Market evolution: Plasticised PVC sheets (CN 392043) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the trade dynamics of plasticised PVC sheets, plates, film, foil and strip (Combined Nomenclature code 392043) within the European Union's external trade over the period 2015–2025. The product encompasses non-cellular polymers of vinyl chloride containing at least 6% plasticisers by weight, excluding self-adhesive products and floor/wall/ceiling coverings. It is further split into two sub-segments: thin films of 1 mm or less (39204310) and thicker sheets above 1 mm (39204390).
The EU remains a net exporter of plasticised PVC sheets, but the decade has been marked by a significant erosion of that position. Total export value hovered near €312 million in 2015 and remained at roughly €306 million by 2025—a modest −2.0% decline in nominal terms—while export volumes contracted sharply by −35.0%, from approximately 96,000 tonnes to 62,400 tonnes. Meanwhile, imports surged in both value (+34.4% to €183 million) and volume (+52.2% to 66,900 tonnes), narrowing the trade surplus from €176 million to €123 million. Domestic production volumes also fell by −22.1%, even as production values rose by +39.8%, reflecting a broader shift toward higher-priced, potentially higher-value-added output. The following sections unpack these trends in detail.
1. Shrinking Surplus: The Diverging Paths of Exports and Imports
1.1 EU exports held up in value but collapsed in volume
EU external exports of plasticised PVC sheets declined only marginally in value—from €312 million in 2015 to €306 million in 2025 (−2.0%)—but this headline figure masks a dramatic 35% fall in export volumes, from 96,004 tonnes down to 62,403 tonnes. This was entirely offset—and then some—by a +50.8% rise in unit export prices, from €3,247/t to €4,896/t. The EU thus shipped substantially less material at significantly higher prices, a pattern consistent with a shift toward higher-specification products or the pass-through of elevated raw material and energy costs.
The trough in export value came in 2020 (€263 million), coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by a recovery to the period's maximum of €350 million in 2022—a year of intense commodity price inflation.
1.2 Import growth has been structurally strong
Imports tell a strikingly different story. EU imports grew from €136 million (43,924 tonnes) in 2015 to €183 million (66,863 tonnes) in 2025—a +34.4% increase in value and a +52.2% increase in volume. Import volumes set a new record each year from 2023 onward, reaching 66,863 tonnes in 2025. Unlike exports, import unit prices fell by −11.7% over the period (from €3,092/t to €2,729/t), suggesting that importers have increasingly sourced from lower-cost producers, particularly in Asia and Türkiye.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2020 | 2022 | 2025 | Δ 2015→2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exports value (€M) | 311.8 | 263.5 | 349.8 | 305.6 | −2.0% |
| Exports volume (kt) | 96.0 | 79.1* | 73.7 | 62.4 | −35.0% |
| Exports price (€/t) | 3,247 | 3,006* | 4,896* | 4,896 | +50.8% |
| Imports value (€M) | 135.8 | 133.4* | 222.2* | 182.5 | +34.4% |
| Imports volume (kt) | 43.9 | 49.0* | 65.6* | 66.9 | +52.2% |
| Imports price (€/t) | 3,092 | 2,673* | 3,388* | 2,729 | −11.7% |
| Trade balance (€M) | 176.0 | — | — | 123.1 | −30.1% |
*Values derived from the data window min/max and first/last figures; intermediate years are available in the full dashboard.
1.3 The thin-film segment drives most of the trade in both directions
A breakdown by sub-product reveals that the thin-film segment (39204310, ≤ 1 mm) accounts for the lion's share of trade. On the export side, thin films represented 76,000–85,000 tonnes annually in the first half of the period before declining to around 50,000 tonnes by 2025. On the import side, thin-film imports nearly doubled, from 23,312 tonnes to 43,528 tonnes. The thicker segment (39204390, > 1 mm) saw more modest changes: exports fell from 23,295 to 12,059 tonnes, while imports remained broadly flat at around 21,000–23,000 tonnes, with a spike to 30,972 tonnes in 2022.
| Segment | Flow | 2015 (kt) | 2025 (kt) | Δ | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39204310 (≤ 1 mm) | Imports | 23.3 | 43.5 | +86.7% | 91.5 | 122.0 | +33.4% |
| 39204390 (> 1 mm) | Imports | 20.6 | 23.3 | +13.2% | 44.3 | 60.5 | +36.6% |
| 39204310 (≤ 1 mm) | Exports | 72.7 | 50.3 | −30.8% | 257.9 | 261.6 | +1.4% |
| 39204390 (> 1 mm) | Exports | 23.3 | 12.1 | −48.2% | 53.8 | 44.0 | −18.3% |
The result is that the EU's traditional trade surplus in plasticised PVC sheets is being steadily eroded, driven in particular by surging imports of thin-film products that compete directly with EU output.
