Market evolution: PET film (CN 39206219) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in non-cellular poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) film of thickness ≤ 0.35 mm, classified under customs code CN 39206219, over the period 2015–2025. This product encompasses a wide range of thin PET sheets, films and strips used in packaging, labelling, electronics and industrial applications. It excludes specialised photographic and magnetic-disk film, as well as self-adhesive products.

Over the eleven-year window, the EU trade in PET film has been shaped by three interrelated dynamics: the persistence of a structural trade deficit despite a substantial expansion of domestic production; a notable reorientation of the EU's key trading partners — particularly the rise of Türkiye, India and China as import sources and the collapse of exports to Russia; and episodic price shocks, most acutely in 2022, which exposed the sensitivity of EU trade to global supply-chain disruptions. The following sections examine each of these dynamics in turn.

1. A Growing yet Structurally Deficit-Prone Market

1.1 Domestic production expanded significantly while trade volumes rose in parallel

EU production of PET film grew strongly over the period. Production quantity rose from approximately 231,943 tonnes in the first year to 400,000 tonnes in the last, a gain of 72.5 %. Production value more than doubled, climbing from €579.4 million to an estimated €1.2 billion (+107.1 %), reflecting both volume growth and a higher-value product mix.

In parallel, EU imports of PET film grew from 211,107 tonnes (€536.1 million) to 247,080 tonnes (€630.9 million), an increase of 17.0 % in volume and 17.7 % in value. EU exports rose from 80,476 tonnes (€318.8 million) to 92,547 tonnes (€391.3 million), up 15.0 % and 22.8 % respectively. The market therefore expanded on all fronts — domestic output, imports and exports — indicating robust underlying demand for thin PET film both within the EU and in export markets.

Sources: Trade — Production volumes

1.2 The trade deficit widened despite growing domestic output

Throughout the period, the EU remained a consistent net importer of PET film. The trade balance deteriorated from −€217.4 million in the first year to −€239.6 million in the last (+10.2 % in absolute terms). The deficit was narrowest in the period at −€166.5 million and widest at −€323.1 million. This widening is noteworthy in that it occurred alongside a 72.5 % increase in domestic production, suggesting that EU demand for thin PET film grew even faster than the expansion of local manufacturing capacity.

Import prices were consistently lower than export prices. In the last year, EU import prices averaged €2,553/t versus export prices of €4,228/t — a premium of roughly 66 %. This persistent price gap is consistent with the EU importing commodity-grade PET film from lower-cost producers while exporting higher-value, specialty grades to premium markets.

1.3 Net import reliance remained stable, though peaking sharply during the pandemic

The net import reliance — defined as the ratio of net imports to apparent consumption — fluctuated between 11.5 % and 31.8 % over the period. The first-year reading of 15.2 % was closely matched by the last-year figure of 15.4 %, suggesting a broadly stable structural position. However, the peak of 31.8 % indicates that at certain points (likely during the 2020–2021 period), the EU's reliance on external supply temporarily surged — possibly reflecting pandemic-related disruptions to domestic production and logistics. The trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) remained high at around 59 %, while export propensity (exports as a share of production) stood at 36.6 % in the last year. These figures underscore that PET film is a heavily traded product and that the EU's market is deeply integrated into global supply chains.

2. A Reconfiguration of EU Trading Partners

2.1 Türkiye, India and China displaced Gulf and East Asian suppliers on the import side

The composition of the EU's top import partners shifted markedly over the period:

Source: Partners

The most dramatic shift was the surge of Türkiye, which went from the second-largest import source to the undisputed leader, more than doubling its shipments. India similarly rose from €58.4 million to €90.0 million, while China doubled its share. In contrast, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) exporters — Bahrain (−50.2 %) and the United Arab Emirates (−63.8 %) — experienced sharp declines. South Korea also lost ground (−24.0 %), and the United Kingdom, whose shipments reflect a post-Brexit reclassification, declined modestly (−10.7 %).

This reorientation likely reflects several factors: competitive capacity expansion in Türkiye and India, proximity advantages for Turkish suppliers (lower logistics costs and shorter lead times), and the growing cost-competitiveness of Asian producers. The decline of Gulf suppliers may partly reflect the maturation of downstream converting capacity in the region, redirecting PET film toward domestic or intra-regional consumption rather than EU-bound exports.

2.2 EU exports pivoted from Russia toward emerging markets

On the export side, the most striking development was the near-complete collapse of exports to the Russian Federation: from €11.5 million to a mere €248 thousand (−100.0 %). This is clearly attributable to the EU sanctions regime imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Source: Partners

This lost Russian demand was more than offset by the rapid growth of exports to other markets. The United States grew by 51.2 % (to €65.4 million), Türkiye by 323.9 % (to €24.1 million), Mexico by 396.8 % (to €7.8 million), and India by 457.8 % (to €14.1 million). The United Kingdom remained the EU's single largest export destination at €108.9 million, essentially flat over the period. This pattern suggests that European PET film producers successfully redirected volumes following the loss of the Russian market, finding growth in both mature and emerging economies.

