are still maturing and may be subject to disruption.

Export destinations: the UK and US anchor growth, Russia fades

On the export side, the United Kingdom remained the EU's largest single export destination, growing from €55.1 million to €90.0 million (+63.4%). The United States surged from €34.1 million to €64.9 million (+90.2%), making it the second-largest market and reflecting strong demand for premium European toiletries in the American market. Mexico also emerged as a fast-growing destination, more than doubling from €18.7 million to €39.0 million (+108.5%).

The most dramatic decline among export destinations was the Russian Federation, which fell from €24.1 million to €10.3 million (−57.3%). While some of this decline may predate the 2022 geopolitical rupture, the data shows a sharp contraction consistent with the impact of EU sanctions and Russian counter-measures. The coefficient of variation for exports to Russia (0.55) is among the highest for any major partner, confirming the instability of this market in recent years.

The intra-EU dimension: Germany dominates, Spain rises

Among EU member states, Germany was by far the largest exporter to non-EU markets, accounting for €164.1 million in 2025 (up 21.0% from 2015). Italy and France also held substantial positions. Spain, however, stood out as the fastest-growing exporter, increasing from €12.8 million to €45.8 million (+257.6%) — a remarkable expansion that likely reflects both growing production capacity and strategic orientation toward Latin American and North African markets. The Netherlands, by contrast, saw its export position weaken from €42.8 million to €29.6 million (−30.7%), possibly reflecting logistics or re-export dynamics shifting.

On the import side, the Netherlands (€48.8 million) and Germany (€45.0 million) were the largest recipients of toilet soap from non-EU origins, consistent with their roles as major logistics and distribution hubs. France saw the fastest growth among importers, rising from €16.7 million to €29.0 million (+73.6%).

3. Market Concentration, Specialisation, and Strategic Positioning

The data reveals an evolving picture of market concentration and competitive specialisation, with implications for the EU's long-term strategic positioning in global toilet soap trade.

Import sources diversified; export destinations concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value declined from 2,220 to 1,901 (−14.4%), indicating a meaningful diversification of the EU's import sources. This is a positive development from a supply security perspective, as it reduces dependence on any single supplier country. The rise of Pakistan, Serbia, and China as new or growing suppliers has contributed to this reduced concentration.

Paradoxically, the export concentration moved in the opposite direction, with the HHI rising from 625 to 962 (+54.0% by value). This means that EU exports have become more focused on a smaller number of destination markets — principally the United Kingdom and the United States. While these are large and relatively stable markets, increasing concentration on fewer partners does introduce a degree of vulnerability should demand conditions change in those specific countries.

EU specialisation is concentrated in a handful of member states

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that a small number of EU member states account for the bulk of competitive advantage in toilet soap exports:

Poland emerges as the most specialised EU member state in toilet soap exports, with a revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of 3.55 and a normalised RSCA of 0.56. Germany, while the largest absolute producer (31.8% of EU production) and exporter (21.2% of EU exports), shows a more moderate RCA of 1.50 — reflecting the diversity of its broader manufacturing base. At the other end of the spectrum, Malta, Finland, and Ireland show strongly negative RSCA values, indicating they are net importers with virtually no competitive advantage in this product category.

Price shocks signal supply chain disruptions

The shock analysis identifies three significant events over the decade. The most notable was a price shock in EU imports from Türkiye in 2022, where prices surged by 19.5% (abnormality score: 6.3), affecting a flow representing 34.9% of total import value. This timing aligns with the global inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions of the post-pandemic period. A second significant shock occurred in 2018, when EU export prices to the United Kingdom jumped by 43.1% (abnormality: 4.9), potentially reflecting currency movements or pricing adjustments ahead of Brexit-related uncertainty. A third, smaller shock involved a 17.4% price decline in exports to Norway in 2021.

These shocks, while significant, appear to have been absorbed without fundamentally altering the long-term trade trajectory — suggesting that the EU toilet soap market has reasonable resilience, though continued monitoring of Turkish import prices and UK market access remains warranted.

Conclusion

The EU toilet soap market (CN 340111) has undergone a significant structural transformation over the 2015–2025 decade. The most salient trend is the divergence between value and volume in exports: the EU is shipping less soap by weight but earning substantially more per tonne, reflecting a strategic move upmarket toward premium, branded, and specialised products. This is consistent with broader patterns in European consumer goods manufacturing, where higher-cost producers focus on quality, innovation, and brand equity while basic production migrates to lower-cost locations.

The geographic landscape has shifted markedly. On the import side, Türkiye has consolidated its lead, while the United Kingdom and Israel have lost ground. Emerging suppliers such as Pakistan, Serbia, and China have rapidly scaled up their presence, contributing to a welcome diversification of the EU's supply base. On the export side, the United Kingdom and United States have become even more important destinations, while Russia's role has collapsed — a development with clear geopolitical roots. The increasing concentration of EU exports on fewer destination markets, as captured by the rising export HHI, is a development worth monitoring.

The EU's strategic autonomy in toilet soap has strengthened, with the net exporter position growing and trade intensity increasing sharply. However, the decline in domestic production volumes and values suggests that the EU's manufacturing base for this product category is contracting even as its export revenues grow. This raises questions about long-term industrial resilience: if premium product innovation is increasingly tied to manufacturing capacity, the erosion of the production base could eventually constrain export growth. The data thus paints a picture of a market that is commercially successful in the short term but faces structural questions about the sustainability of its competitive advantages over the longer horizon.