Market evolution: BOPP film (CN 39202021) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in biaxially oriented polypropylene (BOPP) film — classified under customs code 39202021 — over the period 2015 to 2025. BOPP film is a widely used packaging material with applications in food wrapping, labelling, and industrial overwrapping. The EU is both a major producer and a major consumer of this product, and the decade under review has seen significant structural shifts in its trade position.

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade in BOPP film underwent a fundamental transformation: the bloc moved from a comfortable net-exporter status to a net-importer position. EU exports declined by 15.0% in value and 24.2% in volume, while imports grew by 36.5% in value and 15.7% in volume. The resulting swing in the trade balance — from a surplus of €78.6 million in 2015 to a deficit of €223.3 million in 2025 — reflects deep structural changes in global BOPP supply chains, the reorientation of trade flows following geopolitical disruptions, and shifting competitive advantages within and outside the EU.

The following sections analyse these dynamics in three parts: the macro-level reversal of the EU's trade position, the reconfiguration of partner countries, and the implications for market concentration, vulnerability, and resilience.

1. From net exporter to net importer: a structural reversal in the EU's trade balance

1.1 The export trajectory: declining volumes amid rising unit values

EU exports of BOPP film fell substantially over the 2015–2025 period. In value terms, exports decreased from €641.6 million to €545.2 million, a decline of 15.0%. The drop in volume was sharper still: from 215,174 tonnes to 163,108 tonnes (−24.2%). This means the EU exported nearly a quarter less BOPP film by weight at the end of the period compared with the beginning.

However, the decline in volume was partly offset by rising unit values. The average export price increased by 12.1%, from €2,982/tonne to €3,343/tonne. This suggests that EU producers shifted towards higher-value or higher-specification products, or that cost pressures (raw materials, energy, labour) pushed prices upward. The unit price reached a peak of €3,960/tonne during the period — likely reflecting the commodity-price surge of 2021–2022 — before moderating.

The period saw an export peak around 2017–2018 (with volumes reaching a maximum of 243,948 tonnes and values reaching €802.6 million), after which exports entered a sustained decline. This inflection point is significant: it predates the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 energy crisis, suggesting that structural factors — such as rising production capacity in competing countries — were already eroding EU competitiveness before external shocks amplified the trend.

1.2 The import trajectory: accelerating demand met by non-EU supply

Imports moved in the opposite direction. EU imports of BOPP film rose from €563.0 million in 2015 to €768.5 million in 2025, an increase of 36.5%. In volume, imports grew from 237,356 tonnes to 274,602 tonnes (+15.7%).

Import prices also rose (+18.0%), but notably remained consistently below export prices throughout the period (€2,799/tonne vs. €3,343/tonne in 2025). This persistent price gap — roughly €500–600/tonne — points to a structural cost advantage for non-EU suppliers, likely driven by lower energy and labour costs in production hubs such as Türkiye, Egypt, and China.

1.3 The trade balance swing: from surplus to deficit

The divergence of these two trajectories resulted in a dramatic reversal of the EU's trade balance.

In 2015, the EU was a net exporter of BOPP film, with a net import reliance of −26.1% (meaning exports exceeded imports by that share of apparent consumption). By 2025, this figure had flipped to +5.2%, indicating that the EU had become a net importer. The net import reliance reached its lowest point (most negative) at −28.5% before rising steadily to its current level.

This transformation is further corroborated by production data. EU production grew from approximately 568,000 tonnes to 720,000 tonnes (+26.8% by volume) and from €1.55 billion to €1.96 billion (+26.1% by value). Despite this domestic production growth, it was insufficient to keep pace with demand, leaving a gap that non-EU suppliers filled. The trade intensity of the product rose from 40.9% to 48.3%, confirming that BOPP film became more deeply embedded in international trade over the decade.

2. A reconfigured partner landscape: geopolitical disruption and the rise of new suppliers

2.1 The collapse of EU–Russia trade flows

Perhaps the most dramatic shift in the EU's BOPP trade over this period was the near-total disappearance of Russia as both a supplier and a customer.

On the import side, Russian exports to the EU fell from €34.0 million in 2015 to just €93,000 in 2025 — a decline of 99.7%. The peak was €70.6 million, indicating that Russia was once a significant supplier. Similarly, EU exports to Russia collapsed from €64.6 million to €488,000 (−99.2%). This bilateral collapse almost certainly reflects the sanctions regime imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which progressively restricted trade in plastics and polymer products.

The void left by Russia on the import side was filled by a combination of existing and new suppliers. On the export side, the loss of the Russian market was partially compensated by other destinations — most notably Ukraine, where EU exports surged from €13.5 million to €45.7 million (+238.7%). Ukraine's import volatility was notably high (CV of 0.68 for exports, the highest among top export partners), and a significant price shock was detected in 2021 (+25.6% shift), consistent with the disruption of supply chains in the region.

2.2 Türkiye's emergence as the dominant import partner

The most consequential reconfiguration of the import side was the dramatic rise of Türkiye. Imports of BOPP film from Türkiye nearly doubled over the period, growing from €165.2 million in 2015 to €325.0 million in 2025 (+96.8%). By 2025, Türkiye accounted for the single largest share of EU BOPP film imports by value, representing approximately 42% of total imports.

Several factors likely underpin Türkiye's rise: its geographic proximity to the EU, its Customs Union agreement with the bloc (which covers industrial goods), competitive energy and labour costs, and significant expansion of domestic BOPP production capacity. The UK, by contrast, grew only modestly (+12.5%), partly reflecting the post-Brexit trade friction that may have dampened the growth potential of what remains a major EU export destination.

