Market evolution: Plastic rods and profiles (CN 391690) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in customs code 391690 — plastic rods, sticks, profile shapes, and monofilaments (cross-section > 1 mm), excluding polymers of ethylene and vinyl chloride — over the period 2015 to 2025. CN 391690 encompasses three sub-headings: condensation/rearrangement polymerization products (39169010), addition polymerization products (39169050), and a residual "other plastics" category (39169090).

Over the decade, the EU's external trade in this product category was shaped by three interconnected dynamics: an extraordinary surge in imports — overwhelmingly driven by China — that tripled their value; a more modest but steady rise in exports that nonetheless failed to prevent a sharp erosion of the trade surplus; and a structural opening of the European market that increased its integration into global supply chains while heightening concentration risk. The sections that follow unpack each of these trends in detail.

1. The China Effect — A Structural Reorientation of EU Import Flows

Overall EU imports more than tripled in value

Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of CN 391690 grew from €134.8 million to €396.4 million (+194.1%), while import volumes rose from 26,621 tonnes to 62,640 tonnes (+135.3%). Trade overview Import prices also climbed, from an average of €5,063/t to €6,328/t (+25.0%), but the bulk of the value increase was volume-driven. This import surge was not evenly distributed: it was overwhelmingly concentrated in a single supplier.

China's rise to dominance reshaped the supplier landscape

The single most striking feature of the period is the rise of China as the EU's overwhelmingly dominant import source. Top partners Chinese imports surged from €17.2 million in 2015 to €211.9 million in 2025, an increase of 1,132%. China's share of total EU imports thus rose from roughly 13% to over 53% in a single decade.

Several factors likely explain China's ascent: competitive pricing (Chinese import prices were consistently below the EU average), scale economies in Chinese plastic processing, and EU demand growth that outpaced domestic production capacity. Notably, the United States — the leading import source in 2015 — grew only modestly and was overtaken by China as early as 2017–2018.

Within the EU, the gateway for Chinese imports was primarily the Netherlands, whose imports exploded from €8.1 million to €128.1 million (+1,490%), and Belgium, which rose from €11.1 million to €51.7 million (+366%). Top reporters These two countries — home to the ports of Rotterdam and Antwerp — function as the primary entry points for Asian goods into the European market.

Import concentration rose sharply, raising dependency concerns

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by partner country rose from 2,123 to 3,261 (by value) and from 2,076 to 3,835 (by volume). Concentration An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered indicative of a highly concentrated market; the 2025 values signal substantial supplier concentration. This was driven almost entirely by China's growing market share, effectively transforming the EU's import base from a diversified structure to one dominated by a single country.

The import sub-segments tell a consistent story. The "other plastics" category (39169090) — the largest by far — saw imports surge from 18,075 tonnes / €68.8 million to 46,767 tonnes / €294.3 million. Product segments Condensation polymer products (39169010) also grew strongly, from 4,058 tonnes / €25.8 million to 11,730 tonnes / €76.3 million. By contrast, addition polymerization products (39169050) remained essentially flat in volume (4,488 → 4,109 tonnes) and saw their value decline from €40.1 million to €25.6 million (−36.2%).

2. A Resilient Export Base Under Growing Competitive Pressure

EU exports grew steadily but far more slowly than imports

EU exports of CN 391690 rose from €354.4 million in 2015 to €508.8 million in 2025 (+43.6%), with volumes increasing more modestly from 42,443 to 46,352 tonnes (+9.2%). Trade overview The relatively stronger value growth reflects significant price appreciation: average export prices rose from €8,350/t to €10,973/t (+31.4%), suggesting that the EU increasingly competed on quality and specialisation rather than volume.

A notable price differential persisted throughout the period: EU export prices were consistently 60–75% higher than import prices (€10,973/t vs. €6,328/t in 2025), indicating that the EU specialised in higher-value segments of this product category.

Export destinations showed divergent trajectories

The top export partners reveal a mature market with significant reorientation:

The United Kingdom remained the single largest export market but was essentially flat in value, reflecting post-Brexit trade frictions. Morocco recorded the fastest growth (+183.6%), likely reflecting nearshoring dynamics and the country's role as a manufacturing platform for re-export to the EU.

The most dramatic decline was in exports to Russia (−55.3%), which fell from €18.9 million to €8.4 million. This decline, concentrated in 2022–2023, is consistent with the impact of EU sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine and Belarus — also affected by the conflict — show elevated volatility in export flows. Volatility

Germany anchors EU production, but output barely kept pace with demand

EU domestic production of CN 391690 grew in value from €885 million to €1,410 million (+59.3%) but only marginally in volume (230,572 tonnes to 236,000 tonnes, +2.4%). This divergence — soaring production value against essentially flat volumes — mirrors the broader inflation in raw material and energy costs that characterised the period, particularly after 2021.