2. A Reconfigured Partner Map: From Mature Markets to Emerging Suppliers
2.1 China and Türkiye have become the dominant import suppliers
The most striking change in the partner composition of EU imports is the ascent of China and Türkiye. Chinese imports surged from €21 million in 2015 to €57 million in 2025 (+172.6%), making China the EU's single largest import source. Türkiye's rise was even more dramatic in relative terms: from €9 million to €30 million (+234.4%), though its peak was even higher at €54 million in 2022. Both countries benefit from lower production costs and, in Türkiye's case, geographic proximity and a Customs Union arrangement with the EU.
| Import Partner | 2015 (€M) | 2022 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Δ 2015→2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 20.8 | — | 56.8 | +172.6% |
| Türkiye | 9.0 | 54.2* | 30.0 | +234.4% |
| United Kingdom | 29.1 | — | 26.4 | −9.3% |
| Switzerland | 17.4 | — | 20.7 | +18.9% |
| United States | 11.0 | — | 15.2 | +37.6% |
| Taiwan | 9.4 | — | 5.6 | −40.6% |
| Japan | 13.2 | — | 7.5 | −42.8% |
*Peak value for Türkiye during the period.
Meanwhile, traditional suppliers like Japan and Taiwan saw their share decline significantly (−42.8% and −40.6% respectively), suggesting a reallocation of sourcing toward lower-cost Asian and near-shore producers. The UK, a historically important supplier, saw only a modest decline of −9.3%, largely reflecting the post-Brexit trade reconfiguration rather than a loss of competitiveness.
2.2 Export destinations have shifted away from Russia and the Middle East
On the export side, the most dramatic change was the collapse of EU exports to Russia, from €27 million in 2015 to €12 million in 2025 (−55.3%). This decline accelerated sharply after 2022 following the imposition of EU sanctions. The United Arab Emirates saw an even steeper proportional fall (−80.2%), from €7.8 million to just €1.5 million.
| Export Partner | 2015 (€M) | 2022 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Δ 2015→2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 103.7 | — | 85.5 | −17.5% |
| Türkiye | 40.0 | — | 60.5 | +51.3% |
| United States | 22.9 | — | 44.0 | +92.2% |
| Russian Federation | 26.5 | — | 11.9 | −55.3% |
| Colombia | 7.7 | — | 6.8 | −11.1% |
| United Arab Emirates | 7.8 | — | 1.5 | −80.2% |
| Switzerland | 8.9 | — | 9.1 | +2.1% |
Countering these losses, the US became a much larger buyer (+92.2% to €44 million), and Türkiye—already a major export destination—grew by +51.3% to €60.5 million. This bilateral dynamic (the EU exports to and imports from Türkiye at scale) suggests a deeply integrated, possibly intra-industry trade relationship in plasticised PVC products.
2.3 Germany dominates EU production and exports, but Italian imports surged
Within the EU, Germany remains the largest exporter by far, with export values rising from €141 million to €167 million (+18.8%). France and Italy, the second and third largest exporters, both saw declines of around −22–24%. On the import side, Italy stands out with a remarkable +205.7% increase (from €11 million to €35 million), suggesting growing import penetration in one of the EU's major manufacturing economies. Spain also showed strong import growth (+81.5%).
