Market evolution: PVC rods and profiles (CN 391620) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in PVC monofilament, rods, sticks and profile shapes (customs code 391620) over the period 2015–2025. The EU has consistently been a net exporter of these products throughout the decade, yet the period under review reveals a market shaped by surging unit prices, a dramatic reshuffling of trade partners following geopolitical upheavals, and a gradual erosion of the EU's net export margin. Domestic production has remained broadly stable in volume terms, but the competitive landscape within the EU has shifted, with Poland emerging as a rising exporter alongside the traditional German dominance.

Price Inflation Drives Value Growth While Volumes Stagnate

EU export value grew despite falling volumes, driven entirely by unit-price increases

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU exports of CN 391620 increased in value by 24.0%, rising from €326 million to €404 million. However, export volumes actually declined by 13.3%, from 143,861 tonnes to 124,723 tonnes. The entire value increase is therefore attributable to a 43.0% rise in average export unit prices, from €2,264/t to €3,237/t. The peak export year in value terms was not the final year but rather an intermediate period, with a maximum of €483 million recorded during the window, while volume peaked at 163,239 tonnes.

Imports surged far more dramatically in both value and volume

Import value more than doubled, growing by 137.2% from €54 million to €129 million, while import volumes rose 67.7% from 26,362 tonnes to 44,211 tonnes. Import unit prices climbed 41.4% to €2,907/t. The trade balance remained positive throughout—confirming the EU's persistent net-exporter status—but grew by only 1.4% (from €272 million to €275 million), having peaked at €346 million during an intermediate year.

The EU's net export margin is slowly narrowing

The net import reliance has remained negative throughout (indicating a net-export position), ranging from −22.0% at its widest to −10.0% at its narrowest, settling at −10.2% in 2025. The long-term trend is toward a smaller net export margin, meaning that while the EU still exports more than it imports, the gap is closing. This reflects the combined effect of rising import volumes and declining export volumes. Trade intensity rose from 13.6% to 16.2%, and export propensity edged up from 12.2% to 13.1%, suggesting that this sector's openness to international trade has gradually increased.

Geopolitical Realignment Reshapes Trade Partners

The collapse of EU exports to Russia is the single most dramatic shift

The most striking change in EU export destinations over the decade was the near-collapse of exports to the Russian Federation, which fell by 67.1%, from €35.1 million in 2015 to €11.5 million in 2025. Russia went from being a top-five destination to a marginal market. This decline accelerated sharply following 2022 and is consistent with the EU sanctions regime imposed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Export volatility to Russia was also among the highest for any destination, with a coefficient of variation of 0.38.

Western Balkan markets absorbed much of the lost Russian demand

The void left by Russia was partly filled by a striking growth of exports to Western Balkan countries:

Exports to Bosnia and Herzegovina more than doubled, while Serbia and Kosovo each roughly doubled. These countries—benefiting from EU association agreements, geographic proximity, and construction-sector growth—emerged as the EU's primary growth markets for PVC profiles. Bosnia and Herzegovina also appeared as a growing import source, with inbound trade surging from €0.3 million to €9.7 million (+2,727%), reflecting the emergence of local PVC processing capacity.

The United Kingdom remained stable post-Brexit but shifted in the import picture

EU exports to the United Kingdom were essentially flat in value (+1.9%, from €39 million to €39 million), having peaked at €53 million during the window. This stability suggests that post-Brexit trade friction has been manageable for this product category. On the import side, however, the UK became the second-largest import source, with trade growing 234.7% from €11 million to €38 million—likely reflecting re-routing of supply chains and new customs reporting patterns after Brexit.

Türkiye became the dominant import source, while Swiss trade grew on both sides

Imports from Türkiye more than doubled (+104.1%), rising from €22 million to €45 million, making it the EU's largest extra-EU supplier by value. Türkiye's competitive PVC processing industry and customs union with the EU facilitated this growth. Meanwhile, Switzerland showed a notable divergence: EU exports to Switzerland fell 29.3% (from €37 million to €26 million), while imports from Switzerland grew 152.8% (from €4 million to €9 million). This may reflect reclassification effects, transhipment, or growing Swiss processing competitiveness.

EU Production Stays Steady but Export Leadership Shifts Eastward

Domestic production volumes were remarkably stable

EU production of CN 391620 products moved from 1.19 billion kg to 1.20 billion kg over the period (+0.9%), with a range between 1.05 and 1.32 billion kg. In value terms, production grew more meaningfully from €2.82 billion to €3.10 billion (+9.9%), peaking at €3.81 billion. This pattern—stable volumes but rising values—mirrors the trade data and confirms that unit-price inflation (driven by energy, raw material, and logistics cost increases) was the dominant macroeconomic feature of this market throughout the decade.

Germany remains the EU's export powerhouse but is losing ground

Germany accounted for 55.5% of the EU's export production share in 2025, with an RCA of 2.62 and an RSCA of 0.45—both indicating strong revealed comparative advantage. Yet German export value declined 10.0% over the period, from €173 million to €155 million. In contrast, Poland more than doubled its exports (+110.0%), from €50 million to €106 million, and now holds 16.8% of the EU's production share with an RCA of 2.52.

Sweden also showed remarkable growth (+117.4%), though from a smaller base and with a low RCA (0.09), suggesting its exports may be driven by niche or re-export activity rather than deep structural specialisation. Croatia exhibited the highest RCA in the EU (3.64) but with a very small production share (1.5%), indicating a highly specialised but small-scale industry.

Export concentration is low and stable; import concentration is moderate

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index for EU exports remained low throughout (662 in 2015, 651 in 2025), confirming that the EU distributes its PVC rod and profile exports across a wide range of partners. By contrast, the import HHI was substantially higher (2,368 to 2,322), placing imports in the "moderately concentrated" category. This means that while the EU's export base is diversified and resilient, its import supply is more reliant on a smaller number of key suppliers—principally Türkiye, the UK, and China. Nevertheless, the import HHI trended slightly downward, indicating gradual diversification of import sources.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU market for PVC rods and profiles (CN 391620) was shaped by three intersecting forces. First, price inflation—driven by rising energy and raw-material costs—elevated the nominal value of both exports and imports, while underlying trade volumes told a less optimistic story: export volumes contracted and the EU's net export advantage, though still positive, narrowed. Second, geopolitical upheaval fundamentally reoriented the EU's trade geography. The sanctions-driven collapse of the Russian export market was more than compensated by the rapid growth of Western Balkan destinations, while Türkiye consolidated its position as the EU's leading import supplier and post-Brexit UK trade patterns stabilised. Third, the EU's internal production structure remained broadly stable in volume, but a notable shift occurred within the bloc: Germany, while still dominant, saw its exports decline, while Poland emerged as the principal growth engine, more than doubling its exports over the decade. Going forward, the key risks for this market lie in the continued narrowing of the net export margin, the concentration of import supply in a handful of partners, and the exposure of trade flows to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the EU's neighbourhood.