Market evolution: Plastic packaging (CN 3923) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of European Union trade with non-EU countries in CN 3923 — Articles for the conveyance or packaging of goods, of plastics; stoppers, lids, caps and other closures, of plastics over the period 2015–2025. The product heading encompasses a wide range of items — from flexible sacks and bags to rigid boxes, plastic bottles, closures and spools — making it one of the most commercially significant categories within the plastics sector. The decade under review was shaped by structural shifts including the post-COVID recovery, the 2021–2022 energy and raw-material cost surge, evolving EU circular-economy regulation, and geopolitical realignments that redirected trade flows.

Prices Lift Trade Values Well Beyond Physical Volumes

A defining feature of the 2015–2025 period is that monetary value grew substantially faster than physical volume on both the import and export sides, signalling that unit-value inflation was a major driver of headline trade expansion.

Both exports and imports expanded strongly, yet unit values did most of the heavy lifting

Over the full period, EU exports grew from €4.46 billion to €6.59 billion (+47.6 %), while import value rose from €3.94 billion to €6.18 billion (+56.8 %). Physical quantities, however, increased by only 22.5 % (exports: 1.19 Mt → 1.45 Mt) and 26.8 % (imports: 1.15 Mt → 1.45 Mt). Average export prices rose from €3,758/t to €4,528/t (+20.5 %), and import prices climbed from €3,442/t to €4,258/t (+23.7 %).

Prices spiked notably in 2021–2022, when energy and petrochemical feedstock costs surged across Europe, and again partially unwound in 2023. Even so, by 2025 both export and import unit values remained well above their 2015 baselines, indicating that the price shock was not fully transitory.

EU domestic production expanded alongside trade, confirming structural demand growth

The underlying strength of the sector is confirmed by EU production data. Production quantity rose from 81.8 billion kg to 135.9 billion kg (+66.1 %), while production value nearly tripled from €19.1 billion to €49.8 billion (+160.3 %). The fact that domestic output grew faster than trade volumes suggests that much of the incremental production served intra-EU demand and replaced imports in certain segments.

The trade surplus narrowed in absolute terms as import growth outpaced exports

Despite the EU remaining a net exporter throughout the period, the trade balance shrank from €518 million in 2015 to €402 million in 2025 (−22.4 %). The peak surplus was reached in 2022 at €934 million, largely driven by elevated export prices that year. Meanwhile, trade intensity (total trade as a share of production value) rose from 14.9 % to 22.7 %, and export propensity (exports as a share of production value) climbed from 8.3 % to 13.3 %. The EU plastic packaging sector thus became markedly more internationally integrated, even as its net position eroded slightly.

Emerging Economies Drive Import Growth While Exports Diversify

Geographic analysis reveals a clear pattern: the EU's import base shifted toward fast-growing emerging economies, while export destinations diversified more broadly.

Türkiye, China and Serbia recorded the steepest import gains over the decade

Among the EU's top import partners, three stand out for their rapid growth:

China nearly doubled its share of EU plastic-packaging imports, rising from €961 million to €1.84 billion. This reflects both China's entrenched competitive advantage in high-volume, lower-cost packaging and the EU's growing appetite for finished plastic goods. Türkiye's near-tripling (+122.8 %) likely reflects both cost competitiveness and the deepening of the EU–Turkey customs union framework. Serbia's explosive growth (+297.5 %) is consistent with the country's increasing integration into European supply chains, aided by the EU–Serbia Stabilisation and Association Agreement. By contrast, the United Kingdom — the second-largest import source — grew by only 5.7 %, reflecting the dampening effect of post-Brexit trade friction on what had been a largely frictionless flow.

Export destinations diversified, with Morocco and Serbia posting outsized gains

On the export side, the most striking developments were the rapid expansion of shipments to nearby emerging markets:

Morocco's nearly fourfold increase (+268.2 %) mirrors the country's rapid industrialisation and its role as a nearshoring platform for European firms, particularly in automotive and agri-food packaging. Serbia again appears with the highest growth rate (+313.3 %), reinforcing the picture of deep Balkan integration into EU supply networks. The United Kingdom remained the single largest export destination by a wide margin (€1.52 billion), though its growth rate of 22.6 % was modest — well below the export average — consistent with the drag of post-Brexit customs procedures.

Import supply became more concentrated while export markets broadened

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) tells a clear divergence story. Import concentration by value rose from 1,324 to 1,430 (+8.0 %), driven by China's growing dominance. Export concentration by value, conversely, fell from 1,121 to 937 (−16.4 %), indicating that the EU sold to a wider and more balanced set of partners in 2025 than it did in 2015.

