Market evolution: Polyester film (CN 392062) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in plates, sheets, film, foil and strip of non-cellular polyethylene terephthalate (PET) — customs code 392062 — over the period 2015 to 2025. The EU market for this versatile material, widely used in packaging, electronics and industrial applications, is characterized by significant intra-EU production alongside a persistent and growing dependence on imports from non-EU partners. Overall, the decade saw expanding trade volumes and values, shifting partnerships, and notable price volatility driven by global supply chain disruptions.

1. The EU's Structural Dependence on Imported PET Film

A defining feature of the EU's PET film market over the reviewed period is its persistent and growing deficit, indicating a structural reliance on imports to meet domestic demand.

1.1 The widening trade deficit

The EU consistently maintained a trade deficit in PET film (CN 392062) throughout the period. In value terms, the deficit widened from approximately €202.5 million in 2015 to €240.7 million in 2025, an increase of nearly 19% General Overview. This deficit was driven by imports growing faster than exports over the decade.

1.2 Increasing import reliance despite export growth

Both sides of the trade ledger expanded. EU exports of PET film grew by 33% in value and 24% in volume between 2015 and 2025 General Overview. However, imports grew even more strongly, by 28% in value and 32% in volume over the same period. Consequently, the EU's net import reliance, a measure of the share of domestic consumption met by imports, increased from 9.0% in 2015 to 11.4% in 2025 Autonomy & Vulnerability. This confirms a deepening integration of non-EU suppliers into the EU's supply chain.

1.3 The dominant role of thin-gauge film in trade flows

The product breakdown reveals that the vast majority of trade, both in terms of quantity and value, is in thin-gauge PET film (subheading 39206219, thickness ≤ 0.35 mm) Product Segment Breakdown. This segment typically serves packaging applications. In 2025, it accounted for 76% of import volume and 59% of export volume. The higher-value, thicker film (subheading 39206290, thickness > 0.35 mm) showed robust volume growth in imports (+123% since 2015), suggesting growing demand for technical or industrial applications.

2. Price Volatility and Diverging Cost Pressures

The period was marked by significant price fluctuations, culminating in a sharp shock in 2022 that affected import and export prices differently, reshaping the cost structure of the market.

2.1 The 2022 price shock and its origins

A dramatic price increase occurred in 2022, with average import prices reaching €3,143 per tonne and export prices hitting €4,066 per tonne General Overview. This peak coincided with detected supply shocks from key partners. The analysis identifies abnormal price spikes in imports from Bahrain (2022), Türkiye (2022), and Oman (2022), indicating that disruptions in the Middle East were a primary driver of the surge Volatility & Shocks. This was likely linked to the broader 2022 energy and petrochemical crisis following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

2.2 Divergent long-term price trends for imports and exports

Beyond the 2022 spike, the long-term price trajectories for imports and exports have diverged. Export prices have generally trended upward and remained elevated above their 2015 starting point (€3,526 in 2025 vs. €3,292 in 2015). In contrast, import prices, after their 2022 peak, have retreated and in 2025 (€2,463) were slightly below their 2015 level (€2,524) General Overview. This suggests that while EU exporters were able to maintain higher prices, the competitive pressure on the import side, particularly from Asian producers, has intensified.

2.3 Increased volatility in key import partnerships

The price volatility (measured by the coefficient of variation) is notably higher for several EU import partners than for most export partners Volatility & Shocks. Trade with partners like China (CV 0.32), Korea (0.25), and Oman (0.22) has been more volatile than with the EU's top export partners, such as the United Kingdom (0.11) and Switzerland (0.12). This indicates that the EU's import supply chain, while diversifying, is more exposed to external price fluctuations.

3. Shifting Geographical Patterns and Market Concentration

The decade witnessed a clear geographical rebalancing of trade flows, with a shift towards new Asian suppliers and a diversification of EU export markets, leading to changes in market concentration.

3.1 The rise of Asian suppliers and the relative decline of the Middle East and UK

The landscape of EU suppliers transformed significantly between 2015 and 2025. Imports from traditional partners like the United Kingdom and South Korea stagnated or declined in value General Overview. Meanwhile, imports from Asia surged: Türkiye (+95%), India (+78%), and most notably China (+133%) recorded dramatic growth. China's share in EU import value more than doubled, cementing its position as a major supplier. Conversely, GCC states like Oman and Bahrain saw their import shares decline.

3.2 Diversification of EU export markets

On the export side, the EU successfully diversified its customer base. While the United Kingdom remained the largest single destination, its share diminished. The most notable growth was in exports to other European and emerging markets: shipments to Türkiye (+246%), Mexico (+359%), and Norway (+100%) expanded rapidly General Overview. Exports to Russia collapsed to virtually zero by 2025, reflecting the impact of sanctions.

3.3 Structural shifts in market concentration

These geographical shifts altered market concentration. For imports, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for value increased by 16%, indicating a slight consolidation as Asian giants grew. For volume, the concentration increase was more pronounced (+52%) Market Structure. Conversely, export concentration fell, with the HHI dropping by 18% in value, confirming the success of market diversification. This presents a mixed picture: the EU is sourcing from a broader base but with increasing weight on a few large Asian players, while its export risk is more spread out.

Conclusion

The EU market for PET film (CN 392062) between 2015 and 2025 demonstrated robust growth but also deepened its structural trade deficit. The period was defined by three main dynamics: a growing reliance on imports to satisfy demand; extreme price volatility in 2022 driven by global energy shocks and supply disruptions, particularly from the Middle East; and a significant geographical rebalancing of trade towards Asian suppliers like China, India, and Türkiye. While EU producers increased their export volumes and diversified their markets, their competitive position was challenged by volatile input costs and intensifying price competition on the import side. Going forward, the EU's dependence on a limited number of high-growth Asian suppliers, coupled with persistent import-price sensitivity, will be key factors shaping the resilience and competitive dynamics of this strategic polymer market.