Market evolution: Polyethylene film (CN 392020) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in polyethylene film (CN 392020) over the 2015–2025 period. CN 392020 covers plates, sheets, film, foil and strip of non-cellular polymers of ethylene — a broad category encompassing a wide range of packaging and industrial films that are fundamental to modern supply chains.

Over the decade, the EU's position in this market has undergone a structural transformation. What was once a comfortable trade surplus has eroded into a deficit, driven by surging imports that have far outpaced the growth in exports. At the same time, the geopolitical landscape of trade partners has been redrawn — most dramatically by the collapse of trade with Russia and the rapid ascent of Türkiye and China as suppliers. These macro shifts have unfolded against a backdrop of rising prices, changing product-mix dynamics, and growing trade intensity.

The analysis below is organised around three main themes: the erosion of the EU's net exporter position, the geopolitical reorientation of trade partners, and the structural and price dynamics within product sub-segments.

1. The Erosion of the EU's Net Exporter Position

Import growth has vastly outpaced export growth

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU imports of CN 392020 grew by 40.3% in value, rising from €814 million to €1,142 million. Over the same period, exports grew by a mere 2.9%, from €1,038 million to €1,067 million — barely keeping pace with inflation. In volume terms, the divergence is even more striking: import quantities rose by 25.1% (from 303,486 to 379,552 tonnes) while export quantities actually declined by 6.7% (from 327,477 to 305,559 tonnes).

The trade balance has flipped from surplus to deficit

The EU's trade balance in polyethylene film has undergone a complete reversal over the decade. In 2015, the EU recorded a surplus of €224 million, which peaked at approximately €360 million in an intermediate year before declining steadily. By 2025, the balance had turned negative at −€75 million, representing a cumulative swing of roughly €300 million.

This shift is corroborated by the net import reliance indicator, which moved from −18.3% in 2015 to −1.6% in 2025 (where negative values indicate net exporter status). While the EU remains a marginal net exporter by this measure, the trajectory is unmistakable: the gap between domestic production and external demand has narrowed dramatically.

Domestic production has grown strongly, but not enough to sustain the surplus

EU production of polyethylene film grew by 54.0% in volume (from 937,000 to 1,443,000 tonnes) and by 85.5% in value (from €2.25 billion to €4.17 billion) over the period. These are substantial increases suggesting robust domestic capacity expansion. However, trade intensity — the ratio of trade (imports + exports) to domestic output — rose from 34.7% to 41.6%, indicating that the EU market has become more open and integrated with global supply chains. Export propensity, by contrast, remained nearly flat at around 27%, suggesting that the additional production was absorbed primarily by growing domestic demand rather than redirected to export markets.

Rising unit values reflect cost pressures and shifting product mix

Average export prices rose by 10.2% (from €3,168 to €3,492 per tonne), while import prices increased by 12.2% (from €2,682 to €3,010 per tonne). EU exports have consistently commanded a price premium over imports (€3,492 vs. €3,010 in 2025), which may reflect higher-value product specialisation or logistics advantages. However, the faster growth of import prices narrowed this gap over the period.

2. Geopolitical Realignment of Trade Partners

Russia's collapse is the single most dramatic partner shift

The most striking geopolitical development in the CN 392020 market has been the near-total disappearance of Russia as an EU trading partner. EU imports from Russia fell by 99.7%, from €34 million in 2015 to just €93,000 in 2025. EU exports to Russia declined by 78.3%, from €94 million to €20 million. This collapse, concentrated in the 2022–2023 period, reflects the impact of EU sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The withdrawal of Russia as a supplier contributed to a rise in import concentration, with the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) increasing by 32.3% as remaining suppliers absorbed Russia's former market share.

Türkiye has emerged as the EU's dominant import source

Türkiye has become by far the largest supplier of polyethylene film to the EU, with import values growing by 92.2% — from €191 million in 2015 to €368 million in 2025. By 2025, Türkiye alone accounted for nearly one-third of all EU imports of this product, up from roughly one-quarter in 2015. This growth reflects both Türkiye's competitive cost structure and its geographic proximity to EU markets. The relationship is bidirectional: EU exports to Türkiye also grew by 30.6%, reaching €105 million in 2025, suggesting a pattern of intra-industry trade.

China's import presence has more than tripled

EU imports from China surged by 162.8% over the period, rising from €38 million to €99 million. China's coefficient of variation in import values (0.43) is among the highest of the EU's main import partners, reflecting pronounced year-to-year swings. A notable price shock was detected in 2021, when import unit values from China jumped by 39.3%, likely linked to post-pandemic supply chain disruptions and surging raw material costs.

EU export markets have diversified away from the United Kingdom

On the export side, the EU's traditional reliance on the United Kingdom as its primary market has weakened. Exports to the UK fell by 24.9%, from €298 million to €224 million — likely reflecting post-Brexit trade friction. Meanwhile, exports to the United States nearly doubled (+93.3%) from €59 million to €115 million, and exports to Ukraine surged by 170.4% from €23 million to €63 million. This geographic reorientation is reflected in a declining export concentration HHI, which fell by 26.8%, indicating that the EU's export base has become more diversified over the decade.