| EU Reporter | Exports 2015 (€M) | Exports 2025 (€M) | Δ | Imports 2015 (€M) | Imports 2025 (€M) | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 140.6 | 167.0 | +18.8% | 28.4 | 16.6 | −41.5% |
| France | 46.4 | 36.4 | −21.6% | 22.2 | 31.0 | +39.5% |
| Italy | 47.9 | 36.6 | −23.6% | 11.5 | 35.1 | +205.7% |
| Netherlands | 27.6 | 23.1 | −16.3% | 9.3 | 15.4 | +66.0% |
| Spain | 12.5 | 15.4 | +23.2% | 6.5 | 11.8 | +81.5% |
3. Prices, Shocks and the Changing Structure of Production
3.1 EU production volumes have declined while values have risen
Perhaps the most telling indicator of structural change lies in EU domestic production. Production quantity fell by −22.1% from 550,296 tonnes to 428,762 tonnes over the period, reaching its lowest point in 2025. At the same time, production value increased by +39.8% from €1.40 billion to €1.95 billion. This divergence—less volume at higher value—is consistent with EU producers moving up the value chain, focusing on higher-margin or higher-specification products while ceding commodity-grade output to foreign competitors.
| Production Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quantity (kt) | 550.3 | 428.8 | −22.1% |
| Value (€M) | 1,395.8 | 1,950.9 | +39.8% |
| Implied unit value (€/t) | ~2,536 | ~4,550 | +79.4% |
3.2 The 2022 commodity price shock left a lasting mark
The year 2022 stands out as a period of acute price dislocation. The most notable shock was detected in EU imports from Switzerland, where an abnormality index of 21.8 coincided with a +49.6% price shift in 2022. EU exports to the United States also showed a sharp price spike (abnormality 7.0, +53.4% shift), as did exports to Chile (abnormality 13.6, +42.6%). These shocks are broadly consistent with the global energy and petrochemical price surge triggered by the Russia–Ukraine conflict, which pushed up PVC feedstock costs across the board.
After 2022, prices partially corrected: EU export prices stabilised near €4,900/t through 2025, while import prices fell back to €2,729/t—below their 2015 level. This price gap between exports and imports widened considerably (from ~€155/t to ~€2,167/t), underscoring the growing differentiation between the premium EU-produced product and lower-cost imports.
3.3 Import concentration has increased sharply, raising supply-chain considerations
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value rose from 1,227 to 1,707 (+39.0%), while the volume-based HHI surged from 1,372 to 2,352 (+71.4%). Both remain below the 2,500 threshold generally associated with a "highly concentrated" market, but the rapid increase signals growing reliance on a smaller number of supply sources—chiefly China and Türkiye. By contrast, export concentration remained broadly stable (HHI of ~1,452 by value, −1.3%), indicating that EU exporters have maintained a diversified customer base.
The net import reliance indicator, while still negative (confirming net exporter status), moved from −12.7% to −7.9% over the period, a +37.4% shift toward zero. Export propensity also declined from 18.8% to 16.6%, and trade intensity edged down from 24.4% to 23.6%. Together, these metrics suggest a market that is gradually becoming less outward-oriented and more exposed to competitive imports—a structural vulnerability that warrants monitoring, particularly given the concentration of import sourcing.
Conclusion
The EU market for plasticised PVC sheets (CN 392043) underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. While the bloc remained a net exporter, its trade surplus narrowed by €53 million (−30%) as import volumes surged by over 50% and export volumes contracted by 35%. The trade dynamics were shaped by three converging forces: (1) a massive shift in sourcing toward lower-cost suppliers, particularly China and Türkiye, which together now account for a dominant share of EU imports; (2) a reorientation of EU export markets away from Russia and the Middle East, with the US and Türkiye absorbing much of the redirected flow; and (3) a structural decline in EU production volumes, offset by rising unit values that suggest a move toward higher-value-added output.
The 2022 energy price shock amplified these trends, temporarily inflating prices across all trade flows but disproportionately affecting import prices, which subsequently corrected more sharply than export prices. The growing price wedge between EU exports (~€4,900/t) and imports (~€2,700/t) hints at increasing product differentiation—or, put differently, at EU producers retreating from commodity-grade competition.
Looking ahead, the rising concentration of import supply sources (HHI up 39–71% depending on the metric) and the steady decline in export propensity point to an EU market that is becoming more dependent on external suppliers for standard-grade plasticised PVC films and sheets. Policymakers and industry stakeholders may wish to monitor these trends closely, particularly in the context of supply-chain resilience considerations and the EU's broader industrial competitiveness agenda.