Market evolution: Plastic waste and scrap (CN 3915) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of European Union (EU) trade in plastic waste and scrap (Customs code 3915) from 2015 to 2025. The period is characterized by a fundamental transformation in the bloc's trade flows, driven by major policy shifts in key global markets. The EU has transitioned from a major net exporter of plastic waste to a market with a much smaller external surplus, as export volumes have declined sharply and import reliance has increased. This analysis explores the structural collapse of traditional export markets, the resultant reshaping of import dynamics, and the nuanced performance of different plastic waste segments.

1. The Dramatic Retraction of EU Plastic Waste Exports

The most significant trend over the period is the substantial decline in the EU's exports of plastic waste, both in volume and value. The trade overview shows the scale of this shift.

1.1. Overall Export Decline

EU export values fell by 57.3%, from €840.1 million in 2015 to €358.7 million in 2025. The decline in volume was less severe but still substantial, decreasing by 42.1% from 2.53 million tonnes to 1.46 million tonnes over the same period. This indicates a simultaneous fall in both quantity and price, with export prices dropping by 26.3%.

1.2. The Collapse of China and Hong Kong as Key Destinations

The primary driver of this export decline was the near-complete cessation of trade with China and Hong Kong. Top export partners data reveals a precipitous drop:

• China: Exports plummeted by 99.9%, from €456.9 million (2015) to just €234 thousand (2025).
• Hong Kong: A similar 99.9% collapse occurred, from €188.0 million to €234 thousand.

This pattern is directly attributable to China's National Sword policy, which progressively restricted plastic waste imports starting in 2017-2018, with a full ban on solid waste imports implemented by the end of 2020.

1.3. The Pivot to New but Smaller Destinations

As traditional Asian markets closed, EU exports redirected towards other countries, though these new flows are significantly smaller. Notable growth was observed in:

• Türkiye: Exports surged by 1,367.5%, from €6.4 million to €93.8 million.
• Malaysia: Exports grew by 425.4%, from €12.8 million to €67.4 million.
• Indonesia: Exports increased by 3,886.9%, from €1.9 million to €74.7 million.

While these partnerships have grown, their combined value in 2025 (€235.9 million for the three) is less than half of what China alone received in 2015. The export market has become more dispersed, as confirmed by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export concentration, which fell by 52.1% from 3,530 to 1,692.

2. A New Trade Equilibrium: Rising Imports and a Shattered Balance

The collapse in exports has fundamentally altered the EU's trade position, leading to a substantial increase in the relative importance of imports. The market structure data highlights this shift.

2.1. The Erosion of the Trade Surplus

The EU's trade surplus in plastic waste has evaporated. The positive balance of €682.9 million in 2015 shrank by 84.1% to a mere €108.7 million in 2025. In 2022, the balance briefly turned negative (-€0.48 million), marking a historic moment where the EU became a net importer for that year.

2.2. Growth in Import Volume and Value

Unlike exports, imports have increased. Import values rose by 59.1%, from €157.1 million to €250.0 million, while volumes grew by 16.7%, from 685,422 tonnes to 799,871 tonnes. Import prices increased even more significantly, by 36.3%, indicating sourcing from higher-cost suppliers or increased demand for specific grades.

2.3. The United Kingdom as the Dominant Import Source

Post-Brexit, the United Kingdom has solidified its role as the EU's primary external source of plastic waste. Top import partners data shows:

• United Kingdom: Import values almost doubled, rising by 99.8% from €64.3 million to €128.5 million. The UK accounted for 74.5% of the value share of the top import shock event in 2022.
• Other significant suppliers include Norway and Switzerland, though their shares have been relatively stable or slightly declined.

This concentration has increased overall import market concentration, with the HHI for import value rising by 36.1% from 2,085 to 2,837.

3. Divergent Segment Performance and Emerging Volatility

The headline trends mask significant differences across the four sub-categories of plastic waste, and new patterns of volatility have emerged. Analysis is provided in the product segment breakdown.

3.1. Sub-Sector Export Trajectories

The export decline was not uniform:

While Polyethylene waste (391510) remains the largest export category, its value more than halved. The "Other plastics" category (391590) saw the steepest proportional decline. Polystyrene waste (391520) exports proved remarkably resilient.

3.2. Robust Import Growth in Styrene Polymers

On the import side, the growth was most pronounced in Polystyrene waste (391520). Its import volume increased by 554.7% (from 11,992 to 78,551 tonnes) and its value rose by 663.5% (from €6.1 million to €46.6 million). This suggests strong intra-EU demand for recycled polystyrene that domestic collection cannot fully meet.

3.3. Increased Price Volatility and Supply Shocks

The restructuring of trade flows has introduced new price volatility. The volatility and shocks analysis identifies several key events:

• UK Export Price Shock (2018): A sharp 62.8% price increase with high abnormality.
• UK Import Price Shock (2022): An 84.2% price surge, coinciding with the year the EU briefly became a net importer, highlighting the leverage of key suppliers.
• High Volatility Partners: Exports to China (cv=1.71) and imports from Serbia (cv=0.57) and Mexico (cv=1.33) showed the highest coefficient of variation, indicating unstable trading relationships.

Conclusion

The EU plastic waste market between 2015 and 2025 has undergone a systemic shock. The unilateral policy action by China dismantled a decades-old export model, forcing a painful adjustment characterized by volume destruction and the search for smaller, less stable, and often higher-cost markets. This has fundamentally weakened the EU's trade surplus.

The vacuum left by the absence of Chinese demand has not been filled. Instead, the market has partially inwardly reoriented, with a growing reliance on imports from neighboring economies like the United Kingdom. This new equilibrium, with a much smaller export footprint and more concentrated import supply, represents a "new normal" for the European circular economy. The future stability of this trade depends on the continued policy alignment and capacity of alternative export destinations, and on the EU's ability to develop further its domestic recycling infrastructure to reduce import dependency.