Market evolution: Plastic film and sheets (CN 392099) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in goods classified under Combined Nomenclature (CN) code 392099 for the period from 2015 to 2025. The product category covers a broad range of non-cellular plastic plates, sheets, film, foil, and strip, which are fundamental intermediate goods used in packaging, construction, electronics, and automotive industries. The analysis is based on annual trade data, examining trends in value, volume, pricing, geographic concentration, and strategic vulnerabilities to identify the key dynamics shaping the EU's external trade in this sector over the past decade.

1. Sustained Growth Punctuated by Price-Driven Expansions and a Widening Deficit

The EU's trade in plastic film and sheets with non-EU countries has expanded significantly over the period, though the trajectory was uneven. Both imports and exports grew, but the growth dynamics differed, leading to an evolution in the EU's trade balance.

Overall Trade Volume and Value Trajectory

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU imports from non-EU partners grew by 31.2%, from €501 million to €657 million. The quantity imported increased by a more substantial 34.8%, rising from 46,025 tonnes to 62,023 tonnes. Conversely, EU exports rose in value by 54.2%, from €270 million to €417 million, while exported volume grew by 26.5% (from 42,000 to 53,132 tonnes). This period saw the EU's trade deficit in this product category widen modestly from €-231 million to €-241 million. The value growth outpacing volume growth, especially for exports, indicates a significant role for unit price inflation.

Shifting Partner Dynamics and Changing Import Reliance

The geographic landscape of EU trade evolved considerably. The United States remained the EU's largest source of imports throughout the period, though its share of import value grew only moderately (+15.3%). More dramatic increases came from Türkiye (+127.1%), China (+71.4%), and Japan (+82.1%). On the export side, the United Kingdom became an increasingly vital market, with its share of EU exports growing by 72.7%. The EU's net import reliance shifted from a slight negative in 2015 (-0.4%, indicating a marginal net exporter position) to a positive 7.0% in 2025, confirming a structural shift towards greater dependency on non-EU suppliers to meet domestic demand.

2. Upgrading in Export Prices and Strategic Specialisation

Beyond mere volume, the period was characterized by a pronounced shift in the price composition of EU trade, alongside the emergence of clear specializations within the bloc.

A Decade of Rising Unit Values

A key feature of the decade was the divergence in price trends between imports and exports. The average price of EU imports remained relatively stable, dipping slightly from €10,883/t to €10,595/t (-2.6%). In stark contrast, EU export prices surged by 21.8%, climbing from €6,433/t to €7,837/t. This suggests EU exporters successfully reoriented their shipments towards higher-value, more specialized segments of the market.

Intra-EU Specialisation and Production

Analysis of the most specialised EU exporters reveals a clear strategic landscape. Luxembourg, Denmark, Italy, Portugal, and Hungary showed the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores in 2025. This specialisation is evident in the product sub-segments. For instance, EU exports of high-value "Polyimide foil and strip" (CN 39209921) commanded an average price of €22,632/t in 2025, far above the overall average. Meanwhile, EU domestic production value grew by 57.6% over the period, indicating expansion in the domestic industry alongside trade growth.

3. Heightened Concentration Risks and Price Volatility in Key Corridors

The period also exposed the EU's trade to significant volatility and concentration risks in specific partner relationships, highlighting vulnerabilities in the supply chain.

Market Concentration Trends

The concentration of EU trade with external partners, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), evolved differently for imports and exports. For imports, concentration by value decreased from an HHI of 2,777 to 2,531 (-8.8%), indicating a slight diversification of sources. However, export concentration increased, rising from an HHI of 794 to 966 (+21.8%). This signifies that EU exporters became more reliant on a narrower set of key destination markets, increasing vulnerability to demand shocks in those specific countries.

Partner-Specific Volatility and Shock Events

Volatility analysis reveals starkly different risk profiles among the EU's top partners. Switzerland, a major import source, exhibited very high price volatility (Coefficient of Variation (CV) = 0.47). On the export side, the United States and Türkiye showed substantial price volatility (CV > 0.38). The data also flags specific shock events, most notably a severe price shock in EU exports to the Republic of Korea in 2020 (a +223% price shift) and to Egypt in 2019 (+126.5%), which can reflect market disruptions, contract changes, or shifts in product mix.

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 decade, the EU's trade in plastic film and sheets (CN 392099) underwent significant transformation. The market expanded in both value and volume, but this growth was heavily driven by rising export prices, suggesting a move towards higher-value-added products. The EU's strategic position shifted, with a growing export propensity (from 20.7% to 34.7% of production) countered by an increasing net import reliance, underscoring a dual reality of stronger export competitiveness and deeper integration into global supply chains. Key risks emerged from increased export market concentration and pronounced price volatility in specific trade corridors, particularly with the United States, Türkiye, and Switzerland. The overall trend points towards a European industry that is more specialised and export-oriented but also more exposed to global price dynamics and partner-specific shocks.