Market evolution: Candles and tapers (CN 3406) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in candles, tapers and the like (Customs Code 3406) over the period 2015 to 2025. The analysis is based on official trade data and examines overall market trends, the shifting geography of trade partners, and the EU's production capacity and strategic vulnerability. The period was characterised by significant growth in trade values, a substantial rise in import volumes, major shifts in key partnerships, and a strengthening of the EU's domestic production base.

1. Surging values amid divergent volume trends

The decade saw a pronounced divergence between the monetary value of trade and the physical volume of goods exchanged, driven by significant price inflation, particularly in exports.

1.1. Import volumes more than doubled while export volumes contracted

EU imports of candles grew substantially in both value and volume. Import value rose by 58.5%, from €278 million in 2015 to €441 million in 2025. More dramatically, import quantity surged by 103.5%, from 78,889 tonnes to 160,549 tonnes. This indicates the EU significantly increased its physical consumption of imported candles. In contrast, EU exports told a different story: while export value increased by 52.3% (from €267 million to €406 million), export volume fell by 17.6% (from 99,434 tonnes to 81,978 tonnes). This divergence points to substantial price appreciation in EU exports, with the average export price increasing by 84.6%. For a detailed overview, see the General Overview.

1.2. The EU's persistent but narrowing trade deficit

Throughout the period, the EU remained a net importer of candles. The trade deficit (exports minus imports) stood at -€11.2 million in 2015, widened to a peak of -€80.9 million in 2021, and narrowed to -€34.4 million by 2025. The narrowing of the deficit, despite rising import volumes, is a direct result of the high growth in the value of exports. The net import reliance decreased by 50.7% over the period, falling from 6.6% to 3.2%, indicating a gradual improvement in the bloc's trade position for this product. This metric can be explored further under Net Import Reliance.

2. A fundamental reshaping of trade partnerships

The geographic sources of EU imports and the destinations for its exports underwent a dramatic transformation, marked by the rise of Asian suppliers and a reorientation of European export flows.

2.1. China solidified its dominance as the primary import source

China was the EU's largest supplier of candles by a significant margin. Imports from China grew by 123.9% in value (from €135 million to €301 million) and constituted over two-thirds of the import value by 2025. This heavy concentration contributed to a 63.1% increase in the import market concentration index (HHI). Other Asian suppliers also gained ground: imports from Viet Nam surged by 192.4% to €47 million, and those from India grew by 384.3% to €16 million. Conversely, the role of traditional partners diminished; imports from the United Kingdom fell by 56.6% and those from the United States by 54.3%. You can explore the top partners here.

2.2. Export destinations shifted towards the US and Europe's East

EU export patterns also evolved. The United Kingdom remained the top export market, with its share growing by 19.1% to €119 million. However, the most spectacular growth was seen in exports to the United States, which increased by 169.8% to reach €61 million, making it the second-largest market by 2025. Exports to Ukraine saw explosive growth (+1136.2%), rising to €11 million. In contrast, exports to Russia collapsed by 72.2% to just €2 million, reflecting the impact of geopolitical events and sanctions. The diversification of export markets is evidenced by a 32.3% decrease in the export concentration index (HHI). The performance of the EU's top exporters, led by Poland and France, is detailed by reporter countries.

3. Strengthening production base mitigates strategic vulnerability

Despite heavy import reliance on a single partner, the EU's own production capacity expanded significantly, reducing strategic vulnerability while increasing the sector's integration into global trade.

3.1. EU production volumes nearly doubled

EU production of candles increased substantially over the decade. Production quantity grew by 79.3%, rising from 422,481 tonnes in 2015 to a peak of 862,167 tonnes in 2023 before settling at 757,358 tonnes in 2025. Production value grew even faster, by 119.4%, from €864 million to €1.90 billion. This expansion in domestic output is a key factor behind the declining net import reliance. The most specialised producers within the EU are Latvia and Poland, which hold strong comparative advantages in candle production. Details on EU production volumes are available here.

3.2. High volatility and a notable supply shock

Trade relationships exhibited high volatility, with Belarus and Russia showing the most erratic import flows (Coefficient of Variation >1.8). Export flows to Ukraine and Russia were also highly volatile. A significant supply-side shock was detected in 2022, involving imports from China. This price shock was severe (abnormality score 3.4), with import prices from China spiking by 24.9% in a single year, coinciding with global energy cost inflation that would have impacted paraffin wax, a key candle input. This event highlights the EU's exposure to price volatility in its concentrated supply chain. These dynamics are analysed in the Volatility & Shocks section.

Conclusion

The EU candle market between 2015 and 2025 was characterised by robust growth in monetary terms, underpinned by significant price inflation, especially for exports. The import side became heavily reliant on China, creating concentration risks that were painfully evident in the 2022 price shock. Simultaneously, the EU's export geography diversified, with strong growth in the US and Ukrainian markets. Most importantly, the period saw a substantial expansion of the EU's own production capacity, which helped to meaningfully reduce the bloc's net import reliance. Looking forward, the market's stability will depend on managing the concentrated import base, sustaining export diversification, and maintaining the competitiveness of a growing domestic industry.