2.3 Germany dominated both imports and exports, but several smaller members saw dramatic shifts

Among EU Member States, Germany was the largest importer (€129.0 million) and by far the largest exporter (€172.7 million), essentially flat in both roles over the period. Italy was the second-largest importer (€141.5 million, +10.0 %) and second-largest exporter (€56.1 million, +36.7 %).

Several members saw outsized changes:

• Hungary emerged as a major export hub, with exports surging from €0.8 million to €22.4 million (+2,607.9 %), suggesting the commissioning of new production capacity or the expansion of an existing plant.
• Netherlands saw imports rise by 179.8 % while exports collapsed by 68.8 %, implying a shift from a production/transit role to a consumption role.
• France and Spain both roughly doubled their imports, signalling growing downstream demand.
• Poland, by contrast, saw both imports (−21.9 %) and exports (−47.3 %) decline, possibly reflecting competitive pressures or capacity relocations.

3. Price Shocks, Volatility and Evolving Market Concentration

3.1 The year 2022 brought significant price shocks from key import suppliers

The volatility analysis identifies three major supply-side price shocks, all centred on 2022:

Source: Supply shocks

These three suppliers together accounted for nearly half of EU import value, making the 2022 price increases highly consequential. The shocks are consistent with the broader energy-price surge triggered by the Russia–Ukraine conflict and its cascading effects on petrochemical feedstock costs, as well as post-COVID demand recovery. Turkish suppliers, in particular, faced both elevated energy costs and currency volatility (the sharp depreciation of the Turkish lira), which likely contributed to the magnitude of the price shift recorded.

3.2 Import volatility was highest for smaller or geographically distant suppliers

The coefficient of variation (CV) of bilateral trade flows reveals markedly different stability profiles:

• Most volatile import sources: Thailand (CV 0.953), UAE (0.854), Pakistan (0.691), Egypt (0.480)
• Most stable import sources: Türkiye (0.155), UK (0.167), USA (0.187)

High volatility among Gulf and Asian suppliers reflects the episodic and often opportunistic nature of their EU-bound shipments, likely tied to capacity availability, arbitrage opportunities and logistics costs. By contrast, Türkiye and the UK — both geographically proximate — exhibited far more stable trade flows, consistent with integrated supply chains and recurring contractual relationships.

On the export side, the Korean Republic (CV 1.396) and Mexico (1.307) were the most volatile destinations, while Switzerland (0.115) and the UK (0.209) were the most stable — again pointing to the stabilising effect of proximity and long-standing trade relationships.

3.3 Import concentration rose modestly while export concentration declined

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) of import partners by value rose from 982 to 1,116 (+13.7 %), indicating a modest increase in concentration. While still well below the 2,500 threshold typically associated with a highly concentrated market, this trend reflects the growing dominance of Türkiye, India and China — at the expense of a more diversified set of smaller suppliers.

By contrast, the HHI of export partners by value fell from 1,708 to 1,315 (−23.0 %), meaning that EU exports became significantly more diversified. This is consistent with the loss of the concentrated Russian market and the simultaneous opening of new, smaller but growing destinations such as Mexico, India and Serbia. The decline in export concentration is a positive development for the EU's supply-side resilience, reducing dependence on any single partner.

The concentration of import flows by volume also increased notably (HHI from 1,119 to 1,646, +47.1 %), suggesting that a growing share of physical PET film inflows came from fewer sources — a pattern that warrants monitoring from a supply-security perspective.

Conclusion

The EU trade in PET film (CN 39206219) over 2015–2025 tells the story of a market that expanded substantially — production value more than doubled — yet remained structurally reliant on imports, with a persistent trade deficit averaging around €230 million. Demand growth consistently outpaced domestic capacity additions, keeping net import reliance stable at roughly 15 % of apparent consumption.

The most transformative dynamic has been the reorientation of the EU's trade geography. Türkiye, India and China have consolidated their positions as the leading import sources, while Gulf exporters and South Korea receded. On the export side, the loss of the Russian market was more than compensated by vigorous growth in the US, Türkiye, Mexico and India — and by the emergence of Hungary as a new production-export hub. The EU's export base became meaningfully more diversified, a welcome development from a risk-management standpoint.

The 2022 price shocks from Türkiye, India and Bahrain — the three together representing nearly half of import value — served as a vivid reminder of the EU's exposure to upstream petrochemical cost volatility. While no single disruption proved critical, the combination of rising import concentration by volume and persistent geopolitical uncertainty argues for continued attention to supply-chain diversification and the development of domestic recycling-based PET capacity as a complement to virgin film production.