Market evolution: Polyethylene film (CN 392010) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in polyethylene plates, sheets, film, foil and strip under Combined Nomenclature code 392010 over the period 2015–2025. This product category encompasses a wide range of non-cellular polyethylene films — from thin stretch wrap to thicker plates — used primarily in packaging, agriculture, and industrial applications. The EU has historically been a net exporter in this segment, and the data reveals significant structural shifts in trade geography, pricing dynamics, and market openness over the decade under review.

1. A Decade of Rising Volumes and Shifting Geographical Dependencies

The EU's trade in polyethylene film underwent substantial volume and value growth between 2015 and 2025, with particularly pronounced changes on the import side that reshaped the bloc's external trade relationships.

Import volumes surged far more rapidly than exports

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU imports of CN 392010 grew from 398,293 tonnes to 623,046 tonnes — an increase of 56.4%. In value terms, imports rose from €969 million to €1.41 billion (+46.0%). By contrast, export volumes edged down marginally from 674,821 to 668,541 tonnes (−0.9%), though export values still grew by 18.4% to €2.16 billion, driven entirely by higher unit prices. The EU's trade surplus consequently narrowed from €853 million to €743 million (−13.0%).

Import sources diversified — with China, Türkiye, and Egypt rising sharply

The most striking feature of the import side is the emergence of new or expanded suppliers. According to the partner country data:

• Türkiye became the EU's largest single non-EU supplier, with imports growing from €140 million to €310 million (+121%). Turkish competitiveness in polyethylene film has been bolstered by proximity, customs union arrangements, and investment in downstream plastics processing capacity.

• China more than tripled its exports to the EU, from €62 million to €173 million (+178%). This growth reflects China's massive expansion in petrochemical and plastics converting capacity during this period.

• Egypt saw the most dramatic proportional increase — imports surged from €3.5 million to €51.8 million (+1,369%). Egypt has developed a significant polyethylene film industry, partly supported by local natural gas feedstock availability, and has increasingly targeted European markets.

• Malaysia also saw strong growth (+162%), rising from €17 million to €46 million, reflecting the broader trend of Southeast Asian plastics producers gaining market share in the EU.

• The United Kingdom remained the second-largest supplier at €263 million, with relatively modest growth of 11.2% — a pattern likely influenced by post-Brexit trade realignment.

• Saudi Arabia, despite its petrochemical strength, saw a slight decline of 9.4% in export value to the EU, from €106 million to €96 million.

The EU's export geography was reshaped by geopolitical disruption

On the export side, the most consequential development was the near-total collapse of exports to the Russian Federation, which fell from €147 million in 2015 to just €205,280 in 2025 — a decline of 99.9%. This is directly attributable to the EU sanctions regime imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Other notable shifts include:

• The United States became a significantly larger market, with EU exports rising from €158 million to €287 million (+81.9%), reflecting sustained American demand and perhaps some supply chain shifts.
• Morocco grew from €39 million to €70 million (+81.3%), consistent with the deepening of EU-Maghreb economic integration.
• Switzerland (+29.5%) and Norway (+28.3%) showed steady growth as traditional EU-adjacent markets.
• United Kingdom remained the single largest export destination at €456 million (+9.4%), underscoring the persistence of cross-Channel trade despite Brexit.

2. Price Dynamics Reveal Diverging Competitive Pressures

A notable feature of the 2015–2025 period is the divergence between export and import unit prices, reflecting different competitive and structural dynamics on each side of the trade ledger.

Import prices fell while export prices rose — widening the gap

The average import price for CN 392010 declined from €2,433/t to €2,271/t (−6.6%) over the decade, while export prices rose from €2,700/t to €3,227/t (+19.5%). This divergence can be interpreted in several ways:

• The growing import share from lower-cost producers in the Middle East, Turkey, and Asia likely exerted downward pressure on average import prices.
• EU exporters may have shifted toward higher-value or more specialised product variants, supporting higher average export unit values.
• The product segment breakdown shows significant variation by sub-segment: for example, thicker PE film (39201089) traded at €3,189/t on export versus €2,767/t on import in 2025, while stretch film (39201024) showed a narrower gap of €2,158/t export versus €1,512/t import.

