Market evolution: Printed polyethylene film (CN 39201025) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union (EU) in printed polyethylene film (Customs Code 39201025) between 2015 and 2025. The product falls within the broader category of plastic plates, sheets, and film. The analysis is based on official EU trade data, focusing on extra-EU flows. Over the decade, the EU market for this product demonstrated resilience and significant structural shifts, characterized by diverging price trends, major reconfigurations of trade partnerships, and an increasing integration into global trade networks.

1. Robust Growth in Trade Value Disguises Divergent Price and Volume Trends

The EU’s trade in printed polyethylene film expanded in value terms, but this growth masks distinct and opposing trends in the underlying physical volumes and unit prices between exports and imports.

1.1 Export Revenues Rose Despite Stable Volume, Signaling Significant Price Inflation

EU export value grew by 19.2% over the period, increasing from €564.6 million in 2015 to €673.0 million in 2025. However, the exported quantity actually declined slightly by 3.8%, from 186,239 tonnes to 179,204 tonnes. This divergence is explained by a substantial 23.9% increase in the average export price, which rose from €3,031 per tonne to €3,755 per tonne. This indicates that EU exporters successfully commanded higher prices in foreign markets, more than offsetting the minor decline in physical sales volume. For more details, see the trade overview.

1.2 Import Growth Was Driven Primarily by a Surge in Physical Volumes

In contrast to the export pattern, the 40.6% increase in import value (from €232.4 million to €326.8 million) was almost entirely fueled by a massive 69.8% rise in imported quantities, which grew from 72,617 tonnes to 123,275 tonnes. Notably, the average import price fell by 17.2% over the period, from €3,201 to €2,651 per tonne. This suggests the EU market increasingly sourced larger volumes of competitively priced printed polyethylene film from international suppliers.

1.3 The EU Maintained a Positive Trade Balance, But Import Reliance Deepened

The EU remained a consistent net exporter throughout the period. The trade balance in value terms improved slightly by 4.2%, from €332.1 million to €346.2 million. However, the underlying dynamics point towards a growing dependency on imports. The net import reliance metric, while still negative (indicating net exporter status), moved from -7.6% to -6.0%, confirming that imports are claiming a growing share of the domestic consumption landscape.

2. Geopolitical Shifts and Regional Sourcing Redefined the EU's Trade Partnerships

The period witnessed a dramatic restructuring of the EU's key trade partners, with significant losses in some traditional markets and explosive growth in others, particularly in imports.

2.1 Export Destinations Showed Strong Resilience, Except for a Near-Total Collapse in Russia

The top export destinations remained relatively stable, with the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and the United States growing as key markets. The UK saw exports grow by 37.6% to €145.0 million, while the US market expanded by 67.5% to €87.9 million. The most dramatic shift, however, was the near-total collapse of exports to the Russian Federation. After being a top-five market (worth €54.7 million in 2015), exports plummeted by 99.6% to just €0.2 million by 2025, a clear consequence of geopolitical sanctions and trade realignment. See the top partners by value.

2.2 Import Sources Diversified Dramatically, with Turkey and China Leading the Growth

The composition of EU imports changed profoundly. Turkey emerged as the dominant supplier, with its exports to the EU soaring by 136.8% to become the largest source at €140.7 million. Simultaneously, imports from China surged by 194.1% to €46.3 million. Other significant growth was recorded from Saudi Arabia (+333.2%) and Western Balkan nations like Serbia (+260.7%) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (+507.7%). This points to a strategic diversification of supply chains towards Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

2.3 The Brexit Transition Disrupted the UK’s Position as a Stable Import Source

While the UK remained the EU's top export market, its role as an import supplier diminished significantly. UK imports to the EU fell by 37.0% over the period. A notable price shock in 2021, with a 51.4% price increase, highlights the volatility introduced by the post-Brexit trading environment, potentially explaining the subsequent volume decline as EU importers sought more stable and cost-effective alternatives.

3. Strengthened Production Capacity Underpins Growing Global Market Integration

Underlying the trade shifts is a story of significant EU production growth and an increasing, though specialized, integration into global supply chains, which presents both opportunities and vulnerabilities.

3.1 EU Domestic Production Expanded Substantially in Both Volume and Value

Data on EU production (available for most years) shows strong growth. Production quantity increased by an estimated 40.7% over the period, while production value grew even faster by 79.6%. This indicates that the EU's industrial base in this segment not only expanded but also moved towards higher-value outputs, supporting the observed ability to increase export prices.

3.2 Specialisation Varies Widely Across Member States, Highlighting a Divided Internal Market

The EU's export competitiveness is not uniform. Analysis of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) shows significant specialization in smaller economies like Croatia (RCA 5.15) and Finland (RCA 4.50). Conversely, larger economies like Romania (RCA 0.15) and Czechia (RCA 0.22) are highly unspecialized in this product, suggesting they are primarily importers or serve different internal roles.

3.3 Deepening Trade Integration Coexists with Rising Import Concentration Risk

The trade intensity index, which measures the importance of trade relative to production, increased by 48.6%, indicating the EU market became much more globally integrated. However, this increased openness came with a side effect: the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports rose by 9.0%, signaling a higher concentration of import suppliers. The growing dominance of Turkey as a single supplier increases potential vulnerability to disruptions originating from that specific economy.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's market for printed polyethylene film underwent a complex transformation. While maintaining its position as a net exporter, the bloc successfully leveraged its strengthened production capacity to achieve valuable export growth in key Western markets. Simultaneously, it absorbed a massive influx of competitively priced imports, primarily from Turkey and China, fundamentally altering its supply chain map. This period was marked by price resilience on the export side, aggressive volume-seeking on the import side, and a strategic reorientation away from Russia and the UK. The resulting market is more integrated and dynamic, but also more exposed to the price and supply risks associated with a more concentrated import portfolio. Future stability will depend on managing these new dependencies while capitalizing on the EU's demonstrated capacity for value-added production.