Market evolution: Plastic office supplies (CN 392610) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade evolution of EU plastic office and school supplies (customs code 392610) from 2015 to 2025, drawing exclusively on the provided dataset. The analysis reveals a decade characterized by a structural shift: a significant contraction of the EU's export capacity and a simultaneous increase in import dependence, leading to a widening trade deficit and heightened vulnerability to global supply dynamics. These trends are reflected across trade values, volumes, and the geographical concentration of partners.

Declining Export Volumes and a Widening Trade Deficit

The EU's trade balance in plastic office supplies has deteriorated markedly, moving from a deficit of approximately €120 million in 2015 to nearly €175 million by 2025. This widening gap stems from divergent trends in exports and imports.

Exports have contracted sharply in volume. The quantity of EU exports fell by 48.5%, from 20,268 tonnes in 2015 to 10,428 tonnes in 2025. Despite this, export values declined by a more moderate 29.3%, indicating that EU export prices increased by 37.4% over the period.
Imports have become more price-intensive. While import volumes decreased by 11.3% (from 83,929 to 74,460 tonnes), the total value of imports increased by 7.7% to €262.8 million. This is explained by a 21.4% rise in average import prices.
The EU's self-sufficiency has eroded. The net import reliance surged from -1.5% in 2015 to 25.3% in 2025, confirming a shift from near balance to significant dependence on foreign suppliers.

Shifting Geographies of Trade and Production

The map of the EU's trade in plastic office supplies has been redrawn, with a clear consolidation of import sources and a collapse in domestic production.

China has solidified its dominance in EU imports. Imports from China grew by 29.9% in value, reaching €184.9 million and accounting for 77.5% of EU import value by 2025. In contrast, other key partners like the United Kingdom and Switzerland saw steep declines in their export sales to the EU.
EU export markets have become more concentrated in Europe. The top destination for EU exports remains the United Kingdom, although its share decreased by 32.4%. Exports to Norway collapsed by 60.1%, and exports to Russia virtually ceased (-94.0%).
EU domestic production has halved. According to production data, EU production volumes fell by 50.3% and production values by 61.3% between 2015 and 2025. This decline underpins the increased import reliance.
Specialisation within the EU has diverged. Country-level analysis shows that Poland and Latvia have developed a revealed comparative advantage (RCA > 1) in this product, while countries like Bulgaria and Romania have become highly unspecialised (RCA < 0.1).

Vulnerability on the Rise: Increased Dependence and Price Shocks

The market's structure now exhibits greater vulnerability, characterized by higher import dependency, increased supplier concentration, and exposure to price shocks.

The EU's import market is more concentrated. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value increased by 40.7%, indicating greater reliance on a smaller number of suppliers, primarily China.
Price volatility has been significant, especially from key suppliers. An analysis of volatility and shocks identifies notable price shocks from China in 2021 and Turkey in 2022. The United Kingdom, a major partner, also exhibits very high import volatility.
Trade intensity has increased substantially. The trade intensity index rose from 26.8% to 47.2%, meaning the EU has become more engaged in the global trade of this product, amplifying its exposure to international market disruptions.
The Netherlands and Poland have become major import gateways. Within the EU, import values grew by 81.3% and 129.5% respectively in the Netherlands and Poland, while traditional hubs like Germany and Belgium saw declines.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU plastic office supplies market has undergone a fundamental transformation. The region has transitioned from a more balanced market to one with a significant and growing trade deficit, driven by plummeting domestic production and increasing import dependence. The import side has become more vulnerable due to heightened concentration on China and greater price volatility. These dynamics point to a market that is more integrated into global supply chains but also more susceptible to external shocks and shifts in global production patterns.