Market evolution: Other plastic articles (CN 3926) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in Articles of plastics and articles of other materials of heading 3901 to 3914, n.e.s. (Combined Nomenclature code 3926) over the period 2015–2025. This residual heading covers a wide variety of finished and semi-finished plastic goods—from office supplies and furniture fittings to ornamental articles, plastic apparel (including gloves), and a broad catch-all category of other articles not elsewhere specified.

Over the decade, the EU's trade in CN 3926 expanded substantially in value terms. Export values rose from €6.96 billion in 2015 to €11.35 billion in 2025 (+63.0%), while import values grew from €6.74 billion to €10.77 billion (+59.9%). Throughout the period, the EU maintained a modest trade surplus, which widened from €226 million to €581 million. These headline figures, however, mask important structural shifts in pricing, geographic concentration, and segment-level dynamics that this report explores in three sections.

1. Price-driven expansion: value growth masks stagnating physical volumes

1.1 Export values grew primarily through higher unit prices, not higher volumes

The most striking feature of the decade is the divergence between value and volume trajectories. EU exports grew by 63.0% in value but only 8.2% in quantity (from 647,619 t to 700,693 t). The gap is almost entirely explained by a 50.7% rise in average export unit values, which climbed from €10,750/t in 2015 to €16,198/t in 2025.

This pattern suggests that the EU's competitive advantage in this product group lies in higher-value-added articles rather than volume-intensive commodity goods. Rising raw material costs, energy prices (particularly during the 2021–2022 inflationary period), and a shift toward more specialized plastic products likely contributed to the price increase.

1.2 Import volumes grew faster than export volumes, but import prices rose less steeply

On the import side, volumes expanded more meaningfully—up 24.3% from 976,848 t to 1,214,483 t—but unit prices rose by a more moderate 28.6% (from €6,896/t to €8,867/t). The persistent price gap between imports (€8,867/t) and exports (€16,198/t) in 2025—export prices being roughly 1.8 times higher—reinforces the interpretation that the EU imports lower-value, often mass-produced plastic articles and exports higher-value, more specialized ones.

1.3 The EU trade surplus widened despite structural import dependence

The trade balance fluctuated considerably over the decade. It turned briefly negative in 2020 (reaching a low of −€563 million), driven by the pandemic-related surge in cheap plastic apparel imports. By 2025, the surplus had recovered to €581 million. The net import reliance remained modest throughout (2.4% in 2015, 2.6% in 2025), indicating that the EU's own production largely covers its consumption needs for this product category. Indeed, EU production volumes grew 22.5% over the period (from 552 million kg to 676 million kg), while production values surged dramatically (+645%), again reflecting the powerful price effect observed across all metrics.

2. Geographic shifts: China's import dominance and the EU's diversifying export footprint

2.1 China consolidated its position as the EU's dominant import supplier

China is by far the largest source of EU imports in CN 3926, accounting for roughly half of total extra-EU import value. Chinese shipments to the EU grew from €2.92 billion in 2015 to €5.08 billion in 2025 (+74.1%), having peaked at €5.87 billion in 2022. This share has increased over time, and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value rose from 2,272 to 2,547 (+12.1%), confirming a growing geographic concentration of EU import supply.

Several emerging suppliers also grew rapidly: Türkiye more than doubled its exports to the EU (+109.7%), and Viet Nam expanded by 28.6%, though from a smaller base. These trends may partly reflect supply chain diversification away from China, but the scale of the shift remains limited in the context of China's overwhelming market share.

2.2 EU exports became more diversified, with Morocco as the standout growth market

In contrast to the concentrating trend on the import side, the export market for EU producers became more diversified. The export-side HHI by value declined from 822 to 723 (−12.0%).

The United Kingdom remained the single largest export destination (€1.40 billion in 2025, +14.8%), but its growth was modest compared to other markets. The United States saw strong growth (+68.2% to €1.90 billion), while Morocco was the fastest-growing major destination (+166.1% to €402 million). Exports to Switzerland (+70.3%) and China (+78.6%) also expanded significantly.

2.3 Germany leads intra-EU production and trade, while Central European members show the strongest export specialisation

Among EU Member States, Germany is by far the largest exporter (€4.48 billion in 2025, +64.3%) and importer (€2.50 billion, +41.8%). France, Italy, and the Netherlands follow. Poland stands out with the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA of 0.26) among large Member States, followed by Czechia (0.24) and Slovenia (0.22), suggesting Central and Eastern European economies have developed a competitive edge in plastic articles production. By contrast, Belgium (RSCA −0.33), Ireland (−0.54), and Greece (−0.65) show low specialisation in this category.

3. Segment-level volatility: the pandemic glove surge, price shocks, and post-crisis rebalancing

3.1 The 392690 catch-all segment dominates both imports and exports

The bulk of EU trade in CN 3926 falls under the 392690 subheading—the residual category covering "other articles of plastics n.e.s." This segment accounted for approximately 77–83% of both import and export values throughout the period. Export prices in this sub-segment rose from €10,586/t in 2015 to €15,922/t in 2025, tracking the broader price-driven growth pattern.

3.2 COVID-19 triggered a dramatic, temporary spike in plastic apparel imports

The 392620 subheading (articles of apparel and clothing accessories of plastic sheeting, including gloves) experienced an extraordinary shock during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020, EU import volumes surged from 112,730 t (2019) to 192,016 t (+70.3%), while import values nearly tripled from €560 million to €1.45 billion. Unit import prices in this sub-segment spiked from €4,965/t in 2019 to €7,537/t in 2020—a reflection of global demand-supply imbalances for protective equipment.

By 2025, volumes and values had largely returned to pre-pandemic levels (91,705 t, €441 million), though still below the 2015 baseline. The coefficient of variation for EU imports from Morocco—a key volatility hotspot in this analysis—stood at 0.53, the highest among all import partners, reflecting its sensitivity to demand shocks rather than structural instability.

3.3 Geopolitical disruptions left a measurable price imprint on exports to Ukraine

Among the supply shock events detected in the data, the most notable occurred in EU exports to Ukraine in 2022, coinciding with the onset of the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The abnormality score of 50.5 and a +19.7% price shift suggest that wartime disruptions—including logistics rerouting, supply urgency, and possible sanctions-related effects—materially altered the price dynamics of plastic article exports to Ukraine. While Ukraine's share in total EU exports remained small (2.0%), the shock illustrates how even minor trade flows can be significantly disrupted by geopolitical events. More broadly, EU exports to Ukraine showed the second-highest volatility among export partners (CV 0.24), behind only Russia (CV 0.44), for which data disruption and sanctions compliance add further uncertainty.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in CN 3926 over the 2015–2025 decade tells a story of nominal growth masking structural complexity. On the surface, a 63% rise in exports and a 60% rise in imports suggest a healthy, expanding market. Beneath the surface, however, the growth was overwhelmingly price-driven: physical export volumes rose by only 8%, and even import volumes grew by a modest 24%. The EU maintained a consistent, if small, trade surplus, underpinned by a persistent price premium on exported goods—reflecting the bloc's positioning in higher-value plastic articles.

Geographically, China's dominance on the import side deepened, with a rising concentration index, while the EU's export markets became more diversified. Central European Member States—particularly Poland and Czechia—emerged as the most specialised exporters within the EU. At the product level, the COVID-19 pandemic produced the decade's most dramatic distortion, temporarily transforming the 392620 (plastic apparel and gloves) sub-segment into a high-volume, high-value trade flow before a return to normality. Looking ahead, risks related to supply chain concentration (notably reliance on China), geopolitical disruption, and the EU's evolving regulatory stance on plastics will shape the next phase of this market's development.