Market evolution: Plastic sheets (CN 3920) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in customs code 3920 — plates, sheets, film, foil and strip of non-cellular plastics, not reinforced, laminated or similarly combined with other materials, excluding self-adhesive products and floor/wall/ceiling coverings (heading 3918). The analysis covers annual data from 2015 to 2025 and is based on trade data from the Trade Dashboard.

Over this period, the EU plastic sheets market experienced a fundamental shift: import growth far outpaced export growth, eroding the EU's historically positive trade balance. At the same time, geopolitical shocks — most notably the sanctions imposed on Russia after 2022 — reshaped trade routes, while a sharp 2022 price spike across nearly all partners marked the most severe episode of cost volatility in the decade. The report is structured around three main findings.

1. A Shrinking Surplus: The EU's Structural Shift from Net Exporter toward Import Dependence

Trade value trajectories diverge significantly

The EU entered 2015 with a healthy trade surplus of €1.32 billion in plastic sheets. By 2025, this surplus had narrowed to just €763 million — a decline of 42.1%. The driver is unmistakable: imports grew by 36.0% in value (from €3.98 billion to €5.41 billion), while exports grew by only 16.6% (from €5.30 billion to €6.17 billion).

Import volumes surge while export volumes stall

The divergence becomes even more pronounced when examining physical quantities. Import volumes rose by 38.0% — from 1,281,262 tonnes in 2015 to 1,767,629 tonnes in 2025 — suggesting genuine growth in demand met by foreign suppliers. Meanwhile, export volumes actually declined by 2.4% over the same period (from 1,641,781 t to 1,601,759 t).

Price dynamics reinforce the pattern

Export unit values increased by 19.5% (from €3,226/t to €3,855/t), meaning EU producers commanded higher prices abroad. However, import prices fell by 1.4% (from €3,106/t to €3,061/t), indicating that foreign suppliers remained cost-competitive despite inflationary pressures. This price gap suggests EU production faces higher cost structures, which may partly explain the volume stagnation in exports and the appetite for imports.

Net import reliance moves closer to balance

The net import reliance ratio improved from −8.5% in 2015 to −3.4% in 2025 (a change of +59.8%). A negative value indicates a net exporter position, so the EU remains a net exporter — but the trajectory is one of rapid convergence toward balance. If current trends persist, the EU could become a net importer of plastic sheets within the coming years.

2. The Russia Shock and the Reconfiguration of EU Trade Partners

Russia's collapse as an export destination

The single most dramatic structural change in EU plastic sheet trade is the near-total disappearance of exports to the Russian Federation. In 2015, Russia was the fifth-largest export destination, absorbing €373 million in EU plastic sheets. By 2025, exports had collapsed to just €2.4 million — a decline of 99.3%. This reflects the cumulative impact of EU sanctions packages imposed from 2022 onward in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Export volatility concentrated in disrupted routes

The coefficient of variation data confirms that Russia and its neighbourhood introduced the highest instability into EU trade flows:

• Russian Federation exports: CV = 0.56 (the highest among export partners)
• India exports: CV = 0.38
• Ukraine exports: CV = 0.26

For imports, Russia also shows extreme volatility (CV = 0.75), though from a smaller base. Other import sources with high variability include Egypt (CV = 0.34) and China (CV = 0.34).

Growing reliance on Türkiye and China as import suppliers

While the export side saw a contraction in Russian trade, the import side witnessed rapid growth from several key partners. The top import partners show striking growth trajectories:

China stands out with the fastest growth rate (+157.1%), while Türkiye nearly doubled its exports to the EU and is now the single largest non-EU import source by value (€1.01 billion). The UK, which was the largest import partner in 2015, saw only marginal growth (+2.8%), likely reflecting the combined effects of post-Brexit trade friction and reorientation toward more cost-competitive suppliers.

