Market evolution: Plastic rods and profiles (CN 3916) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in CN 3916 — monofilament over 1 mm, rods, sticks and profile shapes of plastics — from 2015 to 2025. Over this decade, the EU's trade landscape for this product category underwent a structural transformation. While the EU remains a net exporter, its trade surplus shrank by 27.2% (from €507 million to €369 million), driven by a dramatic acceleration of imports that far outpaced export growth. The value of exports rose 35.6% to reach €982 million, but import value surged by 181.6% to €613 million — a divergence that signals a fundamental shift in competitive dynamics. At the same time, the EU's trade intensity nearly doubled, rising from 14.2% to 27.8%, indicating that the EU's plastic rods and profiles sector is now far more exposed to international competition than it was a decade ago. The following sections dissect these dynamics across three axes: the volume–value trade divergence, the geopolitical reshuffling of partners, and the product-level and price-level shifts underpinning the broader trend.

1. A Widening Trade Gap: Imports Surge While Export Volumes Stall

Export value grew, but volumes tell a different story

The headline export figures appear healthy at first glance: EU exports of CN 3916 rose from €725 million in 2015 to €982 million in 2025, a 35.6% increase. However, the underlying volume actually declined by 5.2%, from 195,954 tonnes to 185,844 tonnes. The gap between rising values and falling volumes is explained by a 42.9% increase in unit export prices (from €3,698/t to €5,285/t), reflecting input-cost inflation rather than genuine demand growth.

Meanwhile, import growth was explosive on both the value and volume axes:

Import volumes grew nearly threefold while import prices rose only 14.6%, suggesting that the EU is absorbing large volumes of competitively priced foreign product. This stands in stark contrast to the EU's own export trajectory, where price inflation is masking volume erosion.

EU production remained flat while imports captured incremental demand

EU domestic production volumes were essentially stagnant over the decade, moving from 1.53 billion kg in 2015 to 1.55 billion kg in 2025 (+1.4%). Production value rose more strongly (+23.4%, from €4.01 billion to €4.95 billion), again reflecting price inflation rather than physical output growth. With production volumes flat, the 84,284-tonne increase in import volumes over the period suggests that virtually all incremental demand growth was captured by foreign suppliers.

The trade surplus shrank, but the EU remains a structural net exporter

The EU's net import reliance stayed in negative territory throughout the period (around −10%), confirming the EU's status as a net exporter in this category. However, the surplus narrowed from €507 million to €369 million (−27.2%), and at its widest point (2022, €649 million) the gap was significantly larger than today. The trajectory is clear: imports are growing much faster than exports, and the structural balance is eroding.

2. Geopolitical Reshuffling: From Russia to China and the Western Balkans

China emerged as the dominant source of EU import growth

The single most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the explosive growth of imports from China. Chinese imports surged from €29 million to €233 million, a 702.2% increase that is unmatched by any other partner. By 2025, China alone accounts for 38% of all EU imports in this category — up from just 13% in 2015. This mirrors a broader pattern of Chinese overcapacity in plastics-intensive manufacturing finding its way into European markets.

Other import partners also grew, but from much smaller baselines:

The growing concentration of imports is also reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), which rose from 1,668 to 2,142 for imports (+28.4%). This crosses into "moderately concentrated" territory and is driven almost entirely by the increasing weight of China. In contrast, export-side HHI remained low and even declined slightly (628 → 570, −9.2%), indicating that EU exports remain well-diversified across partner countries.

Russia collapsed as an EU export destination

EU exports to Russia fell from €57 million in 2015 to just €21 million in 2025, a 63.7% decline. Russia was formerly the EU's sixth-largest export market for this product; by 2025 it had dropped sharply. The timing of the decline — accelerating after 2022 — is consistent with the EU sanctions regime imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The volatility coefficient for EU-Russia trade was also the highest of any partner at 1.22 (imports) and 0.37 (exports), reflecting the sharp structural break.

The Western Balkans became increasingly important trade corridors

In contrast to the Russia collapse, EU trade with the Western Balkans grew robustly. Exports to Serbia grew 104.7% (from €28 million to €57 million), and exports to Bosnia and Herzegovina rose 49.7% (from €39 million to €59 million). On the import side, Bosnia and Herzegovina's shipments to the EU grew 404.3% (from €3.3 million to €16.8 million). These trends likely reflect deepening EU supply-chain integration with Western Balkan economies, driven by EU association agreements and nearshoring dynamics. Ukraine also emerged as a growing export market (+41.5%, from €31 million to €44 million), despite the disruption caused by the 2022 Russian invasion.

Germany anchors EU production and exports

On the EU reporter side, Germany is by far the largest exporter, accounting for 44.9% of all extra-EU exports in 2025 (€443 million). Germany also has the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) among large member states at 0.37. Poland was the fastest-growing major exporter (+109.2%, from €58 million to €121 million), doubling its share and solidifying its position as the EU's second-largest exporter. On the import side, the Netherlands showed the most dramatic growth (+1,170.5%), rising from €11 million to €139 million — likely reflecting the Netherlands' role as a major re-distribution hub and its port infrastructure facilitating Chinese inflows.

3. Price Shocks, Product-Level Divergence, and Segment Dynamics

Product segment analysis reveals a dramatic ethylene-rod import surge

CN 3916 is a bundled heading covering three sub-categories. Their import trajectories diverged sharply:

The most dramatic shift is in 391610 (ethylene polymers), where import volumes surged by over 600% in a decade — with the bulk of the growth occurring in 2024 and 2025 alone (volumes jumped from 7,282 t in 2023 to 28,285 t in 2024 and 35,248 t in 2025). Crucially, the import price for this segment collapsed from €5,941/t in 2015 to €2,501/t in 2025 (−57.9%), even as volumes quadrupled. This pattern — surging volumes at falling prices — is consistent with aggressive price competition from overcapacity in exporting countries, particularly China.

The "other plastics" segment (391690) dominates trade in value terms

Despite the ethylene segment's volume surge, 391690 (other plastics) remains the largest category by both import and export value. In 2025, it accounted for €396 million in imports (64.6% of total import value) and €509 million in exports (51.8% of total export value). Its import unit price (€6,328/t) is roughly 2.5 times that of the ethylene segment, reflecting higher-value specialty or engineering plastic profiles. The export price for this segment (€10,973/t) is significantly higher than the import price, suggesting the EU maintains a comparative advantage in higher-value-added product forms within this sub-category.

PVC exports (391620) are declining in volume despite stable values

The 391620 (PVC) segment — historically the EU's largest export category by volume — saw export volumes decline 13.3%, from 143,861 t to 124,723 t. Export values held up better due to a 42.8% price increase (from €2,264/t to €3,237/t). This pattern is consistent with the broader European PVC industry's challenges, including energy cost pressures and declining construction-sector demand in key markets.

Post-pandemic and energy-crisis price shocks were concentrated in 2021–2022

The shock detection analysis identifies three major anomalies:

The UK import price shock in 2021 — an abnormality score of 15.8 is exceptionally high — coincides with post-Brexit trade friction and the global supply-chain disruption that followed the COVID-19 pandemic. The 2022 export price shocks to Bosnia-Herzegovina and the United States align with the European energy crisis, when natural gas and electricity price spikes cascaded into plastics production costs. Volatility was highest for trade with Russia (CV of 1.22 for imports, reflecting the structural break from sanctions) and Ukraine (CV of 0.76 for imports, reflecting wartime disruption).

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in plastic rods and profiles (CN 3916) has been characterized by three converging dynamics: a growing imbalance between stagnating export volumes and surging import volumes; a fundamental reshuffling of trade partners driven by China's dominance, Russia's exclusion, and deeper Western Balkans integration; and a product-level divergence in which lower-value ethylene imports have flooded in at deflating prices while higher-value specialty segments retain an EU price premium. The EU remains a net exporter in this category, with net import reliance stable at around −10%. However, the near-doubling of trade intensity (from 14.2% to 27.8%) and the concentration of import growth in a single partner (China, +702%) raise questions about long-term industrial resilience. The EU's domestic production base has barely expanded in volume terms, even as imports have captured virtually all incremental demand — a pattern that, if sustained, will continue to erode the trade surplus and reshape the competitive landscape for European plastics processors.