EU member states show divergent import and export trajectories

Within the EU, import growth has been concentrated in southern member states. Spain's imports nearly doubled (+91.9%, from €58 million to €111 million), and Italy's grew by 60.3% (from €119 million to €192 million). On the export side, Germany remains the dominant EU exporter at €363 million (up 8.7%), while Belgium experienced a striking decline of 68.7% (from €162 million to €51 million) — a loss of over €110 million that warrants further investigation. The Netherlands emerged as a faster-growing exporter (+52.0%).

3. Sub-Segment Divergence: Product Composition and Price Dynamics

The thin, biaxially oriented segment dominates but shows divergent trajectories

The product segment breakdown reveals that the thin, biaxially oriented sub-segment (CN 39202021, thickness ≤ 0.10 mm) accounts for the largest share of both imports and exports. However, the trajectories are sharply divergent:

The thin, biaxially oriented segment — which constitutes over half of all trade in this product — saw EU export volumes decline by 24.2% even as import volumes grew by 15.7%. This single sub-segment is the primary driver behind the overall trade balance erosion. EU producers of this core product appear to be losing ground in foreign markets while simultaneously facing growing import competition at home.

Thicker films represent the fastest-growing import category

The thicker-film sub-segment (CN 39202080, > 0.10 mm) has been the fastest-growing import category, with volumes rising by 69.9% from 39,000 to 66,000 tonnes. Import prices in this segment actually declined slightly (from €3,700 to €3,553 per tonne), suggesting that price-competitive foreign suppliers are gaining market share. On the export side, this sub-segment performed more robustly, with volumes up 37.6% and prices rising from €3,444 to €3,640 per tonne. This thicker-film category may offer EU producers a more defensible competitive position.

Price shocks have been concentrated in the post-pandemic period

Volatility analysis reveals that the most volatile import partnerships involve the United Arab Emirates (CV 0.78), Russia (0.45), and China (0.43), reflecting either small volumes with large swings or genuine supply instability. On the export side, Ukraine (CV 0.55), India (0.47), and Algeria (0.42) show the highest volatility.

Three significant price shocks were detected during the period:

• Algeria (exports, 2021): A +29.5% price shift with an abnormality score of 21.5, affecting 3.1% of export value — likely related to post-pandemic demand recovery in North Africa.
• China (imports, 2021): A +39.3% price increase with an abnormality of 14.0, affecting 8.1% of import value — consistent with global commodity price surges and supply chain disruptions during the same period.
• Ukraine (exports, 2023): A −22.4% price drop with an abnormality of 9.6, affecting 4.2% of export value — potentially linked to wartime trade disruptions and reconfigured logistics.

Specialisation patterns reveal structural asymmetries within the EU

Revealed comparative advantage analysis for 2025 shows that Portugal (RSCA 0.77), Bulgaria (0.76), and Italy (0.39) are among the most specialised EU exporters of polyethylene film, while large economies like Germany and France, despite being major exporters in absolute terms, do not display strong specialisation. At the other end, countries like Cyprus (RSCA −0.99), Ireland (−0.96), and Sweden (−0.86) are net importers with minimal domestic production, relying heavily on intra-EU or external suppliers. These asymmetries suggest that production capacity and export competitiveness are unevenly distributed across the Union.

Conclusion

The EU's polyethylene film market (CN 392020) has undergone a fundamental transformation over the 2015–2025 decade. The most consequential shift has been the erosion of the EU's net exporter position: a trade surplus of €224 million in 2015 became a deficit of €75 million in 2025, driven by imports that grew more than ten times faster than exports in value terms.

This deterioration has occurred despite a 54% increase in domestic production, suggesting that demand growth — partly fuelled by expanding packaging needs and a trade intensity rising to 41.6% — has outstripped the EU's ability to serve both its own market and maintain export volumes simultaneously. The decline has been most acute in the thin, biaxially oriented film segment (CN 39202021), where export volumes fell by 24% while imports rose by 16%.

Geopolitically, the market has been reshaped by the near-total collapse of Russia as a trading partner (−99.7% on the import side), the rapid growth of Türkiye as the EU's dominant supplier (€368 million, +92%), and the near-doubling of China's import presence. On the export side, the EU has diversified away from the UK toward the US and Ukraine, reducing export concentration by 27%.

Looking ahead, the key structural question is whether EU producers can reverse the export decline in their core product segment and whether the growing import penetration — particularly from cost-competitive Turkish and Chinese suppliers — will continue to erode the EU's trade position. Price volatility, amplified by geopolitical disruptions and post-pandemic supply chain adjustments, adds a further layer of uncertainty to this outlook.