Market evolution: Plastics and plastic articles (CN 39) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in Plastics and articles thereof (CN 39) over the period 2015–2025. CN 39 is a broad heading encompassing primary-form polymers (polyethylene, polypropylene, PVC, polyesters, polyamides, etc.) as well as finished plastic articles (packaging, sheets, tubes, household goods, builders' ware). It is one of the EU's largest manufacturing trade categories, covering over 90 sub-headings linked to the EU's chemical and plastics-processing industries.

The period under review spans a decade marked by several structural shifts: the aftermath of the 2014–2016 oil-price collapse, the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2021–2022 energy and commodity-price spike, and geopolitical reconfigurations following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Against this backdrop, the EU's plastics trade has undergone a significant transformation — from a comfortable surplus position to a more balanced but increasingly import-dependent relationship with the rest of the world. This report is organised around three main findings.

1. A Widening Structural Imbalance: Import Growth Outpaces Exports

EU export values rose only modestly while import values surged

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU extra-EU exports of plastics grew from €60.1 billion to €70.7 billion (+17.7% in value). Over the same span, imports grew far more sharply, rising from €39.7 billion to €61.2 billion (+54.3%). The trade surplus consequently shrank from €20.4 billion in 2015 to just €9.5 billion in 2025 — a contraction of 53.5%.

The volume–value divergence reveals a price-driven export story

A striking feature is the divergence between EU export values and volumes. Export quantities actually fell by 15.4% (from 24.2 million tonnes to 20.5 million tonnes), yet export values rose by 17.7%. This is explained by a 39.1% increase in average unit export prices (from €2,483/t to €3,454/t), reflecting both the 2021–2022 commodity-price spike and a structural shift toward higher-value-added product mixes. Imports, by contrast, grew in both volume (+49.8%) and value (+54.3%), with average import prices rising only 3.0% over the full period (from €2,515/t to €2,591/t). This suggests that the EU has increasingly sourced bulk, lower-value-added plastics from cost-competitive suppliers abroad.

The EU remains a net exporter, but its margin is eroding

The net import reliance indicator confirms this trend: the EU was a net exporter throughout the period, but the gap narrowed from −8.3% in 2015 to −4.1% in 2025 (negative values indicate a net export position). At its most narrow (−2.6%), the surplus came close to parity. The export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — declined from 25.4% to 23.1%, while trade intensity held relatively steady at around 35–36%. This points to an EU plastics sector that is increasingly oriented toward the internal market rather than global exports, even as it absorbs growing volumes of imports.

EU domestic production expanded substantially in both volume and value

Despite the trade surplus erosion, EU production of plastics grew strongly: production quantities rose by 113.8% (from 102.7 billion kg to 219.7 billion kg) and production values by 223.3% (from €82.5 billion to €266.8 billion). This expansion indicates that the EU's plastics industry has not declined in absolute terms; rather, demand growth — both domestic and from trading partners — has been met increasingly by imports alongside robust domestic output.

2. Geographic Reorientation: China's Rise and Russia's Collapse

China has become the EU's dominant extra-EU plastics supplier

The most consequential geographic shift in the period has been the dramatic growth of Chinese plastics exports to the EU. EU imports from China surged from €7.3 billion in 2015 to €16.3 billion in 2025 (+125.2%), peaking at €17.5 billion in 2023. China's share of extra-EU plastics imports thus expanded significantly, making it by far the largest single source — ahead of the United States (€9.5 billion, +51.3%) and the United Kingdom (€6.3 billion, −8.1%). Türkiye (+136.6%) and South Korea (+72.8%) also recorded large gains, though from lower baselines.

China's import volatility underscores a strategic dependency risk

China's import flows exhibited the second-highest volatility among the EU's major partners (coefficient of variation of 0.31), behind only Egypt. The rapid volume expansion combined with price swings — Chinese import unit prices rose from €1,252/t in 2015 to a peak of €1,630/t in 2022 before falling back to €1,101/t in 2025 — creates a dual exposure to both supply-side disruptions and exchange-rate or dumping risks. The rising import-side HHI (from 1,093 in 2015 to 1,261 in 2025) reflects precisely this growing concentration on a smaller number of dominant suppliers.

Russia's near-total exclusion from EU plastics trade

The collapse of EU exports to Russia is one of the starkest features of the period. From €3.4 billion in 2015, exports to Russia fell to just €0.5 billion in 2025 (−86.7%), reflecting the successive rounds of EU sanctions imposed after February 2022. Russia had been a top-7 destination for EU plastics exports; its collapse registered the highest volatility coefficient among export partners (0.56). The loss of the Russian market partially explains why overall EU export volumes declined, though other markets — notably the United States (+59.2%, reaching €10.0 billion) and India (+36.9%) — absorbed some of the redirection.

EU export concentration is falling while import concentration is rising

The export-side HHI fell from 770 to 718 over the period, indicating that EU plastics exports have become modestly more diversified across partners. This is partly a statistical consequence of Russia's exit from the picture, redistributing shares across a broader set of mid-sized buyers. By contrast, the import-side HHI rose from 1,093 to 1,261, signalling increasing import concentration — driven primarily by China's growing dominance.

Germany anchors intra-EU plastics trade

Among EU Member States, Germany is by far the largest actor, accounting for €22.6 billion in extra-EU exports (+15.2%) and €11.0 billion in extra-EU imports (+25.2%) in 2025. Belgium, Italy, France, and the Netherlands form a second tier. Poland recorded the fastest import growth among major EU economies (+133.5%), consistent with the country's rapid industrialisation and its role as a manufacturing hub. Spain also saw import growth exceed 100%.

3. Product-Level Dynamics: Waste Trade Collapse, Price Spikes, and Shifting Segment Shares

Plastic waste and scrap exports declined dramatically

The most striking segment-level development is the collapse of exports in CN 3915 (waste, parings and scrap of plastics). EU exports of plastic waste fell from 2.5 million tonnes (€840 million) in 2015 to just 1.5 million tonnes (€359 million) in 2025 — a decline of 42% in volume and 57% in value. The sharpest drop occurred between 2017 and 2019, coinciding with China's "National Sword" policy, which banned imports of most plastic waste from January 2018. Subsequent tightening of EU waste-shipment regulations further constrained the trade. Unit prices for this segment fell from €333/t to €245/t, reflecting both reduced demand and the lower quality of remaining tradeable waste streams.

Floor and wall coverings (CN 3918) recorded the fastest import growth

Among the top seven import segments, CN 3918 — floor and wall coverings of plastics — saw the most explosive growth: import volumes nearly tripled from 490,000 tonnes to 1.5 million tonnes, and values more than doubled from €803 million to €1.8 billion. This likely reflects both the EU construction cycle and the growing market penetration of luxury vinyl tile (LVT) and other synthetic flooring products, much of it sourced from Asia. The supplementary unit data (square metres) confirms the trend, with imported surface area rising from 125 million m² to 323 million m². Unit prices for this segment fell by 28% over the period (from €1,640/t to €1,179/t), suggesting increased competition and scale economies from Asian manufacturers.

Primary-form polymers remain the backbone of trade, but with divergent trajectories

The largest traded segments remain the primary-form polymer categories:

CN 3926 (other articles n.e.s.) and CN 3923 (packaging) are the largest import categories by value, and both saw large value increases driven more by unit-price growth than volume growth. This is consistent with rising input costs being passed through to finished goods.

The 2021–2022 energy shock left a visible price mark across all segments

Across nearly every sub-heading, import and export unit prices show a pronounced spike in 2021–2022, followed by a partial correction in 2023–2025. For example:

• CN 3901 (ethylene polymers) imports: €895/t in 2020 → €1,630/t in 2022 → €1,101/t in 2025
• CN 3907 (polyesters/polycarbonates) exports: €1,993/t in 2020 → €3,137/t in 2022 → €2,573/t in 2025
• CN 3904 (PVC) exports: €1,180/t in 2020 → €2,492/t in 2022 → €1,582/t in 2025

These price dynamics mirror the global petrochemical price cycle, driven by surging energy costs in Europe and post-pandemic demand recovery. The fact that EU export prices rose more sharply and remained more elevated than import prices partly explains the value-versus-volume divergence noted in Section 1: the EU exported fewer tonnes but at significantly higher prices, while importing more tonnes at relatively stable prices.

Detected price shocks highlight concentrated market events

The volatility analysis identified three significant price-shock events:

The Mexico export shock (2022, abnormality score 16.8) stands out as particularly unusual and may reflect a re-routing of trade flows or a specific contractual event rather than a broad market trend. The Ukraine export price spike in 2021 preceded the 2022 conflict and may reflect supply-chain tightening. The Egypt import shock (2021) is consistent with the broader petrochemical price surge, amplified for a smaller-volume trade flow.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's plastics trade (CN 39) has undergone a significant structural transformation. The EU retains a net export position, but its trade surplus has halved — from over €20 billion to under €10 billion — as import volumes and values have grown much faster than exports. This is not a story of industrial decline: EU plastics production more than doubled in volume over the same period. Rather, it reflects the combination of robust domestic demand growth, increased sourcing from competitive third-country producers (above all China and Türkiye), and the loss of key export markets following the sanctions on Russia.

At the product level, the picture is mixed. The collapse of plastic-waste exports following China's 2018 import ban marks a structural break in circular-economy trade flows. Meanwhile, finished and semi-finished plastic articles (packaging, flooring, sheets) are being imported in ever-larger quantities, often at stable or falling unit prices, suggesting that Asian producers continue to gain market share in these segments. The 2021–2022 energy-price shock left a deep but temporary mark on unit values across all segments, with EU export prices rising more sharply than import prices — a dynamic that temporarily supported the surplus in value terms even as volumes declined.

Looking ahead, the growing concentration of EU plastics imports on a small number of suppliers — with China alone accounting for a dominant and rising share — raises questions about supply-chain resilience. The modest diversification of export markets, while positive, has not fully compensated for the loss of Russia. These dynamics suggest that the EU plastics sector faces a dual challenge: maintaining competitiveness in higher-value segments while managing a growing dependency on imports for both primary polymers and finished articles.