Germany dominated EU production and exports, accounting for €248.6 million of the EU's €508.8 million in exports in 2025 (48.8%). Top reporters Other significant exporters included Italy (€46.8M), Belgium (€48.0M), and the Netherlands (€23.8M). The Netherlands (+339%) and Slovakia (+216%) recorded the most rapid export growth among EU member states.

The trade surplus narrowed significantly

The EU's trade surplus in CN 391690 shrank from €219.6 million in 2015 to €112.4 million in 2025, a decline of 48.8%. Trade overview At the current trajectory, the surplus could be fully eroded within the next decade if import growth continues to outpace export growth.

Yet in relative terms, the EU's net import reliance (measured against domestic production) moved from −6.2% to −14.0%, meaning the EU remained a net exporter relative to its own production base, and indeed deepened this status. This apparent paradox — a shrinking absolute surplus but a deepening relative export orientation — reflects the substantial growth in EU production value (€885M → €1,410M), which expanded the denominator faster than the surplus contracted.

3. A More Interconnected yet More Vulnerable European Market

Trade intensity and export propensity surged

The most striking structural shift over the decade was the dramatic increase in the EU's openness to trade in this product category. Trade intensity — the ratio of (imports + exports) to (production + imports − exports) — rose from 18.3% to 48.0% (+162.5%). Export propensity — exports as a share of production — climbed from 12.7% to 35.8% (+182.2%).

This means the European market for CN 391690 became nearly three times more trade-exposed over the decade. While this reflects deeper integration into global value chains, it also implies greater sensitivity to external supply disruptions, exchange-rate fluctuations, and trade policy changes.

Specialisation patterns reveal a core-periphery structure

In 2025, EU export specialisation in CN 391690 was highly uneven across member states:

Germany, with a revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of 1.59 and a 33.6% share of EU production, anchors the sector. The high specialisation scores of Slovakia and Finland — despite their smaller absolute shares — suggest niche industrial strengths, possibly linked to automotive profiles (Slovakia) or forestry-related plastic products (Finland). Conversely, the Mediterranean and newer member states are effectively absent from this export market.

Import concentration created new vulnerability, while export markets diversified

A striking asymmetry characterises the concentration dynamics: import concentration rose sharply while export concentration declined.

The import HHI entering the "highly concentrated" zone (>2,500) is a policy-relevant finding. It indicates that the EU's exposure to a single supplier (China) has crossed a threshold that could warrant attention in the context of supply chain resilience strategies. By contrast, the declining export HHI (from 822 to 737) indicates that EU exporters successfully diversified their customer base.

Price volatility and supply shocks marked the 2021–2022 period

The volatility analysis reveals that import flows were considerably more volatile than export flows. Chinese imports showed a coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.77, the highest among major partners, while the most stable import sources were the United States (CV 0.09) and Switzerland (CV 0.11). On the export side, flows to the United Kingdom (CV 0.11) and Switzerland (CV 0.07) were the most stable, while Russia (CV 0.42) and Belarus (CV 0.37) — both affected by sanctions — showed the highest volatility.

The supply shock analysis detected three significant events:

The most notable shock was the 51.5% price spike in EU exports to the United States in 2022, which affected a flow representing 16.3% of total export value. This coincided with the post-COVID supply chain disruptions and surging energy costs in Europe, which likely passed through into higher export prices. The Bosnian import price shock in 2021 — an 18.4% decline — may reflect a one-off competitive pricing event from a small supplier.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in CN 391690 over 2015–2025 tells a story of deepening globalisation accompanied by rising dependency. Imports nearly tripled in value, driven overwhelmingly by China, whose share of EU imports grew from 13% to over half. This transformed the import market from a diversified structure into a highly concentrated one. EU exports, anchored by Germany, proved resilient — growing 44% in value and reaching higher-value market segments — but could not keep pace with the import surge, resulting in a halving of the trade surplus from €220 million to €112 million.

At the same time, the European market became dramatically more open: trade intensity nearly tripled, and export propensity almost quintupled relative to production. This deeper integration brought efficiency gains and expanded market access for EU producers, but also heightened exposure to supply disruptions, geopolitical risks, and pricing shocks — as the 2022 energy crisis and sanctions-driven reorientation of flows toward and away from Russia demonstrated.

Looking ahead, the central question for this sector is whether the EU can rebalance its import dependencies — particularly vis-à-vis China — while maintaining the export competitiveness that has allowed it to sustain a positive, if narrowing, trade balance. The growing gap between import and export prices (€6,328/t vs. €10,973/t in 2025) suggests the EU retains a strong comparative advantage in higher-value product segments, but the sheer scale of Chinese import growth poses a structural challenge that is unlikely to dissipate without deliberate policy responses.