Market evolution: Polyethylene sheets (CN 39201089) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU external trade (extra-EU) for polyethylene sheets, film, foil, and related products classified under Combined Nomenclature code 39201089. The period under review, from January 2015 to December 2025, encompasses significant economic shifts, including the post-2015 commodity price recovery, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2021-2022 energy and supply chain crises. The data reveals a market characterized by robust growth, shifting geographic patterns, and increasing integration into global value chains, underpinned by the EU's structural role as a net exporter. The analysis is based exclusively on the trade overview data, partner and reporter details, and vulnerability indicators provided.

1. Sustained Growth Outpaced by Accelerating Imports

The EU's trade in polyethylene sheets expanded significantly over the decade. However, the growth in imports was notably faster than that of exports, reshaping the trade balance.

1.1 The Trade Scale Expanded in Both Value and Volume

Both exports and imports recorded substantial increases in value. EU exports grew by 42.5% in value (from EUR 477.9 million to EUR 680.8 million) and by 15.3% in volume. Imports grew even more strongly, by 58.6% in value (from EUR 264.1 million to EUR 418.9 million) and by 63.6% in volume. This indicates that while the EU remained a major producer and exporter, external suppliers successfully expanded their share of the EU market, particularly in physical terms.

1.2 Price Dynamics Diverged Between Exports and Imports

Export unit prices rose by 23.5% over the period, from EUR 2,582/tonne to EUR 3,189/tonne. This increase suggests EU exports may have shifted towards higher-value-added products or reflected rising input costs. In contrast, import prices declined by 3.0% (from EUR 2,853/tonne to EUR 2,767/tonne), despite a significant dip to a low of EUR 2,398/tonne in the mid-period. This price softening for imports may reflect competitive pressures from new suppliers or economies of scale in exporting countries.

1.3 Geographic Concentration in Imports Shifted Markedly

The top import partners show dramatic growth from specific origins. The most striking changes were:

• China: Imports surged by 194.6% (from EUR 24.7 million to EUR 72.9 million).
• Türkiye: Imports increased by 162.9% (from EUR 15.0 million to EUR 39.5 million).
• Egypt: Imports exploded by 1,110.4% (from EUR 1.7 million to EUR 20.4 million).
• United Kingdom: Imports grew by 105.2%, likely reflecting post-Brexit trade reorientation. Meanwhile, imports from traditional partners like Saudi Arabia (4.6%) and the United States (27.3%) grew at a more moderate pace.

2. EU Market Resilience and Evolving Competitive Landscape

Despite rising import penetration, the EU strengthened its net exporter position. The market structure shows a stable level of concentration, with notable specialisation differences across member states.

2.1 The EU's Net Export Position Deepened

The EU consistently maintained a positive trade balance throughout the period, which widened from EUR 213.8 million to EUR 261.8 million. The net import reliance metric was negative throughout, moving from -4.9% to -10.7%, confirming the EU's status as a net supplier to the world. This deepening of the net exporter role occurred alongside rising imports, indicating a simultaneous growth of both outward and inward trade flows.

2.2 Market Concentration Remained Broadly Stable

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a measure of market concentration, saw minimal change for imports (HHI value around 1,266 to 1,240) and exports (HHI value around 641 to 619). This stability suggests that the increase in trade was not driven by a consolidation towards a few dominant partners but rather by a broad-based expansion involving multiple countries.

2.3 Internal EU Specialisation Varies Greatly

Analysis of revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) for 2025 highlights significant intra-EU disparities. Greece (RSCA 0.69) and Lithuania (RSCA 0.63) show the strongest specialisation in this product category relative to their overall exports. In contrast, Ireland (RSCA -0.99) and Malta (RSCA -0.91) show a strong comparative disadvantage. Germany, while having a positive and moderate RSCA (0.26), dominates the absolute production and export volumes, accounting for 36.1% of EU production value and a major share of exports.

3. Price Volatility and Geopolitical Shocks

Trade flows exhibited volatility, with several major price shocks detected, particularly around 2022-2023. These events likely reflect broader market disruptions.

3.1 Trade Partners Showed Varying Degrees of Volatility

The coefficient of variation (CV) of trade values reveals differing stability. On the export side, flows to the United Kingdom (CV 0.07) and Switzerland (CV 0.07) were highly stable, while exports to the Russian Federation (CV 0.73) and South Africa (CV 0.48) were volatile. For imports, shipments from Switzerland (CV 0.10) were stable, whereas those from Egypt (CV 0.72) and India (CV 0.65) showed high volatility, indicating potentially less established or more erratic trade relationships.

3.2 Major Price Shocks Were Detected in 2022-2023

The analysis detected several significant supply shocks, measured by abnormal price shifts:

1. Russian Federation Exports (2023): The most severe shock, with a price abnormality score of 33.4 and a price shift of +539.4%. This coincides with the period following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent EU sanctions and trade restrictions, which severely disrupted established supply chains and likely forced transactions through alternative channels at much higher costs.
2. Malaysia Exports (2022): A price abnormality of 32.0 and a shift of +335.0%. This likely reflects the extreme energy and raw material cost pressures in the petrochemical sector during the global energy crisis of 2021-2022.
3. United States Exports (2022): A price abnormality of 22.8 and a shift of +28.1%. This aligns with the broader inflation and supply chain bottleneck phenomena.

3.3 Trade Intensification Signals Deeper Global Integration

The EU's trade intensity (imports + exports as a share of production) surged from 14.6% to 39.3%. Similarly, export propensity (exports as a share of production) increased from 10.0% to 28.1%. This near-tripling of these ratios underscores that the EU's domestic polyethylene sheet industry became vastly more oriented towards international markets over the decade, both as an exporter and as a buyer of foreign inputs.

Conclusion

Over 2015-2025, the EU market for polyethylene sheets (CN 39201089) evolved through strong, import-led growth. While the EU consolidated its position as a net exporter with a widening positive trade balance, import volumes and values grew even more rapidly, driven by a significant influx from China, Türkiye, and Egypt. The market structure remained competitive, though with notable internal EU specialisation disparities. The period 2022-2023 was marked by severe price shocks, most notably in trade with Russia, reflecting the profound impact of geopolitical events on supply chains and pricing. Overall, the data points to a sector that became increasingly integrated into global trade, experiencing both the benefits of expanded markets and the vulnerabilities of price volatility and supply disruptions.