2.3 The diversification of import origins: Egypt, China, and Saudi Arabia

Beyond Türkiye, several other non-traditional suppliers gained ground. Egyptian imports grew by 46.0% (from €45.7 million to €66.6 million), while Chinese imports surged by 159.4% (from €20.2 million to €52.4 million). Saudi Arabian imports more than doubled (+114.2%, from €10.2 million to €21.9 million).

These shifts are consistent with a broader pattern of Middle Eastern and Asian petrochemical producers expanding downstream into polymer film manufacturing, leveraging integrated feedstock advantages. The volatility analysis reveals that while traditional partners such as the UK (CV 0.20) and India (CV 0.17) showed relatively stable trade flows, newer suppliers like China (CV 0.42) and Saudi Arabia (CV 0.43) exhibited higher volatility — suggesting that their integration into EU supply chains is still maturing.

A notable price shock in 2021 was detected for Chinese imports, with a 58.5% price shift and an abnormality score of 63.7. This coincides with the global commodity price surge and shipping disruptions of 2021, when container freight rates and raw material costs spiked.

2.4 The reshaping of EU export destinations

On the export side, the EU's customer base also shifted markedly. The United Kingdom remained the largest single destination but saw exports decline from €199.0 million to €114.5 million (−42.5%). Algeria, another historically important market, experienced a similar contraction (−50.7%, from €31.4 million to €15.5 million).

Conversely, exports to the United States grew robustly (+56.9%), and those to Serbia increased by 45.3%. These shifts point to a geographic reorientation of EU exports towards markets where EU producers retain a competitive edge — either through quality differentiation, established logistics networks, or trade agreement advantages.

3. Market concentration, competitive specialisation, and structural resilience

3.1 Rising import concentration and falling export concentration

One of the most significant structural changes in the EU's BOPP film trade was the divergence in market concentration between imports and exports.

The import-side HHI rose by 43.7% (by value) and 50.5% (by volume), moving from a moderately concentrated market to one approaching high concentration. This is a direct consequence of Türkiye's growing dominance as a supplier: as Russia exited and other suppliers grew more slowly, the EU's import base became more reliant on a smaller number of large suppliers. An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered "highly concentrated"; at 2,341, the EU import market is now close to that threshold, raising potential concerns about supply-chain vulnerability.

On the export side, the HHI declined by 33.8%, indicating that EU exports became more diversified across destination markets. While this might seem positive, it likely reflects the loss of large concentrated markets (Russia, UK) rather than a deliberate diversification strategy.

3.2 EU production growth and the internal competitive landscape

EU production of BOPP film grew by 26.8% in volume (from ~568,000 tonnes to ~720,000 tonnes) and 26.1% in value (from €1.55 billion to €1.96 billion) over the period. This growth, while substantial, was outpaced by the growth in imports, explaining the net shift to import dependence.

The specialisation data for 2025 reveals a heterogeneous landscape within the EU:

Bulgaria and Portugal exhibit very high revealed comparative advantage (RCA) values, suggesting that BOPP film accounts for a disproportionately large share of their export baskets. Italy, with a 21.7% share of EU production and an RCA of 2.71, is the largest EU producer among those with a clear specialisation in this product. Meanwhile, countries like Ireland (RCA 0.001), Cyprus (0.01), and Estonia (0.012) have virtually no specialisation, consistent with the product's concentrated production base within the EU.

The rise of Bulgaria as an export powerhouse is particularly noteworthy: EU exports from Bulgaria grew by 190.3% (from €15.9 million to €46.3 million), making it one of the fastest-growing EU exporters. This likely reflects investment in production capacity by major BOPP manufacturers in the country.

3.3 Export propensity decline and the vulnerability outlook

The export propensity of EU BOPP production declined from 33.4% to 30.0% (−10.4%). This means that a smaller share of EU-produced BOPP film was directed towards export markets in 2025 compared with 2015, as more of it was absorbed by domestic consumption and as export competitiveness weakened.

The combination of rising trade intensity (48.3%), growing import reliance (+5.2%), and increasing import concentration (HHI 2,341) paints a picture of an EU market that is becoming more exposed to external supply dynamics. The 2021 price shocks — affecting imports from China (+58.5% shift), exports to Ukraine (+25.6%), and exports to Algeria (+29.1%) — illustrate how quickly trade flows can be disrupted by external events.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in BOPP film (CN 39202021) has undergone a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. The most consequential development was the shift from net exporter to net importer, driven by a combination of declining export volumes and surging imports. While EU production grew by 27%, this was insufficient to keep pace with domestic demand, leaving a widening gap that was filled by increasingly cost-competitive suppliers — most prominently Türkiye, whose share of EU imports nearly doubled to €325 million.

Geopolitical events have reshaped the partner landscape. The near-total collapse of EU–Russia BOPP trade following 2022 sanctions removed a major bilateral flow on both sides, while the Ukraine conflict redirected some EU export volumes eastward. Meanwhile, suppliers from the Middle East (Egypt, Saudi Arabia) and Asia (China) have steadily gained market share, benefiting from integrated petrochemical supply chains and lower production costs.

These shifts carry implications for EU supply-chain resilience. The rising concentration of imports (HHI approaching 2,341) and the growing reliance on Türkiye as the dominant supplier create a degree of vulnerability — not unlike the energy dependence dynamics that dominated policy discussions in 2022. The EU's export base, while more geographically diversified, has shrunk in absolute terms, and the export propensity of domestic production is declining.

Looking ahead, the EU's BOPP film market will likely be shaped by three key factors: the trajectory of energy costs (which affect EU producers' competitiveness), the pace of capacity expansion in competing regions, and the evolving regulatory environment around plastics and packaging sustainability. The data suggests that maintaining a strong domestic production base will require continued investment in higher-value, specialised product segments where the EU retains a comparative advantage.