The 2022 price shock

The data reveals a pronounced price shock in 2022 across virtually all major partners. Detected shock events include:

• Switzerland imports: +26.1% price shift in 2022 (abnormality score 7.0)
• Canada exports: +36.6% price shift in 2022 (abnormality score 6.4)
• Türkiye imports: +27.8% price shift in 2022 (abnormality score 4.4)

These price spikes coincided with the global energy crisis and supply chain disruptions that followed the outbreak of war in Ukraine, which affected petrochemical feedstock costs and logistics networks across the plastic industry.

3. Production Growth, Concentration, and the EU's Evolving Competitive Position

Domestic production expanded substantially in volume and value

Despite the trade balance erosion, the EU's domestic production of plastic sheets grew significantly over the period:

The fact that production value grew nearly three times faster than quantity (+66.8% vs. +24.7%) points to substantial value inflation — both from higher raw material costs and from a shift toward higher-value product segments. Production peaked at 12.06 billion kg and €31.70 billion at some point during the period, suggesting 2025 output may represent a cyclical softening.

Export propensity and trade intensity both increased markedly

Despite the trade balance deterioration, EU producers became more outward-oriented. Export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — rose from 17.4% to 24.0% (+37.7%). Trade intensity — the combined share of exports and imports relative to production — increased from 24.7% to 37.1% (+50.1%).

These rising ratios indicate that the EU plastic sheet market has become significantly more integrated into global trade flows over the decade. The EU remains a net exporter, but its economy is increasingly open to — and dependent on — international supply chains for this product category.

Regional specialisation patterns within the EU

Analysis of revealed comparative advantage in 2025 identifies clear patterns of specialisation within the EU:

Most specialised members (highest RSCA):

Least specialised members (lowest RSCA):

Notably, smaller or peripheral EU economies (Portugal, Croatia, Lithuania, Bulgaria) show the strongest export specialisation in plastic sheets, while larger service-oriented economies (Ireland) and island states (Cyprus, Malta) show the weakest. The traditional industrial powerhouses — Germany, Italy, France — dominate in absolute terms (Germany alone accounts for over €2.2 billion in exports) but are not among the most specialised.

Polyethylene and polypropylene sheets dominate trade flows

At the product sub-heading level, polyethylene sheets (CN 392010) are by far the largest traded segment on both the import and export sides:

The EU is a net exporter of PE sheets and PVC sheets but a net importer of PET sheets (323 kt imported vs. 157 kt exported) and PMMA sheets. The heavy import dependence on PET is consistent with global overcapacity in PET production, particularly in Asia and the Middle East.

Import concentration has shifted toward higher partner concentration

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value increased from 1,106 in 2015 to 1,129 in 2025, while the volume-based HHI rose more sharply from 947 to 1,162 (+22.8%). This indicates that import supply has become somewhat more concentrated, with fewer partners accounting for larger shares — driven primarily by the rise of Türkiye and China.

By contrast, the export HHI declined from 979 to 906 (−7.5%), suggesting that EU export destinations have become more diversified — a positive development from a risk perspective, particularly as the loss of the Russian market forced exporters to find alternative routes.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU plastic sheets market (CN 3920) underwent a significant structural transformation. While the EU remains a net exporter, its trade surplus narrowed by 42.1% as import volumes grew nearly 38% while export volumes contracted marginally. This shift is driven by increasing competitiveness from Türkiye and China, which together now account for over €1.8 billion in annual imports, and by persistent cost differentials that favour foreign suppliers.

The most disruptive single event was the collapse of trade with Russia following the 2022 sanctions, which eliminated a €373 million annual export market almost overnight and forced EU exporters to diversify their destination portfolio — successfully, as evidenced by declining export concentration. The 2022 energy crisis also triggered a severe price shock across most trade relationships, with unit values spiking 25–35% in a single year before partially retreating.

Looking at the broader picture, domestic EU production has expanded substantially (+24.7% in volume, +66.8% in value), and the sector has become significantly more trade-intense (trade intensity rose from 24.7% to 37.1%). However, the continued rise in import reliance and the erosion of the trade surplus suggest that the EU's competitive position in this commodity segment is under increasing pressure — a trend that will likely be shaped by energy costs, environmental regulation, and the evolving global overcapacity in key polymer sub-segments such as PET.