This asymmetry is relevant from a resilience perspective. The EU's import reliance remained negative throughout (confirming a structural net-export position), but the increasing import concentration creates exposure to supply disruptions from a narrower set of origins. Price volatility was highest for imports from Malaysia (coefficient of variation 0.51), the United Kingdom (0.33) and Serbia (0.24). On the export side, Russia (CV 0.40) and Morocco (0.29) exhibited the greatest volatility, reflecting geopolitical disruptions (Russia) and the rapid scaling of a newer market (Morocco). Notably, detected price shocks in 2022 included an extreme spike in export prices to Israel (abnormality score 170.6) and a significant import price shock from Switzerland (abnormality 8.5), both consistent with the broader energy-driven cost surge of that year.

Among EU Member States, Germany dominated both flows — importing €1.23 billion and exporting €1.52 billion in 2025 — followed by France and Italy. The fastest growth among major exporting Member States came from Spain (+87.8 %) and Poland (+84.1 %), both of which have expanded their plastics manufacturing bases significantly. In terms of revealed comparative advantage, Poland (RSCA 0.24) and Austria (0.19) stood out as specialised exporters, while large economies like Belgium and Ireland showed negative specialisation, indicating that their substantial trade volumes are driven by their logistical hub roles rather than by comparative advantage in production.

Rigid Packaging Leads a Restructuring of the Product Mix

A closer look at the seven sub-headings within CN 3923 reveals that growth was far from uniform. Rigid packaging — specifically boxes, cases and crates (392310) — emerged as the clear outperformer in export value, while flexible packaging showed divergent patterns between imports and exports.

Boxes and crates nearly doubled in export value and became the EU's top export segment

The most striking product-level development was the rise of 392310 (Boxes, cases, crates) as the EU's leading export segment. Export value surged from €953 million to €1.84 billion (+93.2 %), with volume rising from 321 kt to 521 kt (+62.2 %). In 2015, closures (392350) held the top position in export value; by 2025, boxes and crates had overtaken it by a margin of nearly €480 million.

On the import side, boxes and crates also expanded rapidly: value grew from €720 million to €1.30 billion (+79.8 %) and volume from 211 kt to 356 kt (+68.2 %), narrowing the gap with ethylene bags (392321), which remained the largest import category.

Closures and bottles maintained steady growth driven by higher unit values

Closures (392350) — stoppers, lids, caps — represent a high-value, lower-volume segment. Export value grew from €1.07 billion to €1.36 billion (+27.5 %), but export volume actually declined slightly (190 kt → 183 kt, −3.9 %), meaning that the entire value increase came from rising unit prices (€5,618/t → €7,447/t). This is consistent with closures being a more technology- and design-intensive product where EU manufacturers command premium pricing. Imports of closures followed a similar pattern: value rose 71.7 % while volume increased only 5.8 %, with the average import price climbing from €5,108/t to €8,287/t.

Bottles and flasks (392330) showed moderate volume growth on both sides. Export volume edged up from 207 kt to 223 kt (+7.5 %), while export value rose by a more robust 33.3 % to €1.01 billion. This segment includes both small consumer bottles and larger industrial containers, and its trajectory reflects stable end-market demand (food, beverages, cosmetics) combined with price pass-through from higher resin costs.

Flexible packaging faced divergent trends between import and export flows

Polyethylene sacks and bags (392321) remained the single largest import category by volume (537 kt in 2025), but its export volume was essentially flat (207 kt → 205 kt). The segment is mature and price-sensitive, and the EU appears to be a structural net importer of this high-volume, lower-complexity product. Import volume grew from 433 kt to 537 kt (+23.9 %), with much of this supply coming from China and Türkiye.

Non-ethylene bags (392329) showed the fastest import value growth of any sub-heading (+97.8 %, from €310 million to €613 million), with volume rising from 82 kt to 113 kt (+37.5 %). This catch-up may reflect growing demand for specialised film bags (e.g. vacuum packaging, compostable alternatives) that fall outside the polyethylene classification. The smallest segment — spools, cops and bobbins (392340) — recorded the lowest growth in both value (+13.1 % exports, +14.1 % imports) and volume, consistent with its niche industrial role.

Conclusion

The EU trade in plastic packaging (CN 3923) expanded substantially over 2015–2025, with both export and import values rising by roughly half. However, this headline growth masks important structural shifts. First, price increases — particularly the 2021–2022 energy and feedstock cost spike — accounted for the majority of the value expansion, as physical volumes grew at roughly half the pace. Second, the geographic landscape was reshaped by the rapid rise of Türkiye, China and Serbia on the import side, and by the diversification of export markets toward Morocco and Serbia. This made import supply more concentrated while export destinations became more balanced. Third, the product mix tilted decisively toward rigid packaging: boxes and crates became the EU's leading export category, overtaking closures, while flexible bags remained a high-volume but lower-growth segment. Overall, the EU plastic packaging sector became more trade-intensive and more export-oriented, but its net trade surplus narrowed — a combination that reflects both the competitiveness of EU producers in higher-value segments and the growing import penetration of standardised packaging from lower-cost origins.