Market evolution: Acrylic resins (CN 3906) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of the European Union's trade in acrylic polymers in primary forms (Customs Code 3906) from 2015 to 2025. The period was marked by significant volatility, including the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts. The analysis reveals a market characterized by persistent export strength but changing trade patterns, with the EU remaining a major net exporter. However, the last decade saw a divergence between value growth and volume trends, alongside a notable shift in both import sources and export destinations.

1. Sustained Export Value Growth Masks Underlying Volume Pressures

The EU's trade in acrylic polymers demonstrated robust value growth over the decade, but this performance concealed divergent trends in physical trade volumes and unit prices.

Export Value Increased Despite Volume Contraction

While the EU's total export value grew by 11.0% from €1.91 billion in 2015 to €2.13 billion in 2025, the exported quantity fell by 12.5% over the same period, from 912,257 to 798,166 tonnes. This indicates a significant increase in the average export price, which rose by 26.8% to reach €2,662 per tonne in 2025. The peak export value of €2.77 billion was recorded in 2022, a year of strong global demand and price inflation. For detailed yearly trends, see the trade overview.

Imports Grew in Both Value and Volume

In contrast to exports, EU imports expanded in both value and volume. Import value rose by 39.1% to €1.13 billion, and quantity increased by 37.5% to 491,855 tonnes. The average import price remained relatively stable, increasing by only 1.2%. This growth in imports was particularly strong from 2020 to 2022, peaking at €1.44 billion in value and 544,915 tonnes in volume in 2022.

The Trade Balance Remained Solidly in Surplus

The EU consistently maintained a positive trade balance throughout the period, confirming its role as a net exporter of acrylic polymers. The surplus started at €1.10 billion in 2015, peaked at €1.34 billion in 2022, and settled at €995 million in 2025—a decrease of 9.8% from the start of the period. The shrinking surplus reflects the faster growth rate of imports compared to exports in recent years.

2. Geographic Re-alignment of Trade Partners

The period witnessed a significant diversification of import sources and a restructuring of key export relationships, driven by geopolitical and economic shifts.

Import Sources Became More Diversified

The concentration of EU imports by partner country, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), decreased by 17.5%, indicating a more diversified supply base. While traditional partners like Japan and the United States remained important, their relative shares declined. Conversely, imports from the United Kingdom, Türkiye, and especially China surged. China's import value to the EU grew by 199.1%, making it a major new source. The most dramatic increase came from Saudi Arabia, where imports rose from a negligible base to €17.3 million. For a breakdown by partner, see the partner analysis.

Export Destinations Showed High Volatility

EU exports were directed to a mix of stable and volatile markets. The United Kingdom, Türkiye, and the United States were consistently the top three destinations by value. However, the most notable dynamic was the collapse of trade with Russia. Exports to Russia fell from €144.7 million in 2015 to virtually zero in 2025, a complete halt following geopolitical events. This void was partially filled by increased exports to China (+48.9%) and other markets. The export HHI increased by 11.6%, suggesting slightly greater concentration, partly due to the loss of the Russian market.

EU Member States Showed Divergent Specialization

Production and export specialization within the EU were concentrated in a few key countries. In 2025, France and Belgium had the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores, indicating strong specialization in acrylic polymer production and exports. Germany, despite having a lower RSCA score, dominated in absolute terms, accounting for 30.1% of EU production and 75.3 billion in exports. For more details, see the specialization analysis.

3. Market Resilience Tested by Shocks and Structural Shifts

The acrylic polymers market faced significant disruptions from macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks, which tested the resilience of the EU's production and trade flows.

Supply Shocks and Extreme Price Volatility Hit Specific Corridors

Trade with certain partners was highly volatile. Exports to Russia exhibited the highest price volatility (coefficient of variation of 0.71), culminating in a final price shock in 2023. The most extreme detected shock was a 519.2% price shift in the EU-Russia export corridor in 2023, coinciding with the collapse of this trade. Other notable price shocks were detected in exports to the United Arab Emirates and Morocco in 2022, likely linked to global supply chain disruptions and energy cost spikes. Explore these events on the shocks dashboard.

EU Production Grew, Bolstering Autonomy

Domestic EU production of acrylic polymers increased substantially. Production quantity grew by 59.8% from 2.46 billion kg in 2015 to 3.94 billion kg in 2025, with a peak of 4.22 billion kg in 2022. This expansion helped maintain the EU's strong positive net import reliance, which stood at -20.4% in 2025 (a negative value indicates a net export position). The growth in production underscores the sector's capacity to serve both the internal market and export demand.

Trade Flows Show High Integration and Export Orientation

The EU's acrylic polymer market remains highly integrated into global trade. The trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) was stable at around 48.5% in 2025. More notably, the export propensity (exports as a share of production) was 37.8%, indicating that over a third of EU production is destined for foreign markets. This high export orientation makes the sector sensitive to global demand fluctuations but also reflects its competitive strength.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU acrylic polymers market demonstrated resilience and adaptability. The bloc successfully defended its position as a net exporter, with export values growing despite volume pressures and a major geopolitical shock severing trade with Russia. This was achieved through significant growth in domestic production and a strategic reorientation of trade flows toward new and diversified partners. While import growth has narrowed the trade surplus, the sector's high export propensity and integration into global value chains remain defining features. Looking forward, the market's stability will depend on managing input cost volatility, navigating geopolitical realignments, and sustaining the competitive advantage of its specialized producer base.