The 2021–2022 price spike reflected global energy and feedstock shocks

Both import and export prices peaked sharply in 2022, with export prices reaching a high of €3,705/t and import prices hitting €2,815/t. This coincided with the global energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which dramatically raised natural gas and naphtha feedstock costs — critical inputs for polyethylene production. The subsequent price decline in 2023–2024 reflects the gradual normalisation of energy markets, though prices remained above pre-2021 levels.

The widening price gap suggests that the EU increasingly specialised in higher-value segments of the market while lower-cost imports filled demand for commodity-grade film.

Shock events in specific markets

The volatility analysis identifies several notable price shocks:

• Russia (exports, 2023): An abnormality score of 10.1 and a price shift of +157.2% reflects the collapse of export volumes to near-zero, with only marginal residual trade at distorted prices.
• Tunisia (imports, 2021): A price shock with abnormality of 6.7 and a +36.8% shift, possibly linked to supply disruptions or feedstock cost pass-through.
• Canada (exports, 2022): An abnormality of 6.1 with a +29.7% price increase, coinciding with the global energy crisis.

3. The EU Remains a Net Exporter but Its Market Openness Has Increased

Despite the narrowing trade surplus, the EU maintained its position as a net exporter of polyethylene film throughout the period. However, the data reveals a broader trend of increasing market integration, with rising trade intensity and export propensity.

Net import reliance remained negative — confirming the EU's net exporter status

The net import reliance indicator remained consistently negative at around −7% throughout the period (−6.9% in 2015 and −6.9% in 2025). A negative value indicates that exports exceed imports as a share of apparent consumption. This metric varied between −5.4% and −11.2% over the period, with the lowest net-exporter surplus (−5.4%) occurring during the years of fastest import growth, before recovering slightly.

This stability belies a structural shift: while the EU's net position remained relatively constant, the absolute volumes of both imports and exports grew, and the composition of trade partners changed substantially.

Trade intensity and export propensity both rose significantly

More revealing than the balance alone are the trade intensity and export propensity indicators:

• Trade intensity (exports + imports as a share of production) rose from 15.7% to 27.4% (+74.0%), indicating that the EU's polyethylene film sector became significantly more globally integrated over the decade.
• Export propensity (exports as a share of production) increased from 11.5% to 18.6% (+61.6%), suggesting that EU producers increasingly oriented their output toward external markets.

EU production grew strongly — but not as fast as trade

EU production of CN 392010 increased from 3.93 billion kg to 4.95 billion kg in volume (+26.0%) and from €6.62 billion to €11.43 billion in value (+72.7%). The faster growth in production value relative to volume indicates significant price appreciation, consistent with the energy-driven cost increases observed in 2021–2022.

Despite this production growth, the fact that trade intensity nearly doubled implies that both imports and exports grew faster than domestic output — a hallmark of increasing specialisation and global value chain integration in the sector.

Trade concentration remained moderate, with imports becoming slightly more diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration declined from 1,254 to 1,189 (−5.2% by value), indicating modest diversification of import sources. For exports, the HHI remained essentially flat at around 865. Both values indicate moderate rather than high concentration — the market is not dangerously dependent on any single supplier or customer.

Among EU member states, Germany was both the largest importer (€223 million in 2025) and the largest exporter (€570 million), reflecting its role as the EU's plastics processing hub. Spain saw the fastest import growth among major EU economies (+124%), while Poland (+36%) and Belgium (+35%) were among the fastest-growing exporters.

Conclusion

The EU's polyethylene film market (CN 392010) evolved substantially between 2015 and 2025. While the bloc maintained its status as a net exporter throughout the period, the most significant developments were structural rather than directional. Import volumes grew more than twice as fast as exports, driven by rising deliveries from Türkiye, China, and Egypt, while the near-total loss of the Russian market — worth €147 million in 2015 — reshaped the EU's export geography. The price environment was marked by a sharp 2022 spike linked to the global energy crisis and a persistent widening of the export-over-import price premium, suggesting EU producers moved toward higher-value specialisation. Overall, the sector became markedly more globally integrated, with trade intensity rising from 15.7% to 27.4% of production — a fundamental transformation in the competitive landscape for this